UFC middleweight champion Belal Muhammad won his first championship defense against Jack Della Maddalena at the main event at UFC 315 on Saturday night (8pm on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+) and took the 6:30 pm preliminaries on ESPN+/Disney+ as an example.
Muhammad, who ranked 10th on ESPN's pound list, has not lost the battle since January 2019. Recently, he defeated Leon Edwards by unanimous decision. ESPN's third-ranked middleweight Della Maddalena remained unbeaten in the octagon with seven consecutive victories. Della Maddalena defeated Gilbert Burns' third round TKO in the last battle.
Women's Fly champion Valentina Shevchenko puts her belt to Manon Fiorot's boundary in the joint home game. Shevchenko ranked second in the ESPN Pound Women's Ranking. ESPN's third-ranked pilot Fiorot won 12 consecutive battles, the last five unanimous decision.
Brett Okamoto talks with retired UFC middleweight Dan Hardy to get a view of the main event, while Andreas Hale talks with UFC Strawweight Angela Hill to get a breakdown on the shared event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis to the two championship battles he likes on the cards and other interesting bets.
Editor's Note: The response has been edited to be concise and clear.
How Muhammad wins: Mohammed is a comprehensive fighter. He was strong, but he didn't mean to overwhelm himself. His speed wasn't overspeed, but fast enough to strike. He would most likely fall because he knew Della Maddalena's hands were so sharp that he might fall. If I were in his corner, I would have Muhammad work longer in this battle. I also hope he wants to kick a lot. Della Maddalena's stance is very solid, so Mohammed can do some damage to his leading leg. He could do something Canelo Alvarez does well - intentionally targeting his opponent's arms. Usually you will disguise yourself on your arms, but kicking your biceps, triceps and forearms is valuable
How Della Maddalena wins: When asked "Who has the best boxing in MMA?" Della Maddalena is one of the names that come to mind. He just has good basics. He moved his feet and recognized the goal well. However, he needs to find room to let go without feeling that Mohammed disappears and shoots every time. He has real intuition, which is an advantage he has over Muhammad. One of the biggest problems people encounter when they are boxing in MMA is overexcited and tend to cover too much ground. Della Maddalena does not have this trend. When people throw with too much power, they tend to stand up. Della Maddalena is unable to do this here. He needs to work in his pocket, but maintain his fundamentals. If he does this, he will cause many problems for the champion.
x factor: Della Maddalena's fist swung her body. If he can weaken Mohammed and slow him down, that will stop him from shooting.
prophecy: Mohammed won by unanimous decision. I left a deep impression on him. Della Maddalena is a threat, but he only needs to fix his game a few points before defeating someone like Muhammad.
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Parker: Mohammed wins (-185). If you've been wanting to bet on Muhammad, now is the time. His line dropped from -220 and was almost even hard to eliminate. The biggest gap between the two is Mohamed's aerobics and wrestling. Yes, Della Maddalena has a great stunning and knockout round, but Muhammad just ruled Leon Edwards without any problem, and it's hard to imagine the fight happening differently. Especially considering that Della Maddlena fled Burns in the last battle was a knee. I hope Muhammad goes out and works hard and uses his leading wrestling to secure his first successful championship defense.
How Shevchenko wins: Shevchenko looked unparalleled in her final battle with Alexa Grasso at UFC 306 last September, and she will do the same for Fiorot. Shevchenko can throw away almost everything on her feet. To set herself apart, she added a sleek match. We saw her allowing Taila Santos to try in reverse in their 2022 round, but Shevchenko seems to have added this since. Her highest pressure impressed in three straight games. When Grasso lifted their legs, Shevinco kept calm and used it to pass Grasso's guards. Even if she did give up on the bottom, she was already on her way back to the top. These skills are against Fiorot, who waits to fight back until the opponent charges forward. Fiorot also has no active ground competition. It looks defensively, but she is not actively looking for ways to pass the defender. Fiorot tends to lean on the side when stressed, looking for hook combos, which can lead to the champion’s annoying head kick. It may take some time for Shevchenko to find her rhythm, but once she keeps her momentum moving forward, she should be able to keep a step.
How Fiorot wins: Fiorot is big for the department and is good at defending strikes. She kept her opponent in the bay with long combos, checking hooks, side kicks and sneaky kicks. When she strikes, her angles are good, making it difficult for the opponent to shoot in the shot. However, she doesn't like pressure, especially when opponents are not interrupted by their standing attacks. I love that when she mixes in batting, the grand slam against Erin Blanchfield last November showed her figure and strength. But Fiorot hasn't ended his opponent since June 2021, so it's hard to see her late end if she falls and scores. She needs to use counters and footwork to push the pace of all five rounds to prevent Shevchenko from getting beads on her.
x factor: Shevchenko is an experienced veteran. She has seen everything and has had a lot of five rounds of battles. She cheered up every time, adjusted between rounds and showed off her different versions. Fiorot is big, which can cause problems with Shevchenko in the logging sector and be able to close the distance between them.
prophecy: Shevchenko won by decision.
Parker: Fiorot wins (-135). Shevchenko brought a trilogy from Grasso, winning a new champion opponent in Fiorot, who brought a radical and amazing style. She is strong and has excellent defense. Unless Shevchenko is able to wrestle for five rounds, she will spend a tough night with the French warriors. Find Fiorot to resist early attempts and use her physical kicks and long-range strikes to win and become a champion.
Zahabi wins (+170). Aldo wants to oppose Zahabi after his controversial losses to Mario Bautista. For Zahabi, beating Aldo would be the biggest game of his career, giving him a standout in a deep split. I like Zahabi at the underdog odds. Aldo has become a small forward who can hold him in control and fight against the cage for a long time. I don't want it to be an exciting battle, but I think Zahabi will have a solid game plan and will follow the blueprint for others to beat Aldo.
Silva made the decision. Silva won the former title, hoping to become the key to the title with victory. Silva is extremely dangerous everywhere in battle and she should have a speed advantage on her feet, which will cause problems for Grasso. I can't see any fighter ending in this battle, but I want Silva to lead the dance and win through decision making.