US stocks are rallying, but beware of headwinds

Traders worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading in New York City on April 30, 2025.

Michael San Diego | Getty Images

There is a mild air in Wall Street. Stocks have been rising all week. The S&P 500 has just finished its fourth game with a bump of 4.54% over the last four days.

Of course, with the United States negotiating agreements with other countries, tariffs don’t look that tricky. But that's not to say it's a perfect path forward.

For example, despite an agreement with the United States, China is still retaining rare earth metals, which is crucial for important industries such as defense and energy, from exports to the United States

Similarly, even if India reaches an agreement with the United States, U.S. President Donald Trump seems to want more than just want to impose U.S. import taxes. Trump told Apple CEO Tim Cook that he doesn't want the Cupertino-based company to be "built in India". It's hard to imagine India agreeing to make Apples-or let the Big Apple really start making Apple products.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared to be aware of the complications and warned Thursday that the “supply shock” could be “more frequent and possibly more durable.”

Therefore, the buoyancy in the market may be aroused by people - the United States on the weekend - the China trade deal caught the attention - and this buoyancy may disappear once the gravity of the economic headwind takes over again.

What you need to know today

Powell warns of potential supply shock
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Fed meeting on Thursday that long-term interest rates could be higher because "inflation may be more frequent, possibly more frequent, and may be more lasting supply shocks." Powell did not propose Trump's tariffs, but marked the surrounding risks at the Fed's May meeting.

The fourth day of the S&P Clock victory
On Thursday, S&P 500 Obtained 0.41%, its fourth positive meeting, Dow Jones Industrial Average Up 0.65%, but Nasdaq Composite Materials Underperformed, down 0.18%. On Friday, the Asia-Pacific market was mixed. Japanese Nikkei 225 The country hovered around the plane line of the country reported that its economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, up from 0.1% expected in a Reuters poll of economists, the first signing in a year.

"A small problem with Tim Cook": Trump
During Washington's trade relations with India on Thursday, Trump said he doesn't want to apple CEO Tim Cook builds the factory in India. "I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday," Trump said. "I said to him, 'My friend, I treat you very well. I don't want you to build in India."

Rare earth exports from China are still blocked
China temporarily suspended export restrictions on 28 U.S. companies after a trade deal reached by Beijing and the Trump administration over the weekend. But it continues to block exports of seven rare earth metals to the United States. These metals are crucial to the U.S. defense, energy and automotive industries.

Putin and Trump skip peace meeting
Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his White House rival Trump chose to skip Türkiye-Ukraine-Russia peace talks. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Ankara on Thursday, he responded to the slightest diplomacy, saying that a delegation of lower-level officials sent to Turkey by Russia showed that Moscow showed Moscow was not serious.

(PRO) UK - US deals benefiting from European automakers
British businesses are still spreading precisely what the recently unsettled UK trade deal means to them. The EU has not yet reached its own deal. Still, one of the group's largest economy will see gains due to its UK presence.

at last...

A man walked across an electronic board 225 index along the Nikkei 225 index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on April 7, 2025.

Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images

Japanese assets experienced record inflows in April as investors fled the U.S. market, analysts expect Asian countries to remain attractive

Foreign investors bought 82.1 trillion yen ($56.6 billion) of Japanese stocks and long-term bonds in April, government data showed. Net inflows are the largest inflow in a calendar month since data collection began in 1996, according to Morningstar.

Rashmi Garg, senior portfolio manager at Al Dhabi Capital, said Japanese assets are often considered paradise, and his appeal received a narrative of "selling" in April.

Additionally, Trump’s policy triggers can maintain interest in Japanese assets “even if it’s not as strong as April levels”, said Vasu Menon, managing director of OCBC’s investment strategy team. Menon said ongoing talks with the U.S. about tariffs also raised some optimism about reducing Japan's 24% "countdown" tariffs.