What the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas means for the world

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It is unclear whether the ceasefire in Gaza will take effect. But if the war does end, what does it mean for the world?

For Israel, this impact appears to be a double-edged sword. The country's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can argue that he has turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas has been severely damaged, if not completely destroyed. The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, the most armed and threatening part of Iran's “axis of resistance,” has also been weakened. Iran and Israel engaged in direct fighting. But most of Iran’s missiles have failed to penetrate the defenses of Israel and its allies—and the Islamic Republic’s position looks weaker than it has in decades.

At a strategic level, Israel is emerging from this conflict as a superpower in the Middle East, with military deterrence fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But on the contrary, Israel's reputation has suffered tremendous damage. Some 46,000 people are believed to have been killed in the Israeli offensive, which has left Gaza in ruins. Netanyahu has been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court, putting him on the same legal footing as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it more difficult to travel abroad.

In international opinion polls, support for Israel has plummeted. Young people – even in the United States – are now more hostile to the country. An April Pew Research Center survey concluded: “Young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than the people of Israel.” One-third of adults under 30 said they fully or mostly sympathize with the Palestinians people, while 14% sided with Israel.

Israelis can hope that opinion will soften over time—especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House are more important than enemies on America's campuses.

But Trump's friendship may not be unconditional. The far right in Israel is visibly alarmed that the incoming U.S. administration has thrown its weight behind the ceasefire and hostage release deal negotiated by the Biden White House. Israel had hoped that Trump would be able to give Trump a free hand and deal with the Palestinian issue as he saw fit, but this hope has been dealt a blow.

Trump’s decision now to push for peace may reflect two main factors. The first is that he wants to take credit for the deal and the release of the hostages. Second, while Israel enjoys enthusiastic support from the Republican right, it is not the only important country in the region. Trump's first overseas trip during his first term as president was to Saudi Arabia.

The incoming Trump administration may now push to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — a key goal of the Biden administration. This could provide a glimmer of hope for the Palestinians, as it is widely believed that Saudi Arabia's price for normalization will be tangible progress toward a Palestinian state. However, this is likely to be a price that the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which may mean that the Saudi-Israeli deal remains a mirage.

The war in Gaza also has global and regional significance. One of the reasons the United States and its Western allies are reluctant to put too much pressure on Israel is that they view Iran as a common enemy. Over the past year, Western officials have expressed with increasing frequency their belief that they are now waging a global struggle against a loose “axis of adversaries” consisting of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

By weakening Iran, Israel also weakens this axis. The fall of Assad's regime in Syria was largely a ripple effect of Israel's devastating attacks on Hezbollah, a key ally of Bashar Assad.

The collapse of Assad's power in turn dealt a major blow to both Iran and Russia, which had intervened militarily on Assad's behalf. Russia had used Syria as a base for power projection and now had to withdraw. Paradoxically, Israel itself has reacted to Assad's fall much more cautiously than many in the West, fearing that jihadist forces will move into Syria's power vacuum.

The final casualty of the Gaza war is the “rules-based international order” promoted by the Biden administration. After the October 7 attack, the United States expressed sympathy and support for Israel and therefore tolerated Israel's frequent violations of international humanitarian law during its attacks on Gaza. Restoring a rules-based order may be as difficult as the physical reconstruction of Gaza.

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