I'm not the first to notice the irony of TikTok users flocking to RedNote this week. TikTok’s “divest or ban” rule was supposed to prompt Americans to stay away from foreign-owned social networks that are influenced by the Chinese government or collect data. Instead, it pushed them onto another foreign-owned social network that posed the exact same supposed risks — and could be subject to the exact same type of ban.

TikTok faces a ban under the Protecting Americans from Apps Controlled by Foreign Adversaries Act, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support and was signed last year by President Joe Biden (who is reportedly undergoing some buy-in family regret) Now). While it mentions TikTok and its parent company ByteDance by name, it can apply to any company that meets the following criteria:

• It operates websites or applications with more than 1 million monthly users and allows those users to create accounts to create and share content.
• It is not a service that primarily allows users to "post product reviews, business reviews, or travel information and reviews."
• It is controlled by foreign adversaries, a definition that includes North Korea, China, Russia and Iran. "Control" could mean that the company is headquartered in the country, that residents of that country own at least 20% of the company's shares, or that the company is "under the direction or control of persons residing there."

As of 2023, RedNote reportedly has more than 300 million monthly active users, with a reported 3 million US users transferring recently. Its headquarters is located in Shanghai, China. The services it offers are very similar to TikTok.

If a company meets legal standards, responsibility shifts to the president, who can decide whether to initiate divestment or debarment proceedings. This requires a series of steps:

• The president must publicly propose that the company's apps pose a "significant threat" to U.S. national security.
• The president must issue a public report to Congress outlining "the specific national security issues involved and containing confidential attachments" and describing what assets the parent company needs to divest. (Congress doesn’t need to approve this—it just needs to receive it.)
• The president makes a formal decision at least 30 days after notifying Congress, and the company has 270 days to divest itself to satisfy the president's request. Within the first 90 days, the app's parent company can challenge the decision to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, as TikTok did.
• If it fails to be blocked by the courts, the company will need to conduct a "qualified divestiture" or face a ban in the United States. The 270-day deadline keeps ticking unless suspended by the courts, and the president can only extend the deadline for another 90 days.
• A ban could be avoided if the app escapes the control of a foreign adversary. The president must determine, with the help of an "interagency process," that the sale will result in the app no ​​longer being controlled by a foreign adversary and prevent any type of future operational relationship, such as a data-sharing agreement.
• If that doesn't happen, the law will force app store operators and internet hosting services to stop supporting the app, resulting in the app being effectively shut down in the United States.

The law names TikTok as a national security threat, so the platform is essentially ripe for the taking — the deadline to divest or ban is set in motion once the law is signed, bypassing much of the process described above. The law states that any subsidiary of ByteDance is also subject to the law, so apps like its social network Lemon8 could also face scrutiny, although the company and the U.S. government have not yet commented. But the president has greater leeway in deciding the fate of other apps.

So where does RedNote stand?

According to public information, RedNote may be forced to divest or face a ban under the Protecting Americans from Applications Controlled by Foreign Adversaries Act. A U.S. official confirmed this, saying "this appears to be an application to which the regulation applies."

But really, this is where we exit the realm of policy and enter the world of politics. The problem isn't how RedNote works; The question is whether RedNote will drive President-elect Donald Trump or Silicon Valley oligarchs crazy.

TikTok does pose potential security risks, but the pressure to ban it goes far beyond that. Meta has launched a public campaign calling for scrutiny of one of its main rivals, TikTok, and its ties to China. Members of Congress have complained that TikTok offers too much pro-Palestinian content; there is no known evidence that China is behind this alleged imbalance, so treating it as a national security threat seems rather dubious. Now, instead, Trump is looking for ways save TikTok because he thought it would help his campaign.

Based on all this, let's deduce RedNote's path. Currently, its U.S. user base appears to be relatively small. It's unclear how many U.S. users there were before last week, but Reuters According to reports, the number of TikTok users in the United States increased by about 3 million in one day this week, and as of last year, the number of monthly users in the United States was about 170 million. The risks Congress sees in TikTok — massive data collection, covert propaganda — appear to affect far fewer people. The real risks that determine its fate are more complex.

Will RedNote maintain a momentum that threatens the egos or businesses of MAGA-approved billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk? Will it generate political activism against Trump (or future presidents)? Will America’s growing hostility toward the Chinese government manifest itself in a widespread crackdown on Chinese apps? All of these things, while difficult to predict, do not bode well.

For now, though, I wish you a happy learning Mandarin.