U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a clear warning at the Shangri-La security conference in Singapore on Saturday: China's military is "practice for real deals" and a full-scale invasion of Taiwan may be imminent."

He added: "We won't go to sugarcoat - the threat posed by China is real."

China launches large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, issuing a "serious warning"

Beijing quickly rejected the charge. Admiral Hug Gantffen, head of the Chinese delegation and vice president of the China National Defense University, called the remarks “unfounded allegations”, noting: “Some claims are completely fabricated, some facts are distorted facts, some are cases of thieves crying, crying. ‘Stop thieves.’ “Despite such denials, an increasing number of people in China are indeed against a military operation, which is indeed to prepare for a military operation.

Many indicators have come to this conclusion. Here are nine:

1. China has stepped up joint marine and aerial exercises around its Taiwan, including rehearsals of simulated blockades, surrounds and amphibious assaults. These exercises closely reflect the operational strategies that may be employed in the actual invasion and are widely interpreted by analysts as specific signals of Beijing's willingness to use force.

2. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) positioned the H-6 bomber to be able to deliver nuclear payloads at outposts such as Woody Island in the South China Sea. These platforms greatly expand China's strike capabilities and use it as a strategic messaging for Taipei and Washington.

3. China continues to carry out the gray belt operation, which is a non-movement form of coercive forms, including cyber attacks on Taiwan’s infrastructure, disinformation movements and illegal invasions of maritime militia ships. Although these actions are below the threshold for open warfare, they are designed to eliminate Taiwan’s defense and destabilize the region.

4. According to a U.S. intelligence assessment, Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to invade Taiwan from 2027 to 2027. While not a confirmed action deadline, it promotes the modernization of PLA, highlighting the integration and readiness of the joint forces.

5. China’s strategic expansion in Latin America, especially through belt and road investments, and attempts to influence key nodes such as the Panama Canal, reflects a broader ambition to project global power and surround U.S. interests. These moves indirectly support Taiwan-related ambitions by dispersing or over-expanding the U.S. responsiveness.

6. Recent PLA exercises incorporate civilian ferries capable of transporting tanks and personnel to prepare for amphibians on the coast of Taiwan. The dual use nature of these assets has allowed China to cover up military accumulation under the guise of civilian activities.

7. Beijing has strengthened its political narrative around “unification”, including state media coverage, education reform and speeches by senior Chinese officials. These ideological signals are usually ahead of military operations in a dictatorship.

8. China has rapidly expanded its coastal infrastructure, including new terminals, airports and logistics hubs in Fuji Province, directly spread across the Taiwan Strait. Satellite images show that these assets are optimized for cross-type operations.

9. Chinese fighter jets and warships entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) at an unprecedented level. In early 2025 alone, PLA aircraft violated Taiwan’s Adiz more than 1,200 times, prompting Taipei’s readiness to improve.

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The question of whether China invades Taiwan is no longer a hypothetical issue, but a calculus of time and risk. Although Beijing continues to deny aggressive intentions, evidence suggests that the ongoing and intentional military accumulation is to force unification – if not peace, then force.

Hergs' warning is not a reflection of the alarm, but a sober assessment of reality. These indicators (military exercises, strategic deployment, political speech and infrastructure mobilization) are consistent with historical precedents of pre-invasion posture.

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The international community must take this threat seriously. Strengthening deterrence, improving intelligence sharing, and strengthening Taiwan's self-defense capabilities are crucial to avoiding regional disasters. For the United States and its allies, preparation is no longer optional, but a strategic priority.

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