The author is a contributor to FT, chair and researcher of the Center for Freedom Strategy at IWM, Sofia
In his recent books A miserable mindAmerican strategist Robert Kaplan observed that “although the understanding of world events begins with the map, it ends with Shakespeare.” However, it is not clear how reading maps or reading Shakespeare can help explain the amazing fact that Russia, the United States and Germany seem to have switched roles.
U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to recognize the annexation of Crimea, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and imposing sanctions in Moscow, just like Washington's own version of Ostpolitik, West Germany's West German policy is with their Eastern counterparts. All of this was at the moment when Berlin rose through huge investments in the defense sector, fantasizing about becoming a serious military force.
American- Is the German "exchange" real, or is it a Shakespearean decoration that disappears at the end of the script? It is worth remembering that most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war in Ukraine, and only a few Germans are actually ready to fight for their own country. Trump’s echo peace proposal is more than just a “Minsk-3,” that is, is ambiguity distrust and destined to collapse?
There is little reason to doubt that Trump's determination to end the war is sincere. He seriously underestimated Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but the fact is that the protracted war will be a mass disaster for the country. He may even advise those who advocate more sanctions on Russia and send more weapons to underestimate the risk of sleepwalking nuclear war.
The wrong thing about Trump is to place the war in Ukraine is mainly a land dispute outside Europe. The geostrategic importance of reducing conflict was a major breakthrough in his policy to the previous government.
If this could lead to peace or even a long-term freeze of conflict, it would be unimaginable that Biden is also ready to impose territorial concessions on Ukraine. Biden may also agree with Trump that Crimea is unforeseen in the foreseeable future. And, let’s not forget that Biden never really planned to invite Ukraine into NATO.
But there is a key difference: Biden will not accept recognition of Crimea's annexation as a ceasefire price. Other leaders realized that Ukraine’s national pride was crucial and that saving its moral victory would be crucial to the survival of the country and any European safe building in the future. If he read more Shakespeare (I suggest starting with history), Trump may have understood that while Ukraine’s humiliation may be the fastest (and cheapest) way to stop a fight, it still cannot achieve peace. Pride and sacrifice are the bricks to become a nation.
By complimenting Putin, adopting his narrative of the war, and selling the peace deal as a gift in a possible Victory Day celebration in Moscow, Trump hopes to bring a compromise to Russia.
But the latest signal from Moscow shows that Putin is not looking for compromise - he is looking for victory. Even if Trump succeeds in stopping the fight, a temporary ceasefire will still trigger the risk of internal conflict in Ukraine without security guarantees, which is suicide for Kiev and its European allies. This could spark a new wave of immigration that could threaten political stability in European societies and fuel tensions between member states. This will further break Europeans’ trust in American security assurances.
The U.S.-Ukraine agreement signed on Wednesday on mineral resources could help Trump get out of the trap of being stuck. The U.S. president can now increase pressure on Moscow, believing that any further land grab is a direct attack on the U.S. Although Washington may have lost its enthusiasm to defend its democratic allies, it is determined to defend its assets. But how likely is this situation?
It can be argued that the US's Ostpolitik is also the result of Washington's ever-changing geopolitical priorities, one of Trump's wild improvisations. Compared with China, it is related to China. The new Ukrainian-born partnership between Moscow and Washington aims to undermine Russia’s dependence on Beijing and support Russia’s strategy toward the United States in the Middle East and Arctic, rather than ensuring a stable future for Kiyff.
But whether your understanding is born from reading maps and developing grand strategies or reading Shakespeare and considering human weaknesses and miscalculations, the current situation represents one thing for Europe. The historical period that began with the reunification of Germany ended with Ukraine’s partition.