tOP negotiators from the United States and China will meet in Geneva on Saturday as the world’s two largest economies try to navigate a barrier from a disrupted trade war that undermines global supply chains, slows economic growth and sends shocks from electronic institutions through electronic products.
Negotiations will mark the first face-to-face meeting between senior officials of the two countries since President Donald Trump imposed historically high tariffs on most of the imports of China in early April. They followed Trump's heels and reached a "complete and comprehensive" trade deal with Britain on Thursday, leaving many key points unresolved.
But I hope that this weekend's breakthrough will remain silent. Trump, who has long condemned the U.S. trade deficit with China and other countries, has worked this week to make a sharp slowdown in goods from China a positive sign. "We're losing a trillion dollars a year, and now we're not losing anything, that's how I look at it," he said Thursday.
Some analysts have expressed doubts about the results that the meeting would lead to any tangible results. "The United States is not particularly interested in what others want," said Mary Lovel, an expert in U.S.-China relations and a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The United States still relies on many personal goods, so China still has a lot of power in this relationship.”
Here’s what it takes to know about Saturday’s trade talks between the United States and China.
US officials Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead, saying they see these initial negotiations as an opportunity to start ease of tensions. Besent told Fox News Tuesday.
Chinese negotiators led by Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng are acting cautiously and making concessions without signs of compromise. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian wrote on X: "Putting pressure on or coercing China in any way."
Still, after months of economic edge skills, some analysts see the decision to bring senior negotiators from both sides to the table as a step forward. Although expectations for breakthroughs remain low, the fact that both countries agree that the conversation expresses recognition of the enormous cost of long-term conflict. “If we see situations about how to proceed, it would be a win,” Lovel said.
Trump slammed a provocative tone before the conversation, telling reporters On Thursday, his government's tariff strategy "absolutely no business" made China "absolutely no business" and expressed confidence that the negotiations were "very substantial".
Trump cited multiple goals in his trade war with China. On Thursday, he reiterated his interest in tightly controlled markets open to U.S. businesses and shaped the conflict into a broader battle with what he called “unfair” Chinese trade practices: “We want to see China open up so that we can compete in China and provide people with some people they have never obtained,” Trump said.
Eliminating non-tariff barriers to U.S. exports will echo the framework of Trump's trade deal in his first semester, which stipulates that China will purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports within 2020 and 2021. However, China has failed to buy these levels and has failed to buy promising American products. Bessent told Fox News The Trump administration will consider Chinese violations when negotiating a new trade deal.
Trump has in particular angered the United States remains the single recipient of Chinese exports, but less than 13% of China's total exports. His initial trade war strategy focused on a series of rising tariffs, with most of China currently importing at a rate of 145%, and prompting China to retaliate against 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump predicts that his tariffs will lead to a revival of domestic manufacturing as the company moves factories to the U.S. to avoid import taxes.
The Trump administration has also prompted China to take more aggressive action against trafficking by fentanyl and its chemical pioneers, which experts say has exacerbated the opioid crisis in the U.S. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that China needs to "stop fentanyl entry" as part of trade negotiations to blame former President Joe Biden on a deal that he once ruled one of his rule in one of his rule.
While Trump insisted that the negotiations would be "substantial", officials on both sides downplayed expectations for an immediate settlement.
Analysts say the best results this weekend could involve a temporary pause of tariff increases or a joint agreement between the parties to continue negotiations. However, the fundamental issues that divide the two sides, including the U.S. demand for market entry and China's insistence on a state-centered economic model, are unlikely to be resolved soon.
Lovely said China may have the upper hand in negotiations for three reasons: The United States relies on many of China's products, China has already cultivated markets outside the United States, and President Xi Jinping is not facing upcoming elections. This could allow China to take a more patient approach in negotiations. “I don’t think China is eager to reach an agreement,” said Cute. "Yes, it will hurt China, but China certainly isn't looking for a trade war with the United States...XI has all the political support he needs to explore the storm."
Coupled with the pressure on Trump, his tariffs have caused serious pain to American businesses and consumers. Reverends, e-retailers and agricultural exporters have all warned of rising costs, while West Coast ports have reported a sharp drop in exports from China.
There is a difference between the two sides in which they initiated the meeting
Despite the joint decision to hold talks in Geneva, both sides held the meeting in a very different way, emphasizing ongoing distrust, which defines the confrontation between the two largest economies in the world.
Chinese officials insisted that the U.S. demanded negotiations, and Trump passed by telling reporters that “they should go back to study the documents.”
"We can all play games," he said. "Who made the first call, and who didn't make the call?"
The controversy over who initiated the speech reflects a deeper challenge: neither side wants to appear weak.