MELBOURNE, Australia — Then there were four. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton.
After 11 days of intense competition at Melbourne Park, only four men remain in contention for Australian Open glory. One player is looking to defend his title, two players are seeking their first major title, and one player is simply chasing more unparalleled greatness.
Here's why each semifinalist went on to lift the trophy:
No tennis player has had more success over the past 12 months than Sinner. In fact, in 2024, he had one of the greatest years in the history of the sport, winning the Australian Open, U.S. Open, and ATP Finals, earning more than $19 million in prize money, and Ranked first in the world.
Sinner hasn't quite reached Djokovic levels of dominance at Melbourne Park - who can? — but he's definitely moving in a similar direction. The 23-year-old has won 15 of his past 16 Australian Open matches, without dropping a set in 10 of them. His recent hard-court record at the Grand Slams has been equally impressive, winning each of his past 19 matches.
The Italian battled illness and heat in his fourth-round win over Holger Rooney but was back to his dominant best against Australian eighth seed Alex De Minaur , drove him off the field and allowed just six games in a game-most. The quarter-final side we've seen.
"I feel like the disease is gone now," Sinner said after advancing to the Final Four. "I feel a lot better. I felt like today was a really good game for me ... the best game of the tournament."
Sinner was hitting the ball as well as ever and refused to make mistakes, making the fewest unforced errors in the two-week semifinals. He forces his opponents to beat him, and so far, no one has been willing to accept the challenge.
His path to the final was also far less daunting than his opponents. Sinner has yet to face a player who has played in a Grand Slam semifinal, and it's possible he could win the title without experiencing a single Grand Slam title.
Sinner will be the favorite against Shelton, who he has beaten in their past four meetings and has won nine straight sets. If he passes that test, it will be either Djokovic, whom he beat in last year's Australian Open semifinals, or Zverev, who he beat in their only meeting in the 2024 Cincinnati final. This game is for the sinner to lose.
He may not have secured that elusive Grand Slam title, but Zverev has been knocking on the door for the better part of a decade. The German world number two has played in 10 Grand Slam semi-finals and finished runner-up at the 2020 US Open and 2024 French Open.
That effort at Roland Garros seven months ago was the highlight of Zverev's best career season, which has seen him win two Masters 1000 titles and rack up 69 wins on the year. He arrived at Melbourne Park in dazzling form and managed to maintain it, looking every bit the second-best player in the world as he eased into the semi-finals.
A date with Djokovic at the Australian Open was almost a daunting tennis task, but Zverev knew he could beat him. He has won two of his past four matches, including a hard-court semifinal win at the Tokyo Olympics. He was also the younger of the two, spending 11 hours and 58 minutes on court compared to Djokovic's 14 hours and 37 minutes.
If Zverev can beat Djokovic, he'll be very confident knowing that he has a winning record against both Sinner and Shelton.
You get the feeling that serve will determine how far Zverev goes. In the past two weeks, Zverev's first-server hit rate has been as high as 71%, easily the best hit rate among the four semifinalists. He won 78% of those points.
Against Djokovic, Zverev will need to continue hitting his spots and not let the greatest returner of all time enter the match. Djokovic seized the second serve opportunity in this tournament and won 60% of the points when his opponent failed to win a single serve.
"I've set a goal, I want to achieve my dream of winning a Grand Slam and I'm chasing that goal," Zverev said after beating Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. "I'm doing everything I can to play in another (Grand Slam final) on Sunday."
No one in the history of tennis knows how to win the Australian Open better than Djokovic. Djokovic is a 10-time champion of the event but has been beaten at Melbourne Park only five times in the past 15 years. He also holds an ominous 20-1 record in the Australian Open semifinals and finals.
Although Djokovic doesn't lift a Grand Slam trophy in 2024, he continues to prove that at 37 years old, he can still beat anyone on the tour on any given day. Two of his most impressive wins came against world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, who first won gold at last year's Paris Olympics and then in Tuesday's epic Australian Open quarter-finals Won the title again in the finals.
It was in the latter game that Djokovic suffered a leg injury. In the first set against Alcaraz, he came off the court and took a medical timeout, coming back with his left thigh strapped and seemingly unable to move freely as usual.
Should we be worried? Well, yes and no. It certainly won't help him lift trophies, but he has proven many times in Australia that he can still go all the way despite injuries. In 2021, Djokovic tore his abdominal muscle. Then, in 2023, he tore his hamstring 3 centimeters (1.18 inches). Neither injury will derail his championship hopes.
"I'm going to take it day by day. It's really about my recovery. The extra day without competition comes at the right time," Djokovic said after his victory over Alcaraz. "If I manage to get good enough physically, I think mentally, emotionally, I'll be as motivated as I can be."
An 11th victory in Australia would give Djokovic his 25th Grand Slam title, breaking his current tie with Margaret Court for the most singles Grand Slam titles. On January 26, at 37 years, eight months and three days, he also became the oldest person to win a Grand Slam title.
In many ways, Shelton will be playing with the casino's money Friday afternoon against Sinner. All attention will be on his opponent, the defending champion and the two men in the other semi-final, which means there will be far less pressure and expectations than there will be on the same stage at the 2023 U.S. Open Underestimating its importance.
Despite a relatively disappointing performance in last year's majors, Shelton was much improved and more experienced heading into the Flushing Meadows Championship 18 months ago.
The 22-year-old American won in Houston, finished runner-up in Basel and added two wins over top-10 players Daniil Medvedev and Andrei Rublev in the second half of the 2024 season The ranking has been pushed back to the top. 20. He hits the ball harder, makes fewer mistakes, and plays with confidence.
"Of course I won in different ways," Shelton said after his quarterfinal win over Lorenzo Sonego. "2023, 2023 U.S. Open, when I play here, I feel like everything has to be perfect. I'm in danger. I've reached my limit. Lately, especially playing here, nothing is perfect. .I I have to fill the void with everything I have in my game.
"For me, it's all about growth. I'm trying to be a more complete player every day. If you only have one thing to fall back on, you know, the gun goes off or the room is empty, you're in trouble."
Shelton has been tested in every game at Melbourne Park these two weeks. He continues to pass brilliantly in every game.
Shelton's greatest weapon is his serve. He set the fastest time of the tournament at 232 km/h (144.2 mph), was broken just six times in 98 service games, hit 66% of his first serve hits, and won 79% of his points . His service games were often over in the blink of an eye.
Oddsmakers will suggest Sheldon is the least likely of the last four to lift the Norman Brooks Challenge Cup on Sunday night, but count him out at your own peril.