Stocks have recovered almost all losses since President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. But Wall Street strategists don't believe that rallies will continue to rise.
"Unlike the (market) lows, there is much less 'bad news' on the market, and the current outlook remains highly uncertain," Truist Co-Cio Keith Lerner wrote in a notice to clients on Monday. "If the market receives some bad news, there are fewer buffers."
As the stock market bottomed on April 8, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 11.5%, the Nasdaq Composite (^i tike) rose about 14.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^dji) rose about 7.7%. President Trump sparked a rally after a 90-day delay in tariffs on April 9.
But as stocks have moved higher since then, stock strategists point out that the market narrative has not changed much.
The uncertainty of tariff policies remains rampant. The prospects for company revenue remain chaotic. Economists believe that the possibility of a recession in the United States is rising. This could mean that before another catalyst emerges, there is no more room for stocks to rise.
Read more: Latest news and latest news about Trump tariffs
Mike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that he saw the S&P 500 trades in the short term from 5,000 to 5,500. Wilson believes that the tariff agreement reached with China that reduces the effective tariff rate “material” may be necessary to push the benchmark index higher than 5,500 times. The Fed's lower interest rates -- think they are not driven by economic data that suggests recession risks -- may also increase stocks.
“Unless we see higher risks in these factors, range trading may continue,” Wilson said.
After two years of debate, the higher the bull market may be, and stock strategists now believe that the risk of the stock market may be a disadvantage.
On Tuesday, HSBC became the 12th Wall Street research team tracked by Yahoo Finance, which cut its 500-year year-end goal since the beginning of the Trump trade war. Five of these companies have metrics that the S&P 500 ends this year are essentially flat from current levels or lower levels.
Nicole Inui, head of equity strategy at HSBC Americas Equity, lowered her end-of-year target to 5,600, from a previous forecast of 6,700. INUI recommends that customers position their portfolios “defensively” in higher inflation, slower growth and potentially risk of recession.