The U.S. Court of International Trade defeated President Donald Trump on Wednesday under the International Emergency Economics Major Countries Act (IEPA).

The court ruled that Ipa did not grant the president the power to impose certain tariffs.

This has affected the "fentanyl" tariffs imposed by the White House in Canada, Mexico, and China since Trump returned to the White House. These tariffs were brought into the smuggling of anesthetics to the United States.

This also affected the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs announced on April 2, including general baseline tariffs on all U.S. imports.

However, the ruling will not affect the Trump administration’s “departmental” tariff on steel and aluminum imports, but also affect his additional tariff on automobiles and auto parts imports, as this is implemented under different legal defenses.

The U.S. federal appeals court ruled Thursday night that Trump's global tariffs could be temporarily left in place, considering the White House appeal to a trade court decision - but the future of the president's tariff agenda remains balanced.

Data from U.S. Customs shows that the amount of revenue collected so far in the fiscal year 2025 (i.e. between October 1 and April 30, 2024).

The data outlines the tariff ratios of the Trade Court's rulings.

It shows that since February 2025, tariffs imposed by IEPA related to fentanyl smuggling have brought in US$11.8 billion (£8.7 billion).

The 10% reciprocal tariff imposed in April (also justified in accordance with IEEPA compliance) brought in $1.2 billion (£890 million).

On the other side of the ledger, tariffs on metal and auto parts based on circular numbers (unaffected by this ruling) brought about $3.3 billion (£2.4 billion).

The largest U.S. tariffs during this period were derived from tariffs imposed on China, which dated back to Trump's first term, who raised $23.4 billion (£17.3 billion). These are also not affected by court rulings, as they do not have the rationality of the IEPA.

But, this is a picture of lagging behind - new tariffs are expected to increase more revenue throughout the fiscal year.

Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate that tariffs faced by the trade court may raise nearly $20 billion (£14.8 billion) each year.

As far as the overall impact on Donald Trump's tariff agenda is concerned, consulting capital economics estimates that the court ruling will reduce the average external tariffs in the U.S. from 15% to 6.5% this year.

This is still 2.5% of the 2024 level, which will be the highest level since 1970.

However, since the late 1930s, 15% will be the highest.

Trump has been using tariffs as negotiation leverage in negotiations with countries hit by his April 2 tariffs.

Some analysts believe the trade court ruling will mean that now, the country will now be unlikely to rush to reach a deal with the United States.

Last weekend, the EU stepped up negotiations with the White House after Trump threatened to raise the group's tariffs to 50% under the IEEPA.

The EU, along with others, such as Japan and Australia - may now judge what is cautious about the White House appeal against the Trade Court ruling before it acquires any trade concessions over the United States to obtain an agreement.

The reaction of stock markets around the world to the trade court rulings shows that this will be positive.

But this also means greater uncertainty.

Some analysts say Trump could try to re-establish tariffs with different legal defenses.

For example, Trump could attempt to re-impose tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to resolve foreign practices that violate trade agreements or are considered "discriminatory."

Trump also threatened tariffs from other departments, including drugs and semiconductors. If they are not proven to be reasonable by ieepa, it can still take effect.

Last month, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said the outlook for global trade “deteriorated sharply” due to Trump’s tariffs.

The WTO said it expects global commodity trade to fall by 0.2% in 2025, after forecasting 2.7% growth this year.

The ruling of the Trade Court (if enforced) may help global trade with a better responsibility than that.

However, the attenuation effect of uncertainty about whether U.S. tariffs are achieved.

Most importantly, many economists believe trade will still be severely affected this year.

“Trump’s trade war is not over yet – it hasn’t been for a long time.”