President Donald Trump has long had "no retreat, no surrender" in his guiding spirit, refusing to apologize or admit his mistakes, and declared him the main fighter of the American people. His intuition of punching and shouting “fight, fight” in the moment after being shot in the campaign became the defining image of his victory last year. He frowned in the official portrait and waved in the cup camera as most of the U.S. presidents stared at the world leaders.
But there is a big exception to this self-proclaimed tough image: Trump never really supports Vladimir Putin throughout his political life. Instead, he sometimes disguises the key points of the Kremlin conversation. After the 2016 election, it notoriously supported Moscow's own national intelligence services; it even inexplicably accused Ukraine of somehow forcing Russia to invade in 2022.
Since leaving office, Trump has continued to appease Putin as the two leaders try to negotiate an end to the Ukrainian war. Even so, the Russian leader repeatedly resisted him. Trump, perhaps worried about being humiliated in recent days, has begun to show glimpses of anger, raising the question of whether he may eventually take some stance against Putin.
Four administration officials told me that in the White House, the president’s own adviser was meaningless to his choice, speaking anonymously to discuss internal deliberations. Senior aides have begun to develop plans to punish Russia’s slow-walking peace process (including consultations with finance officials on new sanctions), but whether the proposals feel that it is a mystery, even for those working for the president.
Few people in the global capital or around Washington want him to get rid of Putin's precedent and excitement. Since Trump took office, the Russian leader has almost got everything he wants from Washington. Trump has weakened our soft power around the world and argued with traditional allies. He offered a loose measure for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, actually suggesting that he might lift existing U.S. sanctions on Moscow and normalize relations between the two countries, which could clear the way for Russia to return to where it had previously been on the world stage. For months, Trump has spoken seriously about his amazing energy and mineral dealings with Putin.
Trump insists that he can easily end the war and prove willing to accept Russia’s demand to get there. Despite a 30-day ceasefire in March, Ukraine supported a U.S. effort, which Russia rejected, but Trump repeatedly suggested that Washington would be easier to deal with Moscow than Kiev in negotiations. In late February, he (along with Vice President JD Vance) accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, declaring that he had “no card.” A few weeks later, he outlined a proposed peace plan that absolutely supports Moscow. In the plan, Ukraine will only obtain vague security commitments from the West and will not allow it to join NATO. Since 2022, Russia will retain many of the territories it conquered. The United States will also recognize Russia's control over Crimea, the Ukrainian Peninsula that Putin illegally annexed ten years ago and may limit weapons supplies to Ukraine. Zelensky publicly rejected the demands, and the United States threatened to leave peace talks last week.
Trump’s efforts to stop fighting last week were limited to a strange personal and plain social media: “Vladimir, stop!” But even after the weekend was brief, his approach was escalating. Trump showed rare anger in Moscow after meeting with the Ukrainian president at a funeral in Rome during a Russian strike in Kiev. Putin's public opposition to the U.S. call for an end to the conflict has made Trump look weak, which has clearly prompted the president to publicly slam Russia and demand that the deal be completed within two weeks. "There's no reason Putin has been to fire missiles at civilians, cities and towns over the past few days. It makes me think maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just laughing at me and has to deal with it differently." Trump posted on social media hours after leaving St. Peter's Basilica.
Three government officials told me that Trump was shocked by the Russian strike during Air Force One's flight from Rome, and aides angrily explored possible penalties for Moscow's actions. Options include: support for bills proposed by half of the Senate (25 Republicans and 25 Democrats), imposing sanctions on Russia if peaceful goodwill negotiations are refused. The measure would constitute major and secondary sanctions against Russia on any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium or other products, which in turn have funded the war in Moscow. Trump discussed sanctions with his aides during the flight, but has not yet promised to support them.
An intimate outside consultant downplayed the importance of Trump’s tough words over the weekend, suggesting they came hours after the Zelensky meeting in the Vatican. "Trump has been affected by the last time he heard it," the man said. "Once someone else enters his ear, it goes away."
Another way to increase Putin's pressure is to increase Trump's transportation of weapons. But this is seen as impossible, as the president and many Republicans, especially in the House, have been calling for a reduction in goods over the past year. The United States has restricted these goods since Trump took office, although some weapons are still passing. The government also briefly suspended intelligence sharing with Kiev.
"The only way Putin can stand up meaningfully is to keep his distance from Ukraine in terms of weapons and Intel, and I'm worried he's not going to do that," Richard Haass, who works in three Republican governments, told me before leading the Council on Foreign Relations. "Minor sanctions won't be done. I can't see what he's willing to do for Ukraine to convince Putin, it's not around him."
Trump's cabinet has little consensus on the next step. Government officials told me that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz were seen as the Mike Hawks in Congress and sometimes took a tougher stance in Moscow in private. But Rubio's public remarks echoed Trump's criticism of Keefe, and Waltz's influence within the administration has disappeared as he accidentally added Jeffrey Goldberg Atlanticto signal chat against Yemen’s attack plan. Meanwhile, Vance and other powerful voices within the administration (Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller) and outside (Right-wing media star Steve Bannon) advocated keeping the United States away from Ukraine and Europe. Rubio was released on bail in peace talks in Europe last week, and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin for the fourth time.
Some in the White House have already viewed Trump's refusal to publicly threaten Putin as a negotiating tactic. An official told me that “action is better than eloquence” and pointed out the tough measures Trump has taken during his first term, including imposing sanctions on Moscow, opposing the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, and providing deadly aid to Ukraine. (However, Trump ordered some of these aids to continue failed efforts, forcing Ukraine to announce an investigation into Joe Biden, a problem that was subject to Trump's impeachment.)
"The idea that President Trump will not stand on Putin or anyone on this issue is totally absurd and ridiculous," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told me. "President Trump's strength has caused this war to get closer to the resolution at the negotiating table."
Trump’s long history with Putin may have more than any recent actions, which suggests he will continue to comply with Russia. Trump praised Putin even before entering politics, including before Moscow’s Miss Universe pageant, wondering loudly if Russian leaders “will be my best friend?” The 2016 Trump campaign’s ties with Russia were strong enough that Robert Mueller’s independent conference investigation prosecuted 34 people and three Russian businesses, although Mueller ultimately believed the evidence was insufficient to accuse any member of the movement of the campaign of participating in a criminal conspiracy.
During Trump's first term, the Russian Hawks taunted the Russian Hawks in Congress with Republicans in Congress in Congress's national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and in Congress with Republicans to impose a series of tough sanctions on Russia's 2016 election intervention. However, Trump, again and again, weakened them. At a joint press conference in Helsinki in 2018, I asked Trump who he believes in an election interference, Putin or his own intelligence agency, the U.S. president made it clear that he supports Russia's opponents.
A year later, when Trump had the chance to meet Putin again, at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, several of his advisers urged him to avoid repeating Helsinki. Trump groaned. When reporters asked him at the summit whether he would warn Russian dictators not to intervene in next year's election, the president replied before turning to Putin: "Yes, of course I will."
Trump said with a sarcastic smile: "Please don't interfere in the election." "Don't interfere in the election."
Putin smiled.