Victoria's new treasurer Jaclyn Symes, who has set out from the state election for 18 months, has devalued a budget that feels more like a campaign than a serious plan to fix the state's abused finances.

There is a understanding among the workers' MPs that it is not easy to win the fourth consecutive championship in 2026. The budget appears to be aimed at taking the government a long runway towards this goal.

It also bets that Victorians will remember what they built, not the debt to build it.

As the first female treasurer in Victorian history and the first person outside of Tim Pallas to offer a budget in a decade - expectations are always high. But even so, Symes' first outing is incredible, perhaps because most of the new spending was announced ahead of Tuesday's media lockdown, or simply because there are a lot of them.

While rating agencies and economists warn that the state must control spending and address its fierce debt, the 2024-25 budget splashed billions of dollars, including additional health funding of $11.1 billion, public transportation of $5 billion, roads of $1 billion, and public transportation costs of $2.3 billion, including $23 billion of electricity supply that sells for $100, including $100 in public transportation range, supply supply supply, and free bonuses.

Apparently, this is for families (Symes mentioned eight times in his budget speech), like last year’s young people, couples without children and couples looking to buy their first home, although Jacinta Allan’s promise last year was to “get millennials into the house” last year.

For the business sector that has frequently criticized the government in recent years, the budget offers an olive branch: no new or increased taxes and a $627 million support package. There is also an acknowledgement in the budget document that Victorians already pay more taxes per person than anyone in any other state or region. Victorian Chambers and Industry Conferences described the budget as a “positive signal.”

Sems told reporters Tuesday that the budget is “responsible” and insists that the government can invest in services and infrastructure when managing debt. She pointed to the $600 million operating surplus forecast for 2025-26, the first evidence since the common pandemic. But when including infrastructure and capital expenditures, the cash bottom line is $12.2 billion in red for the next fiscal year, as seen in the eyes.

Despite GST's surprise gains and $3.3 billion in public sector cuts, even the humble surplus was $1 billion lower than December's expectations. Sims said it was a deliberate decision to give up a larger surplus and put that money into “Victorian priorities.”

“Budgets are all about balance,” she said. “Yes, it’s probably going to be higher. We chose Victoria’s priorities and hopefully you’ll learn about it in the budget and what we announced today.”

Semis describes the country's net debt as "gradually lowered into part of the economy" - a statement that is technically accurate, but merely fair. While net debt as economic share is expected to fall from 25.2% in 2026-27 to 24.9%, the 0.3 percentage point decline is small. In fact, the state's net debt shows no sign of peaking. Its price grew from $167.6 billion in 2025-26 to $177.44 billion in 2026-27, $185.2 million in 2027-28, and then $19.4 billion in 2028-29.

Employee expenses are expected to remain flat, up only 2.9% per year throughout the forward estimate. This is an optimistic assumption, along with other rose-colored predictions included in the budget.

Victoria remains in the weakest financial position of any state, which is reflected in its "AA" credit rating, which is the lowest in the country.

Rebecca Hrvatin, a global rating analyst at Standard & Poor’s, said Tuesday’s budget was not a big surprise and the state is improving its “lasting fiscal recovery.” But it's as positive as it is.

Hrvatin stressed that if Victoria is to maintain a credit rating, Victoria must continue to work on its slow-motion budget repairs, but questioned the government's commitments - especially in the November 2026 elections.

“Growth of public spending, including the government’s wage bill, and the fulfillment of committed operating savings are key to strengthening its financial outcomes,” she said.

"However, these goals have been difficult to achieve in recent years. Fiscal discipline is important, especially under the leadership of the 2026 national election, as we see many Australian state governments losing control of their budgets in elections."

The budget highlights infrastructure projects that will be available online by the end of this year: Metro Tunnel, Westmen Tunnel, Footnote Hospital and the rebuilt Frankston Hospital. Three more community hospitals will be completed in 2026. They may all be famous in the campaign, part of the Labor narrative, namely “get things done.”

Reflecting on her visit to Parkville Station (one of the flagship subway tunnel stations), the day before the budget, Sems already leaned towards that information.

"It's amazing, people are going to say years ago' Labour government did something, they built things, liberals didn't," she said.

“I believe that’s what people remember from this time.”

Not the state of books. Not the size of the debt. Maybe not even the history of Victoria's first female treasurer.