It is not clear what has actually been achieved when examining the announcement of US President Donald Trump's quarantine during his second term in office, without tariffs.
It is obvious that Trump’s tariff announcement has stirred up global markets, slashed trillions of dollars in value, and amid never-ending uncertainty, many businesses are confused about their plans for the future.
Within days after being sworn in for the second term, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and most Canadian imports, and China imposed 10% on imports, believing they needed to do more to stop fentanyl and undocumented immigrants from flowing into the United States. He quickly suspended Canadian and Mexican personnel for 30 days, but was not in China in exchange for concessions on borders and law enforcement.
Since then, he has increased tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts and brought the tax back to Mexico and Canada, and doubled all Chinese imports of fentanyl-related tariffs to 20%.
He then walked back and forth on tariffs on imports of cars from Canada and Mexico, eventually settling with 25% of global car imports.
Then, in April, he announced “reciprocal” tariffs in dozens of countries around the world, with 10% benchmark tariffs in all countries around the world. He stopped the “countdown” tariffs after being subjected to bloody treatments on Wall Street, but maintained a 10% global tax and imposed a 145% tax on China, then retaliated against the 125% tax on U.S. goods entering the country.
Soon after, Trump began to back down some tariffs as the United States reached a trade deal. The first time last week was in the form of a limited trade agreement with the UK, which retained a 10% tax on many products, but the U.S. tariffs on British auto imports have been reduced to 27.5% so far, making domestic automakers annoying.
But everyone is watching earlier this week: The U.S. and China announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs and scale, with the U.S. and China lowering its tax rates to 30%, China lowering it to 10%, while two competitors phase out trade deals.
But even ahead of the May 12 announcement, the United States had provided exceptions to smartphones, computers and other technology products, which were imported primarily from China.
It then cut tariffs on low-value "de Minimis" imported from China, reducing tariffs from 120% to 54% value, worth up to $800, under Monday's agreement. Such commodities were previously brought to the United States without paying any import duties and minimal inspections were performed.
The import has been severely criticized, not only accused of flooding the country’s cheap products, but also used by traffickers to bring in drugs, including fentanyl. Trafficking in fentanyl is the justification for the initial tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, so it is unclear whether the U.S. government remains concerned that the route may be abused by drug transporters.
While businesses welcome various tariff rollbacks and pauses, the resumption has not completely eliminated uncertainty. Long-term investments or supply chain decisions in many companies are not enough to suspend tariffs.
This is small businesses, accounting for 45.9% of the U.S. workforce and 43.5% of the U.S. GDP, which is the most acute due to its limited buffer, as we reported last week.
There are concerns that uncertainty will harm the U.S. economy. A Bloomberg poll of economists brings the chances of a recession next year close to 50-50, News Agency reported on Monday.
Although inflation has been used so far - consumer prices rose from 2.3% a year ago and down from 2.4% in March - economists say they expect inflation to rise in the middle of the year, and consumer confidence hit 13-year lows even before the sky’s high price returns.
On Thursday, Walmart, the world's largest retailer and the largest U.S. container importer, many of which come from China, warned that prices must start to increase by the end of this month due to high tariff costs, even if they are cut to 30%.
Trump has admitted that prices may rise - American children will have "two dolls, not 30 dolls. So the cost of these two dolls will exceed the price they trade," he said recently. But it is unclear how his tariffs are moving forward, even as some companies announced new investments worth billions and some are recovering their previous investments, such as Apple announced in February that it would invest $50 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, but analysts say the current commitment includes the current commitment.
But it was more about Legge's work in the next few years than local ones.