Forecasters suspended a "particularly hazardous" fire weather warning for Los Angeles and Ventura counties Tuesday afternoon due to weaker-than-expected winds. But winds are expected to pick up and warnings will be issued again before dawn on Wednesday.
Traditional red flag warnings — warnings of severe wildfire behavior if a fire breaks out — remain in effect throughout Southern California, including in Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties. parts of Santa Barbara County and San Luis Obispo County.
"We're not out of the woods yet, and people need to remain vigilant for fast-moving fires," said Ryan Kittle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Oxnard office.
"The winds were definitely not showing up last night and into today - definitely breezy in a lot of areas - but just not as strong as we feared," Kittel said. "That's good news for firefighting."
But extreme fire weather conditions are expected to return at 3am on Wednesday, with "particularly hazardous conditions" continuing until 3pm from then on, with winds likely to start to increase as early as Tuesday night.
Gusts could reach 50 to 70 mph in the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and 30 to 50 mph along the coast and in the valleys. Winds are expected to be strong, but as expected for days, significantly weaker than last week's historic storm that fueled the rapid spread of the Palisade and Eaton fires, the most destructive in modern California history One of the fires.
"We're still worried about the next wind peak," although meteorologists are continuing to refine their forecasts, Kittel said.
Winds are expected to blow from the east, with Ventura County expected to be at particular risk if a fire breaks out. Winds in the mountains of northern Ventura County may be stronger than typically seen during Santa Ana wind events.
During last week's event, northerly winds hit Los Angeles County.
Kittle said forecasters "were not looking at the wind damage we had last week or the fire explosions that were happening in some of these fires." But "even though it was weaker," he said, "it was still an exciting one. Worrying time. The weather is still dry and winds would be a concern on any given day.
"It does look like we have one more round to worry about," he added, "before things generally improve."
On Wednesday, wind gusts could reach 33 mph in Irvine and Hemet; 38 mph in Oxnard and Ontario; 39 mph in Temecula; 40 mph in Big Bear Lake; and Canoga Park ( Canoga Park, Fillmore, Santa Clarita and Thousand Oaks 45 mph; Pyramid Lake 52 mph; Acton 53 mph; Beaumont's speed is 60 mph.
Peak gusts elsewhere will be much weaker — 9 mph in downtown Los Angeles and Long Beach, 10 mph in Redondo Beach, 14 mph in Covina, Santa Barbara, according to the weather service. Pulled to 15 mph.
However, the air in Los Angeles and Ventura counties is expected to be quite dry, with relative humidity as low as 8%.
Red flag fire weather warnings will largely expire by 6 p.m. Wednesday but will remain in place for some locations in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, including the Grapevine stretch of Interstate 5, the western San Gabriel Mountains and the Santa Susana Mountains. to 3 p.m. Thursday.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the red flag warning has been lifted for the San Gabriel Valley. Kittle said some foothill areas may still have breezy conditions, but Santa Ana winds are not expected to reach the valley floor.
Cold weather is forecast for the evening this week, with lows of 19 degrees in Lancaster, 39 degrees in Redondo Beach, 41 degrees in downtown Los Angeles, 43 degrees in Long Beach and Canoga Park, 46 degrees in Covina, and 46 degrees in St. Clarita is 50 degrees.
Fire weather conditions are expected to improve Wednesday night into Saturday. But there is a moderate risk of another round of red flag warnings starting around Monday.
Southern California is going through a painful drought, with one of the driest winters on record, which is the main reason fire risk is so high. Forecasters say the chance of rainfall remains low through January 25.
Downtown Los Angeles has barely received a drop of water in months — just 0.16 inches since Oct. 1. Normally, at this point in the water year, downtown Los Angeles should receive 5.45 inches of rain. The annual average is 14.25 inches.
The combination of fragile dry vegetation, dry air, and strong winds resulted in severe wildfire behavior.