President Donald Trump's roller coaster is booming ahead of schedule this week. On Wednesday, a federal district court ruled that his global tariffs were illegal, dealing a major blow to Trump. On Thursday, the appeals court ruled that taxes can currently remain taxable. Then, on Friday, Trump accused China of violating the preliminary trade deal and suggested he would respond. As all of this unfolds, the U.S. legal system fits into the final ruling, one thing is clear: The White House needs to adopt a real trade strategy, quickly.

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There are few problems that matter more than trade for Trump’s worldview. For Trump, trade is not only an economic issue, but also a touchstone test of whether the United States wins or loses on the world stage. Even war and peace issues, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, seem to have put Trump's stubborn fixation on the trade surplus between China and the United States in the seat

During his first term, Trump launched a trade war against China with his target to punish China for unfair trade practices. The trade war ended with a deal with China pledged to increase future purchases of U.S. products and develop structural reforms. Eventually, the deal failed to deliver. The Chinese promises were not good. Trump accused the Biden administration of not executing the deal.

Trump was relieved by disappointment with the first trade war with China, and he launched a second trade war when he returned to his office earlier this year. This time he is with loyalists who support his intuition to force China to the negotiating table. Trump's approach seems to be based on a hypothesis that China's economy is fragile and that Beijing will bend under pressure.

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The bet is counterproductive. China retaliates against anti-sponsors. Beijing has also put new export controls on key minerals and magnets that the U.S. industry relies on. Chinese policymakers acted quickly to improve China's economy while expanding trade relations with other partners. China did not fold, but hit backwards.

As the economic costs of the trade war intensified on both sides of the Pacific, Trump appointed his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to conduct a 90-day truce. Chinese people accept it. The trade war between Trump and China is not over yet. It's just a pause. Trump will continue to recover his dissatisfaction with the imbalance of U.S. trade with China until he can get a deal that can be sold to the U.S. public.

But on friction. Based on my recent exchanges with Chinese officials and experts, Beijing appears to have taken U.S. measures in recent weeks and concluded that China has the ability to withstand economic pain more confident than the leaders of the U.S. that any consistency with Murray Trump will continue. From a more basic perspective, Chinese leaders are not clear about Trump’s special seeking and the rewards he will provide.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S.-China negotiations were "a bit stagnant" and advised Trump and Xi Jinping to "call". But the U.S.-China trade war will remain stable until the Trump administration can articulate its specific goals, achieve its strategy of achieving, and its vision for a productive process to do so.

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It should be clear that the Trump administration has legitimate dissatisfaction with China's unfair economic practices. China's market access barriers, forced technology transfers, and national targeted subsidies to preferred industries and businesses have caused huge global trade distortions. But appeals are not a strategy. Daily improvisation is not a formula for negotiation progress.

The 90-day trade armistice provides the Trump administration with time and space to do its job. This means throwing away the assumption that XI will fall into pressure under pressure, but rather the hard work done for what Trump aims to achieve and the rewards he is ready to give.