oneThe baptized man in New York can be a pope, but traditionally, he (and always a “him”) was chosen from the Cardinal College. This year, possible competitors range from Liberal Secretary of State of Frances, Pietro Parolin, Italian Cardinal, to Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, a super conservative and outspoken critic of Francis. We can also see the American Pope, the Pope in Sub-Saharan Africa or the Pope in Asia for the first time.

With the campaign frowning, consulting secrets and ongoing alliances, it is impossible to predict outcomes, or even a list of top competitors. John L. Allen, a long-time Vatican analyst, didn’t even make it to Allen’s list a few days later, after John L. XVI, a longtime national Catholic journalist. Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio did it — but after Benedict resigned, he spent another round before being named Pope Francis in 2013.

Read more: Who leads the Catholic Church among the Popes?

Several names appeared in the Vatican consultations this week, called “Papabier” or Pope material, but at this point they are more likely to represent the characteristics the Cardinal wants to see in the next leader of the church than any definite choice. We'll list some here.

Matteo Zuppi: Insider

Rome-born Zuppi, 69, is considered the most likely candidate for continuity – someone close to Francis, who would be better able to consolidate his legacy. In 2015, Francis appointed Zuppi as one of Italy's most influential posts, Archbishop of Bologna, and then made him president of the important bishops' meeting in 2022. In 2023, Francis hired Francis to become his peace in Ukrainian affairs. "Not pointing at the finger and yelling publicly, 'This is my beloved son, I support it,'It's hard to think of anything else the pope might do to show someone trusting him,'" Allen wrote in his recent profile. Zuppi is closely associated with Sant'Egidio, a group of lay Catholics dedicated to social service that can give him an advantage.

Since 2013, Vatican Secretary of State Parolin, 70, has been described by Italian media as the natural heir to the legacy of Pope Francis. Experienced diplomats in the Vatican serving in Venezuela, Nigeria and Mexico, Vatican insiders saw him as a cautious warmth, like Francis, who has been focusing on democracy, human rights and humanitarian outreach. Parolin oversees a disputed 2018 agreement with Chinese leaders that grants the Chinese Communist Party a role in naming the country’s new bishop.

The agreement was tested in late April when the Chinese-approved Catholic leader unilaterally appointed two new bishops, a reciprocal period between Francis' death and the elected new pope. The appointment of China – one of which is to replace the Vatican’s already recognized bishop – will be one of the new pope’s first diplomatic challenges and will highlight the needs of candidates who can meet the geopolitical challenges of our time. "People can seriously imagine sitting across the tables of Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, or Vladimir Putin and holding their own tables," Allen said. He added that Parolin is one of them.

Robert Francis Prevost: External Insider

Americans never became popes, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. Still, Prevost, 69, is the head of Francis’ main advisory panel to pick the new bishop, benefiting from widespread name recognition that could give him an advantage among a large group of electors who have little in common. Born in Chicago, Prevost was born with Italian, French and Spanish roots and was called "the least American American" by Vatican correspondent Iacopo Scaramuzzi. Prevost worked as a missionary in Peru early in his career and then continued to hold leadership positions in the Vatican, a series of experiences that cemented his qualifications as a teacher, politician and governor.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle: Asia Francis

Since being appointed as a group of Catholic theologians in 1997, the 67-year-old Archbishop of Manila, Tagle, 67, is regarded as a rising star in the church, who guides church leaders on key theological issues. Born in Manila, Tagle will be the Vatican’s first Asian pope in modern times (technically, a few millennial popes can count as Asian), a strategic choice for the strongest growing church in Asia and Africa.

But it was his charm, his defense of the poor, his call for action on climate change, and his stance on the church’s harshness on homosexuality, divorced couples and unmarried mothers, who compared many to Frances. He prefers to follow his nickname Chito over an inscription title, while lunches with beggars and lunches that prefer public transport to work are full of stories. He is a cardinal entrepreneur with a positive presence on social media and is committed to following.

Like Tagle, Turkson, 76, of Ghana, answered the growing demand for leaders representing the Catholic Church’s gravity center in Africa and Asia. Francis’s close advisor to the groundbreaking Laudato SI, exhorting Catholics (and the world) to protect the planet from climate change, Turkson represents the continuation of Francis’ progressive environmental and social justice legacy. "Turkusen would be an absolutely fun choice. You don't want a performer, but you do want someone to inspire people. He has a firm commitment to social justice and makes his feet dirty. He ticks all these Francis boxes."

Francis' progressive attitudes toward several areas of church doctrine, such as the blessing of same-sex couples, and the appointment of female deacons, have drawn criticism from other leaders of the African church, their names and their names - Fridolin Ambongusungu, Fridolin Ambongusun from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Robert Sarah from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Robert Sarah from Guinea, which also exacerbated the successors of the Africans.

Brett C. Hoover said popes like Francis, the first Latin American pope, were more likely to reflect these concerns.

Many in the church were upset by Francis’ progressive stance on key issues, such as his restrictions on the Latin masses, his willingness to open up key stances to non-lawyers and his focus on “listening” to the Catholic community and leading it. They will look for a candidate who embraces the traditional tendencies of John Paul II and Benedict XVI. Erdő, 72, of the Archbishop of Budapest, is suitable for this mold. He opposed communication with Catholics who had divorced or remarried, and opposed blessings to gay couples, and he once said that welcoming immigration could encourage human trafficking. He is diplomatic, cautious, and can speak or read English, French, German, Italian, Russian and Spanish, which gave him a language advantage in a multilingual competition. His ascension, however, could be interpreted as a flat rejection of Francis' legacy, which could pause many of the cardinals at the pause of the meeting, even if they agreed in principle to his conservative position.

Pizzaballa from Italy is the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, serving the Catholic Church of Israel, the Palestinian Territory, Jordan and Cyprus. He gained recognition and trust for his ability to connect and understand within the deep gap in the region. This may be a selling point for voters who seek to bridge the church’s deepening division after the Francis era. Unlike many other candidates, he has evaded the doctrine debate, which may make him attractive enough for Cardinal College to win the necessary two-thirds majority.