Early Thursday morning, Chinese state media announced that the United States has been seeking to initiate tariff negotiations with Beijing.

This is what the rest of the world has been waiting to hear about the surprisingly high tariffs – at 245% of China’s exports to the United States – throttle trade between the world’s two largest economies, which adds to the ghost of the recession.

President Donald Trump's administration has used various channels to connect with Beijing, according to an article on Weibo on the social media platform on Yuyuantantian, which is linked to China Central Television (CCTV).

The statement quoted unnamed people familiar with the matter, less than a week after Trump claimed the dialogue between the two countries was in progress - a suggestion Beijing later denied.

"China does not need to talk to the United States," Yuyuantantian said in a post on Thursday. "From a negotiation perspective, the United States must be the more anxious party at the moment."

The statement comes after the U.S. and China’s claims and denial cycle, as both sides refuse to start discussions publicly.

The question is not whether the discussion will proceed, but when, under what circumstances and at whose request.

Experts describe the quarrel as a chicken game between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping as both try to save faces while secretly pursuing mutually beneficial outcomes, namely, a downgrade of the trade war.

"I hope it's back and forth because neither Washington nor Beijing want to look like a surrender side," said Ja Ian Chong, assistant professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

“(But) downgrade will be the overall benefit for both sides, so there are some general motivations to do so.”

Wen-Ti Sung, an academic member of the world's China-Australia Centre, said: "It's like two racing cars competing against each other: the first person who turns will be seen as the weakest of both parties. At this critical moment, both parties want to look soft."

Recognizing that he was the first leader to initiate tariff talks would be seen as the one who undermined his position in the negotiations.

"It seems that the desperate person has lost the leverage of bargaining," Unger said. "Both sides want to portray the other side as a more desperate person."

This peculiar impasse—who both sides seek the same results, but neither wish to be the first to make suggestions—caused a "constructive ambiguity" strategy: the intentional use of language is so vague that each party can claim to be a right.

Mr. Unger pointed out that it is this strategy that explains Yuyuantantian Weibo Post.

"This is Beijing's attempt to explore the possibility of using word games to create an outer ramp for both sides so that they can gradually climb down this upgraded spiral," he said.

One way to escape this chicken game is when a third party mediates, both parties have an outer ramp. Another option, Mr Sung explained, is to "a more relaxed understanding of what the other person extends" means."

This way, the side that does appear first on the desktop can still be described as a response, rather than the first step.

In the case of Trump and Xi Jinping, it also means that tariff negotiations can begin with two leaders who claim to have some sort of victory in the trade war.

Optics are important here. As Mr Chong pointed out, relegation is one thing - but another top priority for Trump and XI is "winning for their family audience."

Chong said: "Trump obviously wants to show that he has made Beijing surrender.

On the domestic front, both leaders face headwinds caused by tariffs. Trump has worked to calm concerns about the recession this week as new data suggests the U.S. economy has signed contracts in the first quarter since 2022.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping - already fighting ongoing low consumption before tariffs, property crisis and unemployment - must assure China's population that he can survive the trade war and protect the economy that strives to rebound the pandemic.

"[Trump and Eleven]both recognize that at this point in the trade war, this will no longer be a winner for both sides," Unger said.

“Trump realized that he wouldn’t be at the distance he wanted 100% of the way he wanted, so he was trying to find a concession that would allow him to get enough victory, especially for family purposes.”

Although China is not unwilling to do so, he added: "They are very stuck at the right price".

Regarding Xi Jinping, Mr. Ang described this situation as a "two-level competition."

"China needs to manage the U.S.-China bilateral negotiations, and Beijing at home needs to save enough faces so that Chinese leaders can stick to this narrative "the East is rising and the West is falling."

"The ditches to the east are not the rise of the East."

At the time of writing, the United States has not denied the claim that China has been trying to initiate talks. However, according to Mr., both parties now believe this fact indicates that there is "some kind of connection".

"Both sides are talking," he said. "This shows that it is possible to reach some accommodation."

But the beginning of negotiations does not mean that the U.S.-China relations—even before Trump began a trade war—is almost stable.

Mr. Chong did not hold his breath. On the one hand, he believes that the “pose” indicates that both sides have not reached the point of view that “they are both trying to find a way out.”

“(Every party) may want the other party to make concessions, so they will have this confrontation until they blink first.”