The Biden administration this week rolled out new export restrictions aimed at controlling the global development of artificial intelligence and ultimately preventing the most advanced AI from falling into Chinese hands. The regulation is just the latest in a series of steps taken by Donald Trump and Joe Biden to rein in Chinese artificial intelligence.

With prominent AI figures such as OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei warning of the need to "beat China" in AI, the Trump administration is likely to escalate matters further.

Paul Triolo is a partner at the global consulting firm DGA Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and senior advisor to the Future of U.S.-China Relations project at the University of Pennsylvania. Alvin Graylin is an entrepreneur who was responsible for China operations for Taiwanese electronics company HPC. Together they have been tracking China’s artificial intelligence industry and the impact of U.S. sanctions. In an email exchange, Triolo and Grayling discussed the latest sanctions, Silicon Valley rhetoric and the dangers of treating global AI as a zero-sum game.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

What do you think of the new artificial intelligence proliferation rules introduced this week by the U.S. government that aim to limit China’s access to artificial intelligence?

Paul Triolo: Generally speaking, it focuses on clusters for high-performance computing. The rules also place controls on proprietary model weights for state-of-the-art "cutting edge" models, but it's unclear how performance levels are determined, and most open-weight (freely shared) AI models are developed by users, including major artificial intelligence Smart Company) tweaked and improved in China.

Complex rules and unclear compliance conditions create considerable uncertainty about the long-term plans of mid-sized and large hyperscalers in the United States and the West.

For hyperscalers such as Google, Microsoft, AWS and Oracle, the rule introduces critical issues, including slower or more complex international expansion, new compliance and legal costs, impacts on global R&D, and uncertain enforcement requirements .

How have previous measures, including sanctions imposed by the first Trump administration, impacted the AI ​​industry there?

Paul Triolo: U.S. export controls have slowed China's development, but at a high level, sanctions have united the Chinese government's willingness and efforts to become more self-reliant. It has invested tens of billions of dollars to help local companies catch up in technology or scale capabilities in core areas, leading to major changes in the semiconductor industry and its ability to support advanced hardware that develops cutting-edge artificial intelligence models.

Chinese AI developers are very adept at leveraging traditional AI hardware from Western companies and gradually integrating domestic alternatives into their development processes. Chinese companies will continue to innovate on AI hardware and software stacks, if not keep up with their Western counterparts.

Why do you think so many people in Silicon Valley are now talking about the need to “beat China” in AI?

Paul Triolo: There are growing ties between conservative venture capitalists, mostly in Silicon Valley, and technology companies whose business models depend on hyping the Chinese threat. It’s a troubling mix that mixes the Chinese threat, personal interests and resistance to regulation of advanced artificial intelligence. It also paints the U.S.-China competition over artificial intelligence as a zero-sum game, which is particularly dangerous.