on On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump will be on his second transnational foreign trip in his second term in Saudi Arabia, stressing that keeping ties with Riyadh remains a Trump priority. (He will also visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.) While hoped diplomatic breakthroughs normalize Saudi-Israel relations will have to wait (at least until the end of the Gaza war, other opportunities will allow Trump and Mohammed bin Salman, who is known as MBS, to leave their meetings.

Saudi Arabia's demand for U.S. security guarantees is not as urgent as Trump's first semester. Iran remains a major regional rival for the Saudis, and now it is much weaker after Israel's beatings against its allies Hamas and Hezbollah and the strikes by Tehran's balanced Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. It is unlikely that Trump will provide two-thirds of the Senate super-education through labor required for a formal defense treaty.

But even without Israel’s diplomatic difficulties, Trump intends to offer new defense cooperation, including public commitments if Iran or the rest of its allies attack the kingdom. The list may no longer include Hotis. On May 6, Trump announced a surprise ceasefire with Yemeni insurgents, ending U.S. air strikes in exchange for an attack on Red Sea Shipping. The deal, especially Israel, was excluded, was conducted by Oman and allowed Trump to claim victory to reduce an immediate threat to Saudi oil infrastructure before his visit.

The kingdom is also seeking to enter the most advanced American technologies, such as its expanding technology and advanced semiconductors in the field of artificial intelligence, which lags behind the neighboring UAE. To secure this access, Washington will insist on Riyadh cutting high-level technical cooperation with China.

The two leaders may announce a landmark civil nuclear deal. Saudis hope to enrich their uranium, allowing civilian energy development and potential military uses. U.S. negotiators have pushed for the ability to limit their ability to develop their own fuel cycles, as well as strict inspections from the IAEA. Compromise may allow limited enrichment under US supervision. They will also sign trade and investment deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars. A few days after Trump took office, the Crown Prince promised $600 billion to the United States, and he may provide more details this month.

Trump and MBS will also discuss Iran and Yemen, which is still serious for Riyadh. The Crown Prince needs to cover up his ambitious vision of reform and development plans for 2030 from Hushis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Without a formal defense agreement with Washington, it is especially important to maintain the current Tehran thaw - especially if pressure from Israel or the Trump administration stirs up retaliation from Iran on regional partners in the United States.

To avoid being targeted, the Saudi government sent Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to Iran in April, the highest visit between the two countries in decades. Riyadh also proposed to mediate the U.S.-Iran negotiations on the future of Tehran's nuclear program and possible sanctions relief.

Although the U.S. Grand Highway ceasefire reduces tensions, it remains vulnerable. Any re-escalation (for example, caused by ongoing attacks on Israel) will still cause revenge on Saudi oil infrastructure or U.S. bases.