When President Donald Trump returned to office, he was under a fundamental misunderstanding of the Ukrainian war.
Trump seems to be convinced that he can get Russia to stop fighting - as long as he keeps Ukraine away from NATO and freezes the front, allowing Russia to retain the territory it has occupied. But that is not enough for Vladimir Putin. He had other requirements: strictly limit the size of the Ukrainian army, end security cooperation with the West, without European troops in the country. Moscow wants a spayed Ukraine, not a neutral one.
Last week in Istanbul, Russian and Ukrainian officials held public talks for the first time since 2022, agreeing to exchange 1,000 prisoners each and continue negotiating technical details of a potential ceasefire. Some observers view this progress as progress, but the underlying dynamics have not changed: Russia's maximistic demands almost make recent reconciliation nearly impossible.
The next step will fall on Trump, who threatened to "reach an agreement through both sides" last month. No one knows exactly what this means. Maybe Trump will turn on Putin and increase support for Ukraine, but every sign suggests that it is unlikely. Both actions seem more reasonable. First, Trump may decide to cut off military aid to Ukraine, which may eventually tilt the war in Russia's interests. Plus, he may maintain our support, but take a step back until Russia says it is ready to compromise. As Putin tries to maintain a huge war, Putin will face a series of dilemmas.
Russia, Ukraine and European allies in Ukraine know that settlements are unlikely in the near future, at least. Meanwhile, their main diplomatic goal is simple: win Trump. He wanted a quick solution, so both Ukraine and Russia tried to convince him other One side is the side that extends the conflict. A successful person can shape his reaction to negotiation failures and gain huge benefits on the battlefield.
Initially, Trump regarded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (rather than Putin) as a stubborn person. Zelensky insists on using the U.S. Tek security guarantees, which Trump is unwilling to give. Meanwhile, Putin appears to be building a friendship with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff.
This dynamic was reversed shortly after the Oval Office confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in February, which led to the temporary refusal of aid in the United States. The disaster forced Kyiv to move nails. Eleven days later, at the UK's advice, Ukraine shrewdly agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire with U.S. officials. Trump wants to end the war. Now Zelensky can say he did the same.
But Putin will almost certainly never accept an unconditional ceasefire, which will make it possible for major issues that have not yet been resolved (such as territorial disputes and security assurances in Ukraine). Russia will benefit in some ways - the country will maintain the area of its current control - but Ukraine will be able to re-cultivate and recognize European forces without restrictions, both of which are rejected by Putin as he seeks Ukrainian conquest.
Zelensky agreed to a ceasefire and opened negotiations: Putin will now be a harsh condition and denies Trump's peace deal. It seems to work. Earlier this month, Vice President JD Vance said Russia “asked too much” even if the Trump administration proposed a plan that favored Putin. When Trump was asked about Vance's statement, he said: "It's possible that he was right."
Putin may feel that he is losing deleveraging, calling for talks last week in Istanbul, where Russia and Ukraine negotiated in the early stages of the war. At that time, the two sides gathered on many issues, but had profound differences on others. For example, if the war breaks out again, Russia hopes to effectively veto Ukraine’s security assurances and international aid. This time, Putin obviously hopes to convince the United States to accept the same conditions and put pressure on Ukraine.
Then Zelensky made another shrewd move. He said he did not refuse the invitation, but said he would show up in person and face Putin. Zelensky knew Putin was unlikely to go, and he actually didn't. Zelensky raised another sign by calling the Russian leader’s bluff, suggesting Putin was not serious about negotiating a ceasefire.
Still, Moscow can eventually get rewarded for refusing to compromise. The basic diplomatic issue of the United States is to convince Putin to accept what he strongly opposes: a free and independent Ukraine that can defend itself and block future attacks. Instead of continuing to try to solve the problem, Trump simply ended U.S. intelligence cooperation, cut off the supply of weapons, and may even refuse Sell arms. Ukraine will face critical shortages and casualties, and Russian forces may take away more small gains that will add up over time.
Fortunately for Zelensky, however, Ukraine did not rely on the United States as it was in the first three years of the war. President Joe Biden's decision to accelerate the transfer of weapons in the final months of his administration has given Ukrainians most of what they need for the rest of the year. Even though Trump obviously does not want to renew aid for Ukraine, the country has improved its defense industrial base with the help of allies, especially its ability to produce large numbers of drones that have largely replaced artillery in the front.
But if the United States continues to support Ukraine, Russia may find it difficult to generate enough manpower to maintain next year's invasion. Russia has won only a small portion of its territory in the last nine months of offense and paid a huge fee for them. According to a U.S. military estimate last month, the country suffered more than 1,500 casualties a day, nearly 800,000 since the war began. Putin is not a reasonable person, but sometimes he does adapt to the reality of the battlefield. If his losses continue at this rate, he may have to order a greater mobilization, and he has been keen to avoid or compromise on the negotiations.
Judging from Witkoff’s recent comments, Trump doesn’t seem to understand that negotiations can only be successful if Russia is under pressure on the frontline. The president said earlier this month that neo-conservatives believed that "war is the only way to solve the problem." But Trump “thinks that his personality power—the way he’s going to respond to the situation—can bend over people to do things in better ways for the good of the U.S. government, and I believe that.” Putin is too sure, not swayed by personality.
But there is a realistic direction that benefits both Trump and Ukraine. This will require help from Europe. The goal is simple: show Putin that as long as he sticks to the maximum demand, he will not achieve any significant territorial gains and will continue to pay a huge price on the battlefield.
Although some of the U.S. military support is irreplaceable, especially its intelligence cooperation, air defense missiles, medium-range rockets and heavy vehicles - Europ is capable of taking most of the burden of supporting Ukraine. Given that Trump is almost certainly not asking Congress to fund additional aid, close to his leaders, especially British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, could make a compromise, and the United States provided Ukraine with the type of aid that Europe could not provide - Putin rather than Zelensky remains the main obstacle to peace. Europeans can also pay for the United States its weapons and equipment by leveraging Russia's sovereign assets.
This compromise will allow Trump to tell Americans that his aid to Ukraine has been greatly reduced, but has not given up. Even better, he could say that Europeans were making contributions to the bill. This would help reach an agreement with Russia, showing Moscow that victory is impossible. A quick end to the war will require convincing Putin that it can go on indefinitely. The deal he desperately needs to complete will continue to cover up as long as Trump denies this and flirts to end our support for Ukraine while lifting Russia out of the way.