On January 17, after more than a year of war, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement. The three-phase deal will begin next week and will halt fighting for 42 days. During this period, Israel will withdraw its troops from the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip and allow aid convoys to enter. Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The two sides will continue talks in the hope of securing the next two phases of the deal, which would free the remaining hostages and make the ceasefire permanent.

Given the toll the war has taken on Gaza - at least 46,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Oct. 7 attack - people around the world expressed relief at the agreement. But disasters and regional conflicts have changed the world, and the future is bleak. To better understand what a ceasefire means for Israel, Palestine and the Middle East, diplomatic Turn to Mark Lynch, professor of political science and director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University. Senior editor Daniel Block spoke with Lynch shortly before Israel's cabinet approved the deal. Their conversations have been edited for length and clarity.

What do you expect to happen in Gaza once the fighting stops??

Anything that stops the killings and allows Palestinians in Gaza to rebuild is welcome. But there's a lot that could go wrong about what actually happens. I will be keeping an eye on humanitarian aid to see how things develop. If you get really large amounts of aid, not just food and medicine but also materials to rebuild crumbling infrastructure, that could do huge good in alleviating the suffering of Palestinian civilians and putting the ceasefire on a solid path. But amid the conflict, Israel agreed to increase humanitarian aid under pressure from the United States. And in most cases, this doesn't happen. So it's entirely possible to finally end the direct violence, but the massive amounts of aid on paper won't actually mean much to the local people. People may still not be able to return to their homes and start rebuilding.

Do you think Israel and Hamas can abide by the agreement??

This will be very difficult. Unfortunately, my feeling is that it is unlikely that we will move beyond phase one and move towards permanent peace. There are countless spoiler opportunities for both sides, and the details of the next steps in the agreement remain deeply divided. There are many people in Israel who want to see the war continue indefinitely. Maybe they want to keep northern Gaza as a permanent buffer zone. Maybe they wanted to reduce the population and resettle completely. Maybe they want to destroy Hamas completely, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially promised. Or maybe they want permanent war as a cover for aggression elsewhere, such as in the West Bank.

On the Palestinian side, there are many opportunities to derail violence by hard-liners, radical factions who don't like how things are going and people who just want revenge for all the terrible things that have been done to them. If such violence occurs, Israelis will not respond aggressively. Even if such violence does not occur, Israel could claim they have evidence that Hamas is regrouping in ways they say violate the ceasefire. Then they would return to bomb. So I think anyone who looks at this agreement can see how fragile it is.

U.S. negotiators have been urging Israel to agree to such a deal for months. Why do you think the government is only signing now??

The Joe Biden administration has been pushing for this deal for a long time, but they have never been willing to put any substantial or significant force behind it. They never really put any conditions on the weapons delivery. Instead, what we get is an endless series of complaints from U.S. officials that Israel doesn’t do this or won’t allow it, and then announces another arms shipment. So if I were Netanyahu, focused on my political survival and believing that Washington wouldn't really do anything, I'd really have no reason to take Biden's team seriously. This is definitely a diplomatic misstep.

But with a new government in place, Netanyahu has every reason to try to turn a new leaf. There is a feeling within Israel that the war in Gaza is essentially over. With current methods, there is nothing more that can be done. Therefore, temporary peace is available to Donald Trump. The question is what they expect in exchange, such as a green light to expand control of the West Bank.

What the end of the war means for U.S. goals in the Middle East, such as the Israeli-Saudi normalization agreement?

Across the Arab world, the prevailing feeling is that the United States aided, abetted, and armed the genocide of the Palestinian people. A ceasefire after so many people died and so much was destroyed won't make them feel better about the United States. It's too little, too late.

But our partnership with the Gulf states appears to be very strong. The alliance has not changed. Arab leaders cannot completely abandon the opinions of their people – which is why, in the wake of Gaza, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman concluded that now was not a good time to move forward with normalizing relations. But the importance of the issue may diminish if his citizens don't see death and destruction on television every day. A ceasefire could therefore create more room for Arab states to adopt unpopular policies and positions, such as normalizing relations, which would be a top priority for Trump, as it would be for Biden.

