(Bloomberg) - U.S. consumer prices may launch in April after a minimal improvement of nine months as many companies are trying to pass higher tariffs, which signal a wider acceleration.
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According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the price of Americans paying for goods and services and the cost of energy that does not include volatility (excluding volatile food and energy costs) will rise by 0.3%. In March, the so-called core consumer price index rose by only 0.1%.
While Tuesday’s report may show limited passes to date with the U.S. higher duty to import goods, many economists expect that the impact will become more pronounced over time.
This helps explain consumers' growing concerns about inflation and the economy and job markets. Retail sales are expected to show some anxiety on Thursday. After a healthy 1.5% increase at the end of the first quarter, economists predicted little sales in April as the highest demand for motor vehicles cooled.
In their case, companies are trying to reduce the cost of tariffs by rising prices and try to prevent sales from falling as consumers recoil from sticker shocks, trying to prevent sales from falling.
As the Trump administration temporarily calls certain tariffs while struggling to reach a trade deal for a specific country, some businesses may delay price increases. U.S. officials held talks with China in Switzerland over the weekend.
What does Bloomberg economics say:
“Even if the cost of tariffs is mainly borne on the U.S. side, why is consumer price inflation so moderate? We think this is because demand is slowing (retail, retail, Thursday), and retailers find it difficult to pass higher prices without much-needed demand drops without a sharp drop in demand – although this will not work well.
- Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economist. To perform an analysis, click here
Meanwhile, a recent survey of manufacturers and service providers showed that rising input costs could force them to make price adjustments. The government's producer price index in April will shed light on evolving wholesale cost pressures.
After keeping interest rates unchanged on May 7, Fed policymakers said trade policy would lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Inflation and retail sales reported headlines for the busy week of U.S. economic data. In addition to weekly unemployment claims, traders will also focus on colleges on the May May Consumer Sentiment Survey in Michigan, which includes inflation expectations.
Other reports include the start of housing and industrial production in April. Meanwhile, U.S. central bankers plan to speak, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday. He