Like Donald Trump, the EU prides itself on mastering the art of trading. The Brussels Trademark Event was a summit that ended at three in the morning, with tired negotiators emerging with complex new deals.
The EU's trading style is almost the opposite of the White House style. The US president is impulsive, rapid, and has made great demands and is willing to violate all rules. Europeans are legal, orderly, and constantly seeking compromises and trade-offs.
Trump's style is more flickering and makes better headlines. The EU's deadly boring, but more effective.
The question of which deal - Brussels boredom or Margrago chaos - works better, and it's more than just pride. The future of the world economy may persist. Both the EU and the United States are currently working to propose new trade deals. They also desperately need to address their differences by early July, when Trump's 90-day pause plan for his "reciprocity" tariffs with the EU was exhausted.
Trade relations between EU goods are much greater than the flow between the United States. Trade in transatlantic services has also become more intense.
The U.S. tariffs on EU goods are currently 10%. But they will rise to 20% in July. The EU has also been hit by the 25% U.S. tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum and threatened further tariffs on drugs.
The European Commission has done its best to remove its trade struggle against the Trump administration and avoid turning it into an ideological struggle or a test of strength.
But Brussels bureaucrats find themselves dealing with their Washington counterparts. One of the biggest problems is that it is not clear who has the real power to negotiate in the Trump administration.
Europeans have offered to buy more American agricultural products, but they cannot accept the current levels of permanent tariffs. Some in Brussels are worried that by July, the Trump administration will only extend the current regime by 90 days of negotiations.
Then the EU will have a decision. It finally retaliated and at what level? The overall assumption is that Europeans will be forced to fight back. The next question is whether retaliation is limited to commodity trade, the EU has more losses and its auto industry is particularly vulnerable.
Compared to manufacturers of Harley-Davidsons or Bourbon, U.S. technology companies have much more goals. However, Brussels Mandarin must also take into account the possibility that the Trump administration will asymmetrically impose asymmetric technical sanctions by evacuating U.S. troops from Europe. This will make Europe more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Given these unattractive choices and the unpredictability of the White House - Europeans are doing what comes naturally: take the time and act cautiously. More than a month has passed since Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced, and it has changed a lot. A safe bet is that there will be more turmoil over the next 60 days.
Like the Chinese, Europeans are waiting to see if there are gaps on American supermarket shelves. They also know that very painful drugs for Europe may be thrilled against them due to the rising prices of essential medicines.
The best case scenario for Europeans is that the contradictions and self-harm of Trump’s tariffs have become increasingly obvious as the July moves forward, resulting in a much better deal in Europe than it is currently possible.
The European Commission is determined not to allow the exercises with the United States to absorb all its negotiation energy. One of the consequences of Trump's global tariff war is a sharp increase in countries that want to negotiate a trade deal with the EU.
Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal was in Brussels last week. A new deal could be signed between the UK and the EU later this month, clearing out some of the most difficult issues left by Brexit. A few weeks ago, the United Arab Emirates held free trade negotiations with the EU. Trade negotiations with Australia have been stagnant for a long time and have begun again. A agreement with Mercosur Bloc in Latin America has been reached and has awaited approval. China is also keen on heating up trade relations with Brussels - although Europeans will proceed with caution there.
Countries crossing the road to Brussels will find slow dynamics and bureaucracy in the EU. The deal that Trump will work to overcome this line in weeks will take years to complete with the EU. On the other hand, as one Australian trade negotiator said: “The good thing about the EU is that if you end up making an agreement with them, you know they will stick with it.”
The EU has agreed about about twice the U.S. free trade agreement and can draw a good conclusion. The deal's Brussels art has its own particularity and frustration. However, it is more serious and durable than the Trump version.
gideon.rachman@ft.com