According to export polls, Warsaw Liberal Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won a narrow victory in the Polish presidential election, but a second runoff with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki will be asked to decide on the country's next president.

Trzaskowski, deputy leader of the Centre-Citizen Platform (PO) party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, won 30.8% of the vote, according to a poll released at the end of the vote.

Navoloki ranked second with 29.1% of the vote.

If the final official results confirm the poll - not expected until late Monday - Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will play in the second round on June 1, as none of the 13 candidates won more than 50% of the vote.

Trzaskowski told his supporters at a rally in Sandomiles, southern Poland: "We will win." But he said it takes a lot of work and "great determination."

"I firmly believe Poland will win," he said.

He promised to work with Prime Minister Tusk to amplify the country's strict abortion laws and accelerate reforms to the Polish judiciary, which was widely politicized by a former PIS-led government.

Trzaskowski's performance was worse than the polls predicted before the vote, which put him ahead of Nawrocki by 4%-6%.

The Polish president has largely the right to ceremoniality, but he or she is able to veto the government's legislation. Tusk's alliance does not have a large enough parliamentary majority to overthrow the president's veto.

Tusk failed to provide many campaign commitments, partly because incumbent Conservative President Andrzej Duda rejected his administration legislation, but also because of differences within the coalition on issues such as abortion and civil partnerships.

Trzaskowski's victory will eliminate the president's veto, but Nawrocki may be more difficult than Duda.

Nawrocki told his supporters in Gdansk that Ivory must be prevented from winning all power in Poland.

He visited Slawomir Mentzen, a supporter of two far-right candidates, who finished third, won a 15.4% title, Grzegorz Braun finished fourth and won a 6.2% title, "save Poland" from Tusk.

It depends largely on which candidate can mobilize voters in the second round.

Nawrocki was overwhelmed on the scale of the state before Law and Justice (PIS). But he has improved in his work, and PIS has traditionally been good at voting.

Trzaskowski will need to win votes from his centrist party supporters, as well as those who support junior coalition partner candidates, left (Magdalena Biejat) and conservative third road (Szymon lownia).

Another concern for Trzaskowski is better than expected by far-right candidates, as many of their supporters won't vote for him.

The result of Mentzen is that since entering parliament in 2019, Mentzen has performed strongly and continues to improve his far-right federal party.

Who will his main young voters return to?

Many would support Nawrocki's Catholic, family-oriented view, but they did not like Pis' left-wing economic policy on generous national interests.

Mentzen is an anti-establishment candidate, and some of his supporters may not want to vote for Nawrocki or Trzaskowski, which represents two parties that ruled Polish politics for two decades.

The far-right MEP, Grzegorz Braun's result was an annoying surprise for the liberal voters in Poland.

Braun made headlines in 2023 when he put candles on the Jewish candlesticks in the Polish parliament and paired fire extinguishers in the Polish parliament after a ceremony on Hanukkah.

Braun calls the festival "Satan". During the presidential debate last month, he said: “The Jews have made too many voices in Polish affairs.”