Since US President Donald Trump took office in January, the world has been hypnotized by a ceasefire in Ukraine. It's easy to understand why. The election of a U.S. president who wants to act as a Ukrainian agent rather than a Ukrainian supporter is seen as an opportunity to undermine the status quo and stop bloodshed.
However, effective wartime diplomacy requires the application of the right amount of leverage (fixed and carrots) under the appropriate parties. Trump introduced the ultimate factor by promising a swift result when it proved impossible, unsuccessful threats to get rid of negotiations altogether. But he failed in rewards and punishments, waving the sticks of all attacks on the attacker while keeping all the carrots for the attacker. He opposed Ukraine, blamed the war and once suspended aid to the army. Meanwhile, he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As a result, there was no closer to meaningful negotiations with Trump when he won the U.S. presidential election in November. Countries have heard and seen a lot - Moscow's pro-Trump messaging, Kiev negotiations, European American outreach and all shuttle diplomacy. But these are fewer bridges than trying to flatter the U.S. president: The goal is not to end the war, but to bring Trump closer to one side and stop him from sliding to the other.
But Trump's pursuit is always difficult. The distinct reality is that neither Russia nor Ukraine have much motivation to stop the fight. Moscow established a wartime economy, allowing it to continue fighting, and it was difficult to stop doing so. Ukraine is not in the mood to compromise its sovereignty, and its military remains strong enough to continue to defend effectively. As a result, at present, a ceasefire in Ukraine is impossible.
Ukraine’s friends in the West have been disagreeing on evaluating what Russia wants. According to some, Putin is pursuing a limited agenda and will gain limited gains. According to this logic, for example, the Kremlin might, based on a deal that recognizes the portion of Ukrainian occupation, be Russians and guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Others firmly disagree. They believe Putin's comfort will only encourage him. The Russian president came to Ukraine, and his state was irreconcilable with his historical role. The group strengthened its position by citing Putin's pre-war paper "On the Historical Unification of Russia and Ukrainians", who argued that the Ukrainians were not an independent nationality, but a willful Russian who had to be brought back under Suzerainty in Moscow. The Russian leader also repeatedly stated in his meditation on peace talks that any solution must resolve “the root cause of the conflict”, namely, eliminating Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Some Western policymakers understand this, but believe that the longer the war, the weaker the Ukraine stance, the greater the chances that it will have to surrender. Then, what's worse now than later is that you accept bad deals now. Trump himself seems to agree with this. He told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February.
Kyiv believes that it has time to strengthen its position.
This way of thinking sounds reasonable. But this misreads Ukraine's hand. Kiev can certainly have better cards, but the country is not that desperate and must be folded now. Ukraine relies on Europe to protect it from the possible changes in the course of war caused by U.S. military support. Ukraine also knows that the situation on the front line is not that scary. In December 2023, Russia controlled about 42,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory. In December 2024, that number grew slightly to about 43,600 square miles. Since then, Russia's stake has remained in effect. As of late May, Russia owned about 43,650 square miles of Ukrainian land.
Analysts keep an eye on the news and have read reports about Russian troops taking one in another square mile and village. But to enlarge a little bit, the country is said to have only 1,650 of the 233,030 square miles of Ukraine in the past 16 months. In other words, Moscow has risen from 18% of Ukrainian territory at the end of 2023 to about 19% today. Kyiv believes that there is time to strengthen its position both in diplomacy and on the battlefield.
Of course, there are factors beyond Russian territorial progress that can change Ukraine's calculus, including Moscow's credible shift towards more limited goals. Kiev may also be upset if Europe fails to provide weapons to compensate for the lack of delivered weapons in the United States, and Ukraine’s air defense collapse without providing a US-made PAC-3 interceptor. (Such missiles may be Trump’s biggest source of leverage.) Kiev, if its civilian infrastructure is further damaged, Kiev may begin to consider concessions. Putin realizes this, which is why he sends out more drone and missile barrage than ever before.
But so far, Ukraine's air defense measures are being upgraded. Europe is announcing new military aid to Ukraine while investing in defense production on the mainland. Although the Russian army has not made a huge breakthrough, Putin shows no sign that he is ridding his goal of authoritarianism. Therefore, it is impossible for Trump or anyone else to push Ukraine to make an unfavorable deal, and this does not believe that Russia will respect Russia.
However, Trump’s failure with Ukraine does not mean that his Russian policy does not have a security impact. The president's embrace of Moscow and its corresponding hub away from Europe are driving the mainland to become more independent and expose the people. European countries are working to develop a stronger military and a better defense industrial base, but not enough to meet their own needs or Ukraine's needs. Trump said he would not withdraw from NATO. But given his open hostility to Europe and his history of withdrawing from the United States from foreign wars, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. troops would die in Europe.
The combination of this factor has caused Putin to attack NATO allies in Europe. Unlike Ukraine, his initial goal was not to conquer the country, but to expose Europe's weaknesses and the falsehood of NATO's commitment to collective security. But in the next few years, he would be better off actually capturing NATO territory before Europe effectively fills its defensive gap, before Trump is replaced by a US president who cares about the continent.
Moscow was able to open a new front while still fighting Kiev. It was established on the border between Russia and Finland and Norway, similar to the Russian border it established along the Ukrainian border in spring 2021. It has become increasingly aggressive in the Baltic Sea. It recently announced large-scale practice with Belarus.
Putin is willing to make his people endure the hardships of most countries pursuing military goals. He has a close relationship with China, while Ukrainian camp is plagued by opposition to read Russia's ultimate goal. He is running a war economy. Then, Putin may be preparing to fight simultaneous wars of different sizes.
For Ukraine, the ceasefire at the end of the tunnel is the light of the oncoming train.
Europe imposed a set of sanctions on Moscow, which are both politically and financially valuable to prevent Russian aggression. But no matter how satisfied the EU will be with each new restriction, the EU cannot weaken the Russian war machine. Encouragingly, the group is intensifying its crackdown on its shadow tanker fleet that evades sanctions, but that will not lower Russian oil prices to make a significant difference.
Putin may start to change his mind, and if he sees the price of Russian oil continue to collapse, it will allow his war economy to snatch financial resources. However, affecting this collapse requires active participation from the United States, which is leveraged in the global market. Washington needs to impose tougher sanctions on Russia's oil industry and convince Saudi Arabia to be one of the world's largest suppliers and India is one of the largest consumers of Russian oil to join its efforts. Such an alliance will need to keep China from interfering, partly because its goal is the end of war, not Russia. Given its close ties with China and the United States, Riyadh seems to be doing this best.
But these steps are extremely unlikely. Trump has made a harsh attitude towards Putin, but there is no indication that he is ready to take strong action against him. Meanwhile, India and Saudi Arabia have no appetite for this range of Kremlin. This clearly means Putin will continue to earn enough income from the oil trade to finance war efforts, perhaps not only in Ukraine.
Therefore, the era of peace in Europe seems to have ended. Wars in Ukraine are more likely to stop. Putin has no reason to relax, Zelensky has no reason to surrender: the Ukrainian president believes that part of Ukraine will now eventually lead to Kiev losing all. For him, in this case, the ceasefire at the end of the tunnel was the light of the oncoming train. Nothing is predetermined except death. Trump and others have the right to change their opinions and strategies. But what the best Europeans can do now is to speed up their efforts to arm themselves for Kiev.
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