WNBA 2025 free agency: Predictions, biggest questions and more

Free agency is imminent, but things are moving relatively slowly in the WNBA world. Then the dam burst on Thursday.

Sabally Sato, considered one of the top free agents in 2025, announced during a media interview with Unrivaled that she will not be returning to the Dallas Wings, where she spent the first five seasons of her career. of.

A former WNBA first-team talent and Olympian for the German national team, Sabally will undoubtedly become one of the most coveted stars on the market as free agency begins this month. The most likely scenario: The Wings will core Sabally — similar to a franchise tag in the NFL — and trade her to her new destination for a return.

From January 11 to January 20, teams can make qualifying offers to players with restricted, reserved or core eligibility. Negotiations will officially begin on January 21st, but players will not be able to sign until February 1st.

How much change can we see across the league? Which other players might be on the move, and which teams might see big changes in a matter of weeks? We're about to find out. In the meantime, our ESPN WNBA experts take a deep dive into what to expect and focus on this year's free agency market.

Aside from Sabally, who are the big-name players most likely to find new teams in free agency — and where might they go?

Alexa Philip: I'm paying close attention to what happens to Kelsey Plumb. Las Vegas Aces fans haven't had to worry about free agency in recent years, as the team's core four have always signed extensions before hitting the market. But Plumb didn't do that in 2025. With the departures of Becky Hammon's assistants Natalie Nakase (to the Golden State Warriors) and Tyler Marsh (to Chicago), Las Vegas' Turnover is already so high. Maybe Plumb will be the next big one to go — but probably not, unless the Aces take her first so they can get something in return.

Kevin Pelton: Jewell Lloyd is not a free agent, but her trade request puts her in that group. Where Loyd lands may depend on other sports. For example, if Plum pushes to leave the Aces, Loyd would be a logical replacement, filling a role similar to the one Sue Bird and Brianna Stewart played when they were teammates in Seattle. Alternatively, Loyd's return to Chicago would provide guard balance for the Sky's young post duo of Camila Cardoso and Angel Reese, or Loyd could provide a proven unit for the Golden State Valkyrie face.

Michael Voepel: Brionna Jones, who spent eight seasons of her WNBA career with the Connecticut Sun, is a steady, reliable veteran post player who can be a part of a team looking to make a championship run. A key player for the team. Perhaps the 29-year-old can reunite with Stephanie White, her coach of the past two years with the Suns, in Indiana.

The free-agent decisions of her Suns teammates Alyssa Thomas and Devana Bonner will also be closely watched. Bonner, who turns 38 in August, won two WNBA titles in Phoenix, while Thomas, who turns 33 in April, spent 11 seasons at Connecticut. Looking for his first title.

Which other players do you follow most closely?

Pelton: I'm looking at the position of the wings. The free-agent market is flooded with young point guards and experienced post players, making wings — especially strong defenders — the rarest commodity. Now, Gabby Williams will likely be available early in the season, and she's the kind of two-way role player that's on a title contender. Teams unable to acquire Williams will likely look at three-time aces Alyssa Clark and Kennedy Burke as 3-and-D alternatives unless they can figure out a way to get DiJonai Carrington in restricted free agency players.

Philip: Connecticut’s big three — Thomas, Bonner, and Jones — will likely all leave the organization, meaning we’ll begin a new era of Suns basketball in 2025. Bonner spent a long career in Phoenix before coming to the Suns. Uncasville, Thomas and Jones have never played for another team, so seeing them in different uniforms will take some getting used to.

And then there are players like Diana Taurasi and Elena Delle Donne. Taurasi's 2024 season may be considered her last, but the 42-year-old great has yet to announce a decision on whether to retire or return for her 21st WNBA season. Delle Donne, 35, has been in limbo after missing the entire 2024 season. What will happen to her and her career?

Vopel: Sabally, who turns 27 in April, is in her prime but faces a big problem as she has been hampered by injuries for much of her career in Dallas. She played 38 games in the 2023 season when she was named to the WNBA first team, but played fewer than 20 games in each of her other four years in the league. Will a team like Indiana make a trade offer for Sabally as a key contributor to a championship? Or has she told Wings where she prefers to be?

Which teams will be most affected by free agent movement?

Pelton: The Indiana Fever has the biggest advantage in free agency. With Aliyah Boston and Kaitlin Clark on their rookie contracts, Indiana has the ability to use Kelsey Mitchell's core designation and add a max (or supermax) player. The Fever positions are center and backcourt — unless Mitchell is traded — so they should be a combination of the top forwards on the market. I'm curious to see what the appeal of playing with Clark would be to a free agent. With the right additions, Indiana can improve its chances of winning a playoff series for the first time since reaching the Finals in 2015.

Philip: Loyd's trade request means the Seattle Storm will enter free agency with essentially three players under contract – Skylar Diggins-Smith, Ezi Magbegor and Jordan Horston (They still have Nikka Mir, but she's recovering from an ACL injury). Task one is to ensure that Nika Ogwumike, who does not meet the core qualifications, is re-signed. Even if that happens, could the Storm attract another star linebacker to replace Loyd? Can they still bolster their depth after that was an issue last year? These questions will determine whether Seattle can truly compete or take a step back from last year's 25-15 record.

Vopel: The Phoenix Mercury have made the playoffs 14 times in the past 16 years, but if Taurasi does retire, they will enter a new era. Center Brittney Griner is expected to re-sign with the team, where she has spent her entire 11-season career. But will the Mercury be in the market for another top free agent position? It's hard for a franchise to rebrand itself after a franchise icon leaves; after Tamika Catchings retired in 2016, the Pacers waited until 2024 to get started. Can the Mercury land a free agent that puts them firmly in a playoff spot?

Which teams have the most work to do in free agency?

Pelton: Connecticut has just one starter from last year's semifinal team (Tessa Harris) under contract, plus guard Marina Mabrey. Given that Carrington is limited, the Suns have control over whether she returns, and they could use Thomas' core title. But Jones is completely unrestricted after being cored out over the past two years, and so is Bonner. It seemed bigger changes might be coming after Connecticut hired Belgian national team coach Rasheed Meziane to replace White. It wouldn't be surprising for the Suns to pursue Belgian star Emma Meesseman if they were interested in returning to the WNBA, but creating enough cap space would certainly mean saying goodbye to one of their current All-Stars. one.

Philip: The Chicago Sky currently has the second-most cap space behind the Valkyries and Suns and only has two players on protected trades. After missing the playoffs and hiring Taylor Marsh to replace Teresa Weatherspoon as head coach, general manager Jeff Pagliocca will be tasked with building a stronger roster around Reese and Ka Dozo. Can he attract top talent? Chicago, in particular, is in dire need of some three-point shooters. How important is it actually to re-sign Chenedy Carter?

Vopel: The Atlanta Dream don't necessarily have a lot of work to do — they have seven players under contract, including standouts Ryan Howard and Alyssa Gray — but they have a new coach in Carl Smesko , what changes might they make in free agency to maximize this team's capabilities? The Dream made the playoffs last season, but Tanisha Wright still lost her head coaching job (she's now an assistant coach with the Sky). Is Atlanta considered an attractive free agent destination?

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How will the Golden State Warriors impact free agency this year?

Pelton: Valkyrie will raise salaries around the league. They have a league-high $1.2 million in cap space, according to HerHoopStats.com, which means they'll be looking for stars. Depending on the numbers it acquires, Golden State could aggressively target role players or force other teams to pay more to replace key contributors they lost to Valkyrie. Regardless, the addition of a 13th team is good news for free agents.

Philip: I expect the Valkyrie to make some big moves in free agency this year. Even if they don't get everyone they want in 2025, this January could just be a precursor to 2026 when most of the league's roster will be available. In a way, this could be the year to prove to players and others how serious WNBA owner Joe Lacob is about his goal of winning a championship within five years.

Vopel: The WNBA hasn't had a true expansion team since the 2008 Dream Team. They struggled that year, going 4-30, but drafted Angel McCoughtry with the No. 1 pick in 2009 and made the playoffs. Atlanta reached the WNBA Finals in 2010, 2011 and 2013. This was well before the more robust free agency movement that came with the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, but it shows how quickly a new team can make an impact — something we know the Golden State Warriors front office is pushing hard to achieve.

What's your bold prediction for free agency?

Pelton: The Valkyries traded a package that included the No. 5 pick to make Plum the face of the franchise, reuniting her with former Aces assistant coach Nakaze, now the head coach of the Golden State Warriors.

Philip: We will see at least three big-name stars being cored and then traded to other teams.

Vopel: The allure of playing with young stars Clark and Boston, combined with the current excitement among Indiana fans, will help the Fever land a big name in free agency or via trade — something that seemed unlikely just a few years ago.