The Democratic governor's primary election in New Jersey will boil down to the last month. Although the game is still fierce, some candidates show that they think Rep. Mikie Sherrill is the one to beat.
Five of the six Democratic contenders will face off in a two-and-a-half-hour debate on Sunday, after a fierce encounter earlier this week previewing the possible attacks at Sherrill. Jersey Mayor Steve Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka targeted the barbs at the congresswoman and regarded her as inexperienced and mild, meaning they saw her as an obstacle.
But the game is still very smooth. Limited public polls show that sled leads this lead, with candidates gathering largely and in the wrong margins of the investigation.
"This is the most unstable race of my 30 years of working in New Jersey," said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky.
The game is difficult to measure because such a fierce primary is unusual in the state where party bosses wield their power to anoint their preferred candidate. But when the state changed its current ballot last year, county parties lost the ability to give its preferred candidate position on the main ballot. Andy Kim, DN.J.
Fulop, one of the most important contenders, later added: "This is very unpredictable."
County parties may still influence the competition, using their turnout actions to promote their recognized candidates. While Fulop and Rep. Josh Gottheimer did not seek recognition from most counties, Sherrill received support from most counties, including major Democratic strongholds such as Essex and Middlesex.
"She is a machine candidate and is seen as a leader," Fullop told NBC News. “I don’t think it’s a secret.”
Sean Higgins, a Sherrill campaign spokesman, said Fulop described the characteristics of a congresswoman as a candidate for the political machine "very lazy and inaccurate."
"If you look at her running game records, her 2018 campaign was taking advantage of and bringing a wave of grassroots enthusiasm," Higgins said in a statement.
During Monday's debate, NJ Spotlight News hosted NJ PBS and WNYC (Fulop and Baraka both targeted Sherrill, accusing her of vague "clichés" and being too gentle.
Fulip said he targeted Shirley on Monday because he felt he wasn't getting enough scrutiny, especially as the perceived leader.
According to videos of a press conference for Baraka's campaign, the mayor of Newark "I disagree with her as a progressive one. I think her record makes it clear." Baraka also clashed with Gottheimer during the debate, and the mayor thought he was too conservative.
Sherrill said in a debate on Monday that she had re-supported leaders from both sides, noting that she pushed Trump's first impeachment and would serve as governor.
“In New Jersey, (this is) making sure we bring him to court against these Medicaid cuts and return federal funds to New Jersey,” she said.
State Sen. John McKeon, Sherrill supporter, suggested that the attack on Sherrill's lack of execution experience is "the person who looks for the tone."
"It's not persistent," McKean said, pointing to her experience as a naval pilot and prosecutor to prove she can lead the state government. “Trenton is not an easy place, but I think it will be a side dish compared to what she has done in her life.”
McCann said he welcomed any attacks from her during Sunday’s debate, noting: “When she was challenged, she was in her best shape.”
Although some Democrats see Shirley as the top candidate in the game, this is all relative. Democratic primary polls show that there is relatively little separation between competitors, especially compared to the advantages of repeated candidate Jack Ciatterelli in the Republican primary. Democratic races still open their doors, crowded areas, with millions of dollars covering Garden State radio waves ahead of the June 10 primary.
"Each of them has a way to win," said Robinsky, a democratic strategist.
Sherrill’s campaign is committed to expanding her from a broad constituency of voters in the House to a statewide campaign where she can capitalize on her position as the sole woman in the primary. She highlighted her background and flipped the Republican district in 2018 and regarded herself as the candidate who best hired Trump.
"Voters really want someone who can beat Republicans," said Sherrill campaign spokesman Higgins.
Higgins later added: "If people are looking for winners and we know they are winners, I think they'll land on the logical choice, actually doing that. That's Mickey."
Fulop, who described his typical supporters as "pragmatic progressives", said the party should reject the candidate's victory in November and should not be afraid to criticize Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who was unable to run due to term limits.
While Democrats may want to compete in a match about President Donald Trump, Fulop predicts that the final Republican nominee will be a referendum for Murphy. He believes the governor has not adequately cracked down on the state's high cost of living, transportation difficulties and a culture of political corruption.
“The reality is if you are an agency candidate defending Phil Murphy again and you think you will be in the election and talk about Trump, you will win, you will be blown up,” Fulop noted, who made a profit in New Jersey last November. He lost 6 points, up 10 points from his profit margin in 2020.
Both Fulop and Baraka have appealed to the party’s progressive voters who may help among voters fighting Trump after being arrested in federal immigration detention last week.
Meanwhile, Gottheimer may stretch in the middle as a moderate candidate concentrates his news on affordability and lower taxes. He also served as a candidate for the cross-border appeal, beating a Republican congressman in 2016, even if Trump nearly carried his area.
"While the same old status quo candidates shot each other in this game, Josh focused on two biggest battles facing Jersey: fighting Donald Trump and to lower our costs and taxes," Gottheimer campaign spokesman Peter Optiz said. "Josh is the only candidate who plans to cut taxes and get things done, and that's what he did for the Jersey family as governor."
Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, who relies on his experience with the state government and lags behind other candidates in some public opinion polls, may become some of the sole candidates from South Jersey, with their high turnout backed by some important county parties.
"Steve is the guy who represents a stable hand, and I think a lot of people in New Jersey want to see, especially in Washington," said Sweeney spokesman Kerry Lyons.
The sixth candidate, former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, failed to meet the fundraising threshold, which would qualify him for public campaign funds and participate in the debate. But Spiller, the former head of the state’s teachers union, benefits from more than $8 million in advertising in New Jersey, a super PAC associated with the New Jersey Education Association, which he can get promoted from educators in the state.
Gottheimer and Super PAC support his campaign has spent $19.4 million on ads so far this year, followed by Fulop and his aligned Super PACs, which Admimpact said, Ad-Tracing Firms Admpact. Sherrill and her Aligning Super PAC have spent much less so far, $2.9 million. Baraka and his Super PAC spent $2.7 million, Sweeney and his Super PAC spent $2.5 million
Sherrill's lower spending so far was a strategic decision for the sport, and the campaign chose to hold its funds until the final weeks, when it thought voters would adjust the game.
Fundraising reports submitted earlier this week showed that as of May 9, Sherrill's campaign had $4.7 million in its account, more than double the next-in-come candidate. From Friday to June 10 primary, Sherrill retained the most airing time of all candidates so far, nearly $1.8 million. Her Allied Super PAC is a huge LEAP PAC that retains $922,000.
Even if millions of dollars have been spent, candidates mostly stick to positive messaging — although Sweeney did launch a TV ad last month that beat the “weak” Democrats and showed off Sherrill, Gottheimer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. image, but no mention of them.
It remains to be seen how the attack will increase, and when or when it will gradually increase. However, each candidate is looking for a way to get out of his backpack in just a few weeks.