The White House released a study on Saturday that estimates that 82 to 9.2 million Americans may not have health insurance if President Donald Trump fails to pass on the budget.

The finding comes from a White House Economic Advisory Board memorandum titled “If the proposed budget settlement bill in 2025 is not passed, then the opportunity cost of health insurance.”

The study assumes that there are about 27 million uninsured people in the United States in 2025. If the Budget Act fails, it could increase to about 36 million uninsured people, close to about 50 million people who are implementing the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (ACA) (also known as Obamacare), also known as 2010.

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The memo said the estimate was “based on the assumption that expanding Medicaid’s relatively generous eligibility state would retreat to meet balanced budgetary requirements and attempt to provide more unemployment support during a severe recession.” This could also be concluded by saying that the analytical assumption “no policy countermeasures”, which the White House described as “a much less impossible but feasible worse situation” situation.

The White House predicts that Trump's downgrade and other shocks in 2017 in 2026 will lead to a "moderate to severe recession." Economic advisers report that a “major recession” will result in lower consumer spending due to higher personal taxes, reducing small business investment and recruitment, which has led to a shock of global confidence through personal taxes, including concerns about U.S. competitiveness and concerns about dollar diopters and increased credit break-even and increased real interest rates.

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U.S. GDP could shrink by about 4% in two years, similar to the 2008 recession, according to advisers’ “capacity” on the impact of not extending Trump’s tax cuts. The unemployment rate could increase by four percentage points, resulting in about 6.5 million unemployed. Of these 6.5 million unemployed, 60% have employer-sponsored insurance, so about 3.9 million people in the White House program will lose coverage and therefore have no insurance.

The memorandum also expects loss of personal and market coverage, as those who already have no employer-sponsored insurance will no longer be able to purchase insurance on their own. The White House expects to drop from about 22 million nals (about 22 million) in 2026 to about 3.3 million losses.

Without the “big and beautiful bill”, Medicaid and ACA subsidized program enrollment could experience a 10% admission friction, resulting in about 500,000 to 1 million people losing or failing to obtain coverage, the memo said. According to the White House, the expiration of Trump's tax cuts in 2017 will disproportionately affect non-citizens, performance workers and early retirees. The consultant evaluated that these working class individuals without employer-sponsored insurance will no longer be able to cover the recession, resulting in 500,000 to 1 million insurance losses in the "vulnerable population."

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.

The 1116-page bill includes more than $5 trillion in tax cuts, which partially offset expenses and will make Trump’s first term permanent tax cuts.

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It also recognised many of Trump’s campaign promises, including temporary ending of taxes on overtime and tips from many workers, creating a new $10,000 tax break for car loan interest on U.S.-made cars, and even creating a new tax-free "MAGA account" that would contribute $1,000 to children born in his second term.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.