Will the outbreak of the border threaten Indian investment?

The report comes from CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter this week, which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary about emerging powers and the large companies behind their rapid rise. Like what you saw? You can subscribe here.

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Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldiers remained vigilant at the postal entrance of the Waga border in India-Pakistan, about 35 kilometers from Amritsar on April 24, 2025. India took a series of punitive diplomatic measures against Pakistan on April 23, accusing Islamabad of supporting "transnational terrorist attacks on Kashshmir" in Islamabad, which made Islamabad "support Islamabad." (Photo by Narinder Nanu/AFP) (Photo by Narinder Nanu/AFP via Getty Images

Narinder Nanu | AFP | Getty Images

Indian stock markets have emerged from weeks of turmoil and have surpassed the latest India-Pakistan level before the outbreak.

This is not surprising, though, because for an increasing number of global investors focusing on global investors in India, this border crisis, while severe, is now seen as a variable in a more complex equation.

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Although India and Pakistan are clearly moving towards armed conflict, Kieron Kader, deputy fund manager of the algorithm's Indian subcontinental fund, told CNBC that the incident "will not significantly change the overall rate of return."

Instead, the subsequent volatility is a “gift to long-term investors,” Carder added. He bought shares in the New York Securities Trading List makytrip,,,,, Lemon Tree Hotel And Samhi after falling down, just saw them strong since then.

He is not the only one with this view.

Anand Gupta, principal portfolio manager at Allianz India Equity Fund, noted that the Indian stock market showed "significant resilience" during the peak of the crisis, with MSCI India Despite the surge in India's vix or "fear gauges", the index only saw a "moderate correction" of about 1.5%.

He attributed it to “India’s strong economic fundamentals backed by investor confidence” and “a limited historical pattern of market disruption during geopolitical outbreaks of this nature”.

Indeed, the risks of recent military outbreaks seem to be offset by what many consider to be an attractive investment destination. Research by Barclays Credit Team also noted that “the macro impact of India and Pakistan is limited” in recent conflicts.

But while hostilities may not panic investors, rising geopolitical tensions may pose risks in the long run.

There were some surprises in this conflict. The events earlier this month marked a significant escalation of previous skirmishes between the two nuclear-weapon states. The two claimed for the first time that they had attacked opposing territory.

By contrast, the 2019 Balakot strike caused India to attack locations near the border. During the Kagir War in 1999, the Indian Air Force was mainly preserved in India. For decades, most of the conflict between the two remained primarily on land.

While investors may be insensitive to India-Pakistan tensions, given the wider geopolitical situation around the world, the politically escalating willingness to conflict has attracted attention to some.

"Geopolitical India is not in good shape. These countries are now getting closer by war. Gal added that China's support for Pakistan is also helpless," said Venugopal Garre, head of India Research at Bernstein to clients on May 7.

India has an unstable relationship with China (its largest neighbor), showing certain qualities similar to its relationship with Pakistan.

China and India have a long border with many points of divergence that has not been resolved for decades. The two countries also launched a war in 1962 due to border disputes. Recently, in 2020, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a conflict with Chinese troops in the controversial Himalayan border area.

While Kader of AhQuility believes that the actual military conflict between the two Asian giants is "very unlikely", he admits that this situation will eventually be a "very terrible situation" that may require "global intervention" and significantly raises the risk premium in India.

This situation is considered almost impossible because economically, there is an interdependent relationship between the two countries.

"India needs China to establish its low-end rally franchise, and China may see India as a potential market (its trade surplus with India is large and may not want to risk losses)." Bernstein noted.

Historically, however, India and Pakistan have also been tied together economically and culturally. However, recent events have shown that when violence breaks out, it is difficult to predict how far both sides go. Investors may want to pay attention to risks.

Need to know

Trump does not want to build Apple products in India. The US President said he told apple CEO Tim Cook believes he does not want the tech giant to build its products in India, diversify the company from China and urges him to go to U.S. residents.

Consumer inflation in India cooled down in April. Title inflation fell to 3.16% from 3.34% in March, down from 3.27% expected by economists voted by Reuters. Price increases are the sixth consecutive month. The country's main inflation indicator is the 2.69% figure in April, the country's key inflation indicator to 1.78%.

Wholesale prices in India also fell. In April, wholesale inflation was the agent of producer prices, rising 0.85% per year, well below the 2.05% last month, marking the highest growth rate in more than a year. The reading is also lower than forecasts for economists' Reuters poll. Encouraging consumers and wholesale inflation-based readings opens the door for the Reserve Bank of India to cut more tax rates.

India has raised the idea of ​​retaliatory tariffs on the United States. Even though India is reportedly engaging in a trade agreement with the United States, South Asian countries proposed to the World Trade Organization on May 12 that it would withdraw its tariff concessions to the United States, which would reach the $1.91 billion tax collected from U.S. imports.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is fragile but intact. The two countries reached an agreement to stop military operations on May 10, but each other alleged that they violated military operations. That is, the peak of armed conflict has been greatly alleviated from the peak of hostilities that began on May 6, with India saying it was a response to radical attacks in Pahargam, Jamu and Kashmir last month, with 26 people killed. In posts about the Truth Society, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped find a “solution” about Kashmir.

What happened in the market?

this Nifty 50 The index closed above 25,000 points for the first time since October, as revenue this week was 4.4%. The index has risen 6% this year.

The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield fell to 6.23%, down about 10 basis points from last week.

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India's high commissioner of Singapore Shilpak Ambule said on CNBC this week that India will not distinguish between "terrorists and government terrorist sponsors" and further discussed India's views on the conflict with Pakistan that broke out earlier this month. Ambule stressed that India is still building trade relations with countries such as the United States, the European Union and New Zealand during hostilities with Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Investments, said India is the "most exciting place" now, as it will replace China in many fields. For example, Apple has moved some of its manufacturing and export operations to India. Mobius also said Prime Minister Narendra Modi did a good job of cutting down Indian bureaucracy and simplifying the country's infrastructure and economy.

What happened next week?

India's trade digital balance will be more censored than usual given U.S. President Donald Trump stressed the imbalance in trade between the United States and its partners. Meanwhile, the Integrity Infrabuild of the construction company was listed on Tuesday, followed by Accretion Pharmaceuticals on Wednesday.

May 16: India's trade balance in April

May 20: Integrity developer IPO

May 21: IPO of hyperplasia drugs

May 22: Indian HSBC PMI flash data May