As economic uncertainty increases, U.S. job growth is most likely to slow in April.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to report the latest salary data on Friday morning. The forecast increased by about 133,000. This will be lower than the 228,000 jobs added in March, but closer to the historical monthly average. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

In a contest for Friday's report, a debate over the impact of President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2 and the subsequent suspension of national-by-country tariffs - new data will be captured.

Despite the huge uncertainty caused by tariff announcements and thriving markets, the worst effects of slowing port transport and stagnant recruitment have only recently begun to emerge.

“Although (currently suspended) 'reciprocity tariffs' have had an impact on global trade, the well-known "tidal waves caused by economic and supply disruptions" have not yet hit the U.S. coast in a major way," Matthew Weller, head of global research at Forex.com, provided a report to clients this week.

Even without tariffs, Trump’s other policies could cause job growth.

Over the past 12 months, Joe Biden's end as president and the beginning of Trump's second term, only three recruitment departments account for about 80% of economic growth, which is the growth of all jobs in the government, health care and social assistance, as well as leisure and hospitals.

Vanguard said now, the first two departments face further headwinds from cuts related to the Trump administration’s efficiency program.

EY Group analysts said in a note that April’s recruitment is also a slower month, especially in the service industry.

On the other hand, Bank of America analysts expect stronger reports. Some companies (mainly trade and transportation sectors) may increase their number in the short term as consumer goods orders surge due to tariffs.

"So, at the same time, these departments are likely to show job growth at a higher level," Bank of America analysts said.

The economy is browsing deep cross-flows: Even though shipment data marks a sign of serious distress, the stock market has recovered a lot from Trump’s initial “Liberation Day” speech as investors PIN wants to make investor hopes for the trade deal. The S&P 500 has returned to its April 2 levels, although it was below 8% lower at its February 19 highest, which is Trump's second time as president for about a month.

While many companies have withdrawn guidance for the financial expectations of the year or have completely withdrawn their guidance, so far, other companies (especially some prominent figures in the tech sector) have sailed relatively unscathed. Microsoft stock has climbed nearly 20% in the past month, although in recent days investors have recognized what Morgan Stanley calls “one of the most powerful quarters in recent memory”, a growth driven by demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

Meanwhile, the company continues to announce a U.S. hiring or expansion plan, although it is not clear in some cases whether the plan is already underway. On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Kimberly-Clark plans to invest $2 billion and create 900 jobs as it improves its U.S. manufacturing capacity. Hyundai, Johnson and Johnson, NVIDIA and Toyota made similar announcements, which were recently touted by Trump.

Still, the threat of tariffs is in trouble on many companies. GDP was negative in the first quarter, and consumer sentiment was still at a decade-long trough. CNBC reported Thursday that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is urging the Trump administration to implement "tax exclusion procedures" immediately on backup companies, especially smaller companies, face different implications of responsibilities.

"We are deeply concerned that many small businesses will suffer irreparable harm even if it only takes weeks or months to reach a deal," Interior CEO Suzanne Clark wrote in the letter.

“The Chamber of Commerce asked the government to take immediate action to save small businesses in the United States and avoid a recession,” she wrote.