Who will blink first? It's a question of which studio will resume releasing movies in Russia after the three-year pause triggered by the country's invasion of Ukraine.
The answer seems to be Lionsgate, which plans to release the “John Wick” derivative “Ballerina” led by Ana de Armas on June 5 through Russian distributor Atmosfera Kino. A Lionsgate spokesman declined to comment, although a person familiar with the matter told type The studio is willing to "go forward in Russia by case", which is attributed to policy shifts that "time passes" and "emotion changes."
The move comes with hopes of falling international box office revenues and expects to drop expectations from Russia-Ukrainian Detty (Russia-Ukrainian Detty), which will drop international box office revenues given that U.S. President Donald Trump prioritizes the matter early in his second term. Marvel's "Fantastic Four: Step One" is also not Paramount's "mission: Impossible - Final Estimate", which aims to conduct a massive international turnout following its first Cannes debut on Wednesday, and is expected to be released in Russia; however, Universal Studios does not plan to release "Jurassic World Rebirth" in the country.
"It seems to be opening up," said a prolific producer in Cannes. "I met a lot of Russian buyers on the street yesterday. So they're here to do business."
After talks between Saudi Arabia earlier this year by U.S. Russian officials, Trump announced that he was “trying to reach some economic development agreements” with Moscow, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a “peace agreement with Ukraine” once Russian U.S. businesses have signed “extraordinary opportunities”.
For Hollywood, this public attitude has opened the door to the sixth largest drama market in the pre-war world. "All you have to do is see the wind blowing," said Schuyler Moore, a partner at law firm Greenberg Glusker.
In February 2022, the public stance of major studios was very different, with MPA representative members Disney, Netflix, Paramount, Sony, Universal, Universal, Universal, Wordery and Warner Bros saying “the greatest support for Ukraine’s vibrant creative community”, which all announced that they had suspended their operations with Russia. But in the following years, some films, such as Universal's "Oppenheimer", received quiet releases on the territory. (The Oscar winner made $2.4 million there.)
Independent films never really stopped being released in Russia, and many American sales companies continued to open movies in Russia throughout the war, including A24, neon and movies, often working at third-party distributors elsewhere in Europe. Neon's best-film champion "Anora" (including Russian actors and dialogue) made her debut in the country last year, making nearly $3 million in the country's global payments. It turned out to be a lucrative business, with independent publishers scrambling to make up for Hollywood blockbusters in Russian cinemas after the studio was withdrawn.
"For them, it's a gold rush. It's the ecstatic people," said a knowledgeable source. "The pricing is very aggressive... It's their most exciting market for the past two years."
According to Maxim Ostry, editor-in-chief of trade magazine Booker's Bulletin, foreign films (powered by Studio Tentpoles - accounted for nearly three-quarters of the box office revenue and generated $410 million in 2021. Of the 20 highest-grossing movies of the year, all but one of them were Hollywood exports, including a pair of Sony comic book blockbusters - "Venom: Let's Slaughter" ($32.4 million) and "Spider-Man: No Way to Go Home" ($247 million) ($247 million).
According to Olga Zinyakova, president of Karo Cinema Cinema Chain, the pandemic figures were even higher, with Hollywood releases earning nearly $1 billion in box office in 2019, making Russia the top European market for American films that year.
Even today, Russia still ranks the highest international markets among the U.S. independent titles, such as Neon's serial killer thriller "Longlegs", which made $4.5 million there, second only to the UK in the world; and A24's Nicole Kidman starring the porn drama babygirl, which has so far earned $3 million in Russia, only after the Netherlands and the UK.
As global box offices are still struggling to rebound from Hollywood strikes and the once-bike Chinese market is turning inward, it is difficult to ignore the potential upside potential. "From a box office perspective, this will be a significant increase in the overall global market," said Shawn Robbins, director of film analysis at Fandango. "It is possible that relying on these previous revenues again will be a significant development."
An executive from a large studio called the return to Russia "inevitably" and exhibitors in the country have worked with it but have not yet discussed a specific film. Most people agree that it will take some time to get back to normal.
Zinyakova added: "The market has grown. Many viewers feel alienated by the sudden exit of the studio, while Russian cinemas take advantage of the opportunity to strengthen."