Can a ceasefire quell regional fighting that has occurred since October 7??

It's hard to know. To some extent, Israel might say it has achieved its strategic goals. It weakened Iran, the war in Gaza was essentially over, and Hezbollah was weakened. It may decide that it's time to move on to the next chapter. But you could just as easily see Israel saying, "We've got an extremely hawkish, anti-Iran U.S. administration. It's time to get this done." And then it could launch a larger war with Iran. war. I think the answer will be closely intertwined with Trump's vision for the region and Israel's domestic political issues.

So let’s turn to Israeli politics. How a ceasefire will affect what happens in the country?

Since the attack, Israeli politics have been focusing on October 7 and its aftermath. That could change with the ceasefire and the return of hostages. The conversation could return to issues of democracy and institutions, such as Netanyahu’s efforts to weaken Israel’s Supreme Court, which sparked the protests leading up to October 7. Netanyahu's opponents are likely to regroup, amass their troops and mount a serious challenge to his leadership. Alternatively, they might choose to save his government if hardliners such as Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich quit the coalition in protest.

In any case, those extremists do not want to see politics return to normal. They hope to continue to seize the opportunity of this ongoing crisis to push harder for things like further empowering Israeli settlers or accelerating annexation of the West Bank. Netanyahu also does not want a return to normal politics, which could spark new protests or even land him in jail. (Netanyahu is on trial on corruption charges.)

Netanyahu has made clear throughout his career that he has no intention of surrendering without a fight. So I think a lot of what we're going to see, both in terms of compliance with the ceasefire and developments in Israel, will depend on who Netanyahu aligns with to remain prime minister.

Who do you think will rule Gaza after Israel withdraws??

I expect there will be some efforts to restore the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in the coming weeks, possibly coinciding with changes in PA leadership and an infusion of Gulf funding into the organization. The hope is that the Palestinian Authority will do in Gaza what they do in the West Bank, which is to act as a proxy for Israel, acting as a police force to maintain order, prevent resistance and fight Hamas.

But it's a heavy burden. Today, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is a shell of its former self. It is deeply unpopular, lacks little legitimacy, and is constrained by Israeli actions to cut off its funding. It is under pressure from Israeli settlers and the Israeli army's relentless expansion in areas it ostensibly rules. So, to put it mildly, I think this plan will run into some problems.

Does this mean Hamas will remain in power??

Hamas is clearly in a very difficult position. Many people in Gaza are very unhappy with them. They were weakened organizationally and institutionally. They lost international sponsorship. But this does not erase the reality that Hamas remains the only political organization with the real ability to control affairs in Gaza. If a ceasefire fails to quickly improve Palestinian lives and no legitimate alternative to power emerges, the group could regain momentum. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel's war has resulted in more recruits for Hamas than Israeli actions have killed.

Now, after October 7, Israel will no longer allow Hamas to have any formal participation in the government. But if we are serious about taking action to reestablish governance in Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid quickly, I think there has to be some kind of tacit understanding that allows Hamas to continue to exist. This is clearly unlikely given the way the Israelis have dealt with Hamas in the past and the war goals they have set for themselves. Even if they are able to maintain such a tacit understanding during the first phase, Hamas's role will have to be addressed moving into the second phase - one of the many reasons why a ceasefire is unlikely to lead to a lasting peace.

I don't think you see this agreement as the beginning of a two-state solution, as some administration officials have suggested..

Absolutely not. I see no evidence that we are any closer to a two-state solution. I co-authored an article diplomatic Not long ago, it was advocated that Israel and the Palestinian territories constitute one state, but now the reality of one state is even more obvious. Israel continues to expand its presence in the West Bank, seizing territory and breaking down structures and rules that provide Palestinians with an independent space to govern. Previously, some would have argued that Gaza was only controlled indirectly by Israel through its blockade. Well, now it will also be under more direct control by Israel. War and ceasefire agreements only reinforce the one-state paradigm.

Some will continue to talk about a two-state solution as the way out because that's what they do. But that won't happen. Now, the Trump administration doesn’t seem particularly interested in pretending to pursue a two-state solution. Therefore, even discussions about two states may disappear without a trace.

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