IIf the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas proceeds as currently drafted, fighting in Gaza will cease for 42 days and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be released. In the first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw to the edge of Gaza, and as aid increases, many Palestinians will be able to return to their remaining homes.

The question is whether the ceasefire will last beyond the first phase.

That will depend on more negotiations starting in a few weeks. In those talks, Israel, Hamas, and mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar, will have to grapple with the thorny issue of how to govern Gaza, with Israel demanding the elimination of Hamas.

If there is no agreement to begin phase two within 42 days, Israel may resume operations to destroy Hamas in Gaza - although dozens of hostages remain in the hands of the militants.

Two officials confirmed that Hamas has agreed to a draft ceasefire agreement, but Israeli officials said details were still being worked out, meaning some terms could change or even the entire agreement could fail. Here are the plans and potential pitfalls in the draft as seen by The Associated Press.

Hostage exchange for imprisoned Palestinians

In the first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. By the end of this phase, all living women, children and the elderly held by the militants should be released.

About 100 hostages, including civilians and soldiers, are still being held in Gaza, and the military believes that at least a third of them are dead.

Hamas will release three hostages on the first day of the official ceasefire, followed by four more on the seventh day. After that, it will be published weekly.

Which hostages and how many Palestinians will be released are complicated. The 33 will include women, children and people over 50 years old - almost all civilians, but the agreement also calls for Hamas to release all living female soldiers. Hamas will release the living hostages first, but if the 33 live hostages are not completed, the bodies will be handed over. Not all hostages are being held by Hamas, so getting other armed groups to hand them over could be a problem.

In exchange, Israel would release 30 Palestinian women, children or elderly persons for every living civilian hostage released. For every female soldier released, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 prisoners serving life sentences. In exchange for Hamas handing over the bodies, Israel will release all women and children held in Gaza since the start of the war on October 7, 2023.

Dozens of men, including soldiers, will remain imprisoned in Gaza until the second phase.

Israeli withdrawal and Palestinian return

In the first phase of the proposed deal, Israeli forces would withdraw into Gaza's roughly one kilometer (0.6 mile) wide buffer zone along the Israeli border.

This will enable displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, including those in Gaza City and northern Gaza. With much of Gaza's population herded into vast, squalid tent camps, Palestinians are desperate to return to their homes, even though many have been destroyed or severely damaged by Israeli actions.

But there are some complications. During negotiations over the past year, Israel has insisted that Palestinian flows to the north must be controlled to ensure that Hamas does not bring weapons back to the areas.

Throughout the war, the Israeli military isolated the north from the rest of Gaza by controlling the so-called Netzarim Corridor. The corridor is a strip of land across the Gaza Strip where forces cleared Palestinian populations and established bases. This allows them to search for people fleeing from the north into central Gaza and stop anyone trying to return.

The draft seen by The Associated Press clearly states that Israel will leave the corridor. In the first week, troops will withdraw from Rashid Street, the main north-south coastal road, which will open a route for Palestinians to return. By the 22nd day of the ceasefire, Israeli troops will have withdrawn from the entire corridor.

Still, as negotiations continued on Tuesday, an Israeli official insisted that the military would continue to control Nezarim and that Palestinians returning to the north would have to pass checks there, but he declined to provide details. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private negotiations.

Resolving these contradictions can cause friction.

Throughout the first phase, Israel will retain control of the Philadelphia Corridor, a strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt, including the Rafah crossing. Hamas dropped its demand for Israel to withdraw from the area.

humanitarian aid

In the first phase, aid flows into Gaza will increase to hundreds of trucks per day, including food, medicine, supplies and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. This was far more than Israel had allowed throughout the war.

For months, aid groups have struggled to distribute even the small amounts of aid entering Gaza to Palestinians due to Israeli military restrictions and gang-ridden robberies of aid trucks. Ending the fight should alleviate this.

The demand is huge. Palestinians are huddled in tents, lacking food and clean water, and malnutrition and disease are rampant. Hospitals were damaged and supplies were in short supply. The draft agreement stipulates that equipment will be allowed to be used to build shelters for tens of thousands of people whose homes have been destroyed and to rebuild infrastructure such as electricity, sewage, communications and road systems.

But here, too, implementation can create problems.

Even before the war, Israel restricted the entry of some equipment, believing it could be used by Hamas for military purposes. Another Israeli official said arrangements for aid distribution and clearance were still being worked out, but the plan was to prevent Hamas from playing any role.

To further complicate matters, the Israeli government remains committed to plans to ban UNRWA from operating and sever all ties between the agency and the Israeli government. The U.N. agency is the main distributor of aid to Gaza, providing education, health and other basic services to millions of Palestinian refugees in the area, which includes the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

second stage

If all goes well, both sides will still have to deal with the second phase. Negotiations on the issue will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

The draft outlines the broad outlines of a second phase: the release of all remaining hostages in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and "sustainable calm."

But this seemingly basic exchange raises larger questions.

Israel says it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas's military and political capabilities are eliminated and it cannot rearm to ensure that Hamas no longer rules Gaza. Hamas says it will not hand over the final hostages until Israel withdraws all troops from across Gaza.

Negotiations must therefore lead to both parties agreeing on alternatives to governing Gaza. In effect, Hamas would have to agree to step down itself - something it has indicated it would be willing to do, but it would likely seek to retain influence in any future government, something Israel has vehemently rejected.

The draft agreement states that an agreement on the second phase must be reached before the end of the first phase.

There will be pressure on both sides to reach a deal, but what happens if there is no deal? It can go in many directions.

Hamas wants written assurances that the ceasefire will continue as long as a second phase is agreed upon. It has received verbal assurances from the United States, Egypt and Qatar.

However, Israel made no guarantees. As a result, Israel could threaten new military action, pressure Hamas in negotiations, or resume military operations outright, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened.

Hamas and mediators are betting that the momentum of the first phase will make it difficult for him to do so. Renewing the attack would risk losing the remaining hostages, which would anger many opponents of Netanyahu, although halting the destruction of Hamas would also anger key political partners.

The third phase is likely to be less controversial: the bodies of the remaining hostages will be returned in exchange for a 3- to 5-year reconstruction plan in Gaza under international supervision.