An employee worked on a pink salt production site in Sasyk-Sivash Lake near Yevpatoria on September 21, 2023.
Round beam | AFP | Getty Images
The landmark resource agreement between the United States and Ukraine is expected to lay the foundation for a further so-called “muscle mineral” agreement.
Washington and Kyiv signed a highly anticipated mineral agreement earlier this month. The agreement has since been approved by Ukrainian lawmakers to deepen economic ties, strengthen Ukraine's reconstruction, and position the country as a supplier of U.S. strategically important minerals to the United States
This partnership has been more than three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine after months of negotiations by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Ro Dhawan, CEO of the International Commission on Mining and Metals (ICMM), said representing about one-third of the global industry’s trade body, said the U.S.-Ukrainian deal was not the first, and certainly not the last bilateral agreement to have such a close integration of minerals and geopolitics.
“I think we’ll likely see more deals with producer countries to get what I used to call ‘muscle minerals’. So, “Give me your minerals and I’ll give you safety, or other forms of trade agreements,” Dhawan told CNBC via video call.
For example, Dhawan of ICMM said he could “absolutely imagine” a deal between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo that will be the world’s largest cobalt reserve in the near future.
Dawan and the United States and Canada say natural resources may also play a key role in thawing the “very frost” diplomatic relations between the United States and South Africa.
He added: "We are at a turning point in the way the mineral is. We have seen the first act, probably Ukraine, and I think there are more twists and turns in the way that starts to form now."
Key minerals refer to subsets of materials considered essential for energy transition. These minerals tend to have high risks of supply chain disruption, including metals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements.
China is the undisputed leader in key mineral supply chains, accounting for about 60% of the world's rare earth minerals and materials production. U.S. officials have previously warned that this poses a strategic challenge in a hub of low-carbon energy.
Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow at the Center for Geoeconomics of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, said geopolitical competition in Washington and Beijing has made critical minerals at the center of the U.S. national security agenda.
Assuming they are commercially recoverable, Ukraine’s large number of key minerals and rare earth elements could “provide a potentially secure supply chain for many of the materials the United States needs”, says Crebo-Rediker.
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Presidents Donald Trump are funerals of Pope Francis in the Vatican on Saturday, April 26, 2025.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP
Timothy Puko, commodity director at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, said he was "somewhat doubted" about the prospect of "bilateral minerals" for the bilateral "muscle" agreement.
"I think that's what you're seeing in Ukraine. I think Kinshasa is now very clear trying to pursue this with their cobalt-Copper status and the (Rwanda-backed) M23 rebels," Puko told CNBC via video call.
But besides Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Puko said he "would be hard to foresee" any further agreement. He added that Canada, Australia, Indonesia and several mineral-rich Latin American countries are unlikely to trade muscle-type with the United States.
Although Russian invasion forces bombed the threat of Russian invasion forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on February 26, 2025, they still loaded the earth and minerals on an open-pit mine near the frontline.
Pierre Crom | Getty Images News | Getty Images
"Beyond Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, there may not even be a Democratic Republic of the Congo, and now no other country really wants to trade all midstream businesses. Resource nationalism is the name of the game now, and the trend is indeed the opposite."
"There is definitely a horse deal here. It's a huge geopolitical issue. I'm sure it's coming right now in the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations, but there are huge obstacles to replicating what Ukraine is trying to do with many other countries."
Trump's trade tariff policy and repeated calls have caused Canada's 51st state to tense diplomatic ties between neighboring countries and sparked US pride and anger
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told Trump earlier this month at the White House that his country “is not for sale” and “never for sale.”
Trump replied: "Never say forever."
Canada doesn’t need a muscle deal with the U.S. with the U.S., said Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Ottawa-based public policy think tank.
"What we need is more certain in our trade relations. This is the biggest obstacle to re-producing and processing minerals to North America to combat China's manipulation of the global mineral market," Exner-Pirot told CNBC via email.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke to the media after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the Canadian Embassy on May 6, 2025.
Mandel and |AFP |Getty Images
Exner-Pirot said Canada and the United States have been interdependent over the course of 150 years.
More importantly, Exner-Pirot said Canada and the United States have worked with NATO and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). NORAD is a national organization between Canada and the United States, mainly responsible for defending against aerospace control and maritime warnings in North America.