From a dramatic perspective, Kentucky's 151st Derby made a tough move after the tee photos were completed last year. But Saturday’s version has an interesting disability puzzle that can produce crazy results and offers a pleasant payday for those who can figure it out.
I would love to be one of them. Although my history makes me far less authoritative than these issues, I want to look at some angles.
His name is journalism, and he comes to the top of the tower with at least one famous indicator: the speed number. For every race played across the country, each horse is based on an algorithm designed to smooth out the differences between different race lengths and orbital conditions. The higher the number, the better the horse.
In one of two key Kentucky derby preparation games he won in Southern California, Beyer in the press is 108, and that's anyone in the field. Having the best Beyer doesn't automatically translate into victory, but especially in last year's run, the top four were all horses, who came in with five of the highest Byles in the field.
Knock on the door news? He made these numbers on small fields – only four competitors in each game. In the Kentucky Derby, he will face 19 enemies and have more traffic than ever before.
On the surface, the early pace of this year’s Kentucky Derby was high – the horses that wanted (or needed) were in the leader or just in their best form. The big problem with speed is that these horses tend to push each other too fast, too fast, burn them all, open the door, open the door for fresh competitors to cut them off.
Four out of five horses have the potential to flash early speeds (Citizen Bull, New et al., American Commitment and Appreciation of Daytona) in this year's race. The same goes for East Avenue and Almighty, and they will start further. That's the secret to a speed crash, and it might even allow someone to win from the cloud at a huge cost. Sandman and sovereignty are the most touted deep in the field. Tiztastic, Burnham Square and big chunks of gold will also appear from the far back, all of which will blow up the Tote board.
Bob Baffert, 72, is the most famous coach at the horse racing race and returns to Churchill Downs after a three-year ban. Officially, Bavert won the game six times (the seventh-time winner Medina Spirit, who was later disqualified after discovering a drug violation, which triggered his suspension) and supported some of the sport’s most ambitious and ambitious owners. Although this year's crops have, at least so far, he usually has the most promising lineup for the Kentucky Derby.
Baffert's incoming Citizen Bull may end up with a good price. He likes to stand in front, so if this enthusiasm develops, it may be damaged. (Note: Another piece by Baffert, Rodriguez, was scratched Thursday night. He is also a speed horse, so his exports can promote citizen bulls.)
The Citizen Bull faces a challenge to block the horrible number one inside on the railway. The last horse to win from the site was Ferdinand in 1986. He's better than anyone, and he knows how to win this game, even if the speed scene looks bad - he used to be 21-1 in 2002 with the War Sign.
As Rodriguez scratches from the game, Baeza will now join the field from a distant external post office. Don't let his late stage deceive you: this horse is the main competitor.
He fought his favorite journalism in Santa Anita Derby and held up a fight, lost less than a while, and released an impressive 100-speed rating. Like journalism, he believes it is possible to get out of speed and to burn the front of the horse and use it.
Japan is a relatively new person in the international racing scene, and for a while it was considered a feat just to bring a horse into the Kentucky Derby. But in the past few years, the Japanese plan has blossomed, with Japanese horses participating in major competitions in the Middle East and the United States
Last year, Forever Young became the first Japanese horse to win a Kentucky Derby, losing in three-way photos of the age group. This year, two Japanese runners admired Daytona and Luxor Cafe, who defeated Daytona twice and seemed to be the strongest of both. But no one knows how to make a Luxor Cafe that plays all the races in Japan, never facing any American horses. His video of victory looks very impressive, but how good is the horse he beats? Will this form be transformed into the United States?
Lonnie Briley should never be here. The 72-year-old folk Louisiana has been training horses since 1991 and has been successful, but mainly cheap horses are running for small prizes in the backwaters of racing. so far.
His horse coal battle may lack the rich breeding of enemies in this game, but it only makes his achievements even more impressive: from fall and winter, his incredible four-game streak on small stocks in fall and winter, from small stocks in Lowly Delta Downs to a 2nd grade rebel in Gentable Oaklawn Park, a 2nd grade rebel victory in Kentercucky Derby. That makes him the most accomplished horse Briley has ever made.
In fact, almost 15% of all the wallets Briley’s horses have won in the past few months have won the Coal Battle. Before that, Briley had never been away from the Kentucky Derby, and just getting here, he had no doubt. The odds for coal battles are long in this game (his speed numbers are bright), but even his rival coaches may smile.
When I type, I still tear it apart. However, I will share it with the rest of the NBC Sports team around 6:30 pm on Saturday.