Many in Somaliland believe that under incoming President Donald Trump, the United States will become the first country in the world to recognize the self-declared republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war, and since then has functioned in many ways as a de facto nation-state.

"Donald is our savior. He is a wise and pragmatic man. God bless America," said college student Aisha Ismail, her voice shaking with joy at the prospect.

She spoke to me in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, 850 kilometers (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of Somalia's government.

For people in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an integral part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, let alone where it is,” said Abdi Mohammed, a data analyst in Mogadishu, his voice starting to shake.

"I'm breathing fire."

He was so angry because Ms. Ismail's lofty expectations were not necessarily pipe dreams, at least in the long run.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same thing, including Congressman Scott Perry, who was introduced last month Bill proposing formal recognition of Somaliland by the United States.

Following the release in April 2023 2025 planTrump’s Roadmap to a Second Presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organizations

The document refers to only two African territories in the sub-Saharan African part - Somaliland and Djibouti - and proposes "recognition of Somaliland's statehood to prevent the deteriorating position of the United States in Djibouti".

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa occupies less than two pages of the more than 900-page plan indicates that the continent ranks very low on the priority list.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the incoming administration will follow this blueprint, some of which Trump has already disavowed.

But one thing is clear. The United States has begun to change its stance on Somaliland, abandoning its Mogadishu-centric approach, the so-called "single-track" Somalia policy.

In the early 1990s, a U.S. helicopter was shot down by Somali tribal fighters and the bodies of 18 U.S. service members were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu. Since then, Somalia has caused huge losses to the United States in terms of finances, resources, and manpower.

The battle, known as "Black Hawk Down," was America's deadliest battle since the Vietnam War.

Somalia's Foreign Minister Ali Omar Barkader said: "Any move to recognize Somaliland's independence would not only violate Somalia's sovereignty but also set a dangerous precedent that would destabilize the region."

The African Union and other global powers consider territorial integrity vital. Recognizing Somaliland could trigger a chain reaction from separatists around the world demanding recognition of the territory they claim.

Barkader also highlighted concerns that the first Trump administration could repeat the withdrawal of most U.S. troops from Somalia fighting al-Shabab, often described as al-Qaeda's most successful affiliate.

During Joe Biden's presidency, about 500 U.S. troops have been stationed in Somalia to conduct special operations and train Somalia's elite Danab force, which has proven more effective than Somalia's regular army in rooting out al-Shabaab.

The United States has an air base in Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, and conducts regular airstrikes against Islamist insurgents.

"Withdrawal will create a severe security vacuum and embolden terrorist groups, threatening not only Somalia but the stability of the entire Horn of Africa," Barkader warned.

The minister's comments were similar but more cautious than Somalia's response to a deal struck between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which would reportedly grant recognition in exchange for maritime rights.

I got calls late at night from Somalis who said they couldn't sleep over the controversial proposal.

"You always talk about 'political bombshells' in your reporting," Aden Ibrahim O'Hirsi, then Somalia's environment minister, told me at the time.

"People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. This is a tsunami."

Türkiye has since ended the dispute through mediation But the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000)-a-year deal with top Washington lobbying firm BGR Group suggests it is worried about its relationship with the incoming Trump administration.

United States last month Abstain from voting on UN Security Council resolutions Funding the African Union's latest intervention force in Somalia.

Joshua Meservey, a key architect of Republican thinking on Africa, especially on Somalia, recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-leaning Hudson Institute.

“From a U.S. perspective, the situation in Somaliland is very compelling,” he believes. "I think the issue of acknowledgment will certainly be discussed, although steering North Star is actually in the best interest of the United States."

Among them are senior African officials under Trump, including former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy and Africa Special Envoy Peter Van, both active supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many U.S. Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan views the relationship in transactional terms.

"If the deal is good for us, we will accept it. If the United States wants to build a military base here, we will give it to them."

Supporters of recognition argue that Somaliland lies at the intersection of multiple U.S. economic, military and strategic interests.

Mr Meservy added that the territory should be "rewarded" for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having small government.

Its long coastline stretches along one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the region's main disruptor of traffic, but attacks remain a major threat to global trade and bring the region closer to a Middle East war.

The scramble for foreign bases along the Horn of Africa has attracted the attention of the United States, which established its largest military installation on the continent in 2002 in Djibouti.

Russia focuses on Port Sudan; the United Arab Emirates (UAE) uses Assab in Eritrea to fight the Houthis, while Djibouti is flooded with foreign troops, including China, which not only has well-located military facilities but also operates a huge port .

Türkiye's largest base on foreign soil stretches along the Somali coastline south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump's top priority.

The United States accuses China of firing lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots, interfering with its activities in Djibouti and keen to divert them elsewhere.

It also wants to undermine China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether you consider it Somaliland or part of Somalia, has plenty to offer.

China is not there; indeed, Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic in 2020, which is outrageous.

The United Arab Emirates, a key U.S. ally, operates the recently expanded port and hopes it will compete with Djibouti.

During the Biden administration, senior U.S. officials, including the commander of U.S. Africa Command (Africom), conducted field visits to Berbera, which ironically has a 4-kilometer runway built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War of.

The United States later identified the site as an emergency landing site for the space shuttle — interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, strengthening security cooperation and potentially paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Pro-recognition Republicans see Somaliland as a good business case that they hope will appeal to Trump's deal-making approach. The 2025 plan uses the word "hedging".

"It depends on how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to lure him," said a Somaliland diplomat in the United States.

Whether he intended it or not, raising the issue of explosive admissions might suit Trump, the disruptor he is.

This will definitely get his attention and he can brag about being number one.

It would also anger Somalia, who put the country on a list of "cesspit" countries in a 2018 report and wants to deport undocumented Somalis, failed asylum seekers and criminals to the country.

There are already rumors in Somaliland that the territory will be used as a "dumping ground" for such people in exchange for US recognition.

Ken Menkhaus, an American academic who has been following Somalia for decades, brings a much-needed balance to the debate.

"We are likely to see a significant shift in U.S. policy toward Somaliland and Somalia," he said.

"Mr. Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical of nation-building and a neo-isolationist."

The Horn of Africa needs to prepare for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including "Everything You Told Me Is True," about life under Al-Shabaab.