Pro-European centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, supported by populist rights, each received about 30% of the vote in a discerning first round of the Polish presidential election.

Voting sets the stage for a round of runoff that will force voters to choose between clearly different horizons of the country’s future.

The IPSOS Institute's export poll was released on Sunday when Warsaw Mayor and Prime Minister Donald Tusk's candidate Trzaskowski won 30.8% of the vote in the first round. Nawrocki lags behind him, and he is recognized by the Law and Justice Party (PIS), with 29.1% of the vote.

Trzaskowski has long been an election favorite, but his lead over Nawrocki has narrowed in recent weeks. However, export polls show that the first round results are closer than expected between leaders, which could make Trzaskowski and Tusk nervous.

Tusk responded on social media shortly after the exit poll was released. Now everything is under threat, he wrote, adding that “the next two weeks will determine the future of Poland”. "No step by step!" he said.

The outgoing President Andrzej Duda is a close ally of the former PIS administration and a supporter of Donald Trump. He opposed the changes made by the new administration and blocked some decisions, including an ambassador nomination.

Potential opposition victory will prolong the current deadlock and drive years of political instability.

Official results for the first round are expected to be elected president on Monday or Tuesday, with 13 candidates going to be elected president.

The two candidates will fight against each other in a runoff vote on June 1, with voters demanding a decision between Trzaskowski’s commitment to reforming the judiciary and rebuilding democratic institutions, as well as Navaroki’s admiration for Donald Trump, strong anti-immigration rhetoric and powerful pledges to hit the “Woke” free value.

Supporters of the far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen, a liberal far-right candidate, rank third in third place, according to the exit poll. Mentzen, a staunch European skeptic who opposes abortion and immigration, targets the country's 1 million Ukrainian refugees, accusing them of using Poland.

Mentzen's massive votes show he benefits from frustrated voters trying to break the country's bipartisan power.

Trzaskowski spoke after the results were announced, warning voter Navoroki was a "radical" politician who would further undermine the country's severely polarized politics.

Meanwhile, Navoroki appealed directly to Mentzen, third-placed, urging him and his voters to help him “save Poland” and “stop Donald Tusk’s march”.

According to the exit poll, 6.2% of voters supported Grzegorz Braun in another surprising turn, which jumped lawmakers from the right-wing Federalist Party to fourth place. Braun used fire extinguishers to launch Hanukkah candles in the Polish parliament in protests against the celebration of the Jewish holiday, and two weeks ago the European Parliament voted to cancel his immunity as a European Parliamentarian.

Trzaskowski has been working to break into rural areas, although Navoroki's support has declined as the problem emanates from his purchase of apartments from an older person and advises that he fails to meet his obligation to provide care as part of the deal. He denied the allegations.

The vote for Poland’s next president is to shape foreign policy and can be used to introduce and veto legislation, a “money-making or break” moment for the country’s pro-European Union government.

Under Tusk, the alliance was united with political parties that span political scope. Since taking power in the second half of 2023, PIS has been accused of eroding democratic checks and balances and becoming increasingly authoritarian, and the coalition is able to follow promises such as reforming the judicial system, liberalizing abortion laws and introducing same-sex civil partnerships, plagued in part by the upcoming president and the upcoming and Rzej duda.

The deadlock is vaguely visible in the presidential election, turning the vote into a question of whether voters want to proceed through a political overhaul of the PIS deportation from the country’s parliament in 2023.

"For those who are ruling the coalition and those who are related to the future of Polish democracy, the stake is huge," Jacek Kucharczyk, chairman of the Public Affairs Institute in Thinktank, Warsaw, told the Associated Press. "It's about democratic reform and restoration of the rule of law - only the cooperation of the next president can happen."

Tusk's response to the sentiment, said last month that the bets were as high as the 2023 election. "It's hard to rule all of this veto power with a hostile president," he told parliament.

Many people in Europe pay close attention to the election. Poland borders Russia's Kaliningrad Disprave, Belarus and war-tor-tor-hardened Ukraine, has been a key logistical hub for Ukraine's military aid and under Tusk's leadership, Russia's eastern side of NATO.

Elections may also prove to be the key to law and justice. "With Nawrocki as president, the government will be paralyzed, which could eventually lead to the downfall of the ruling coalition," political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska told AFP.

She added that this could mean "returning to populists with renewed troops" in the next election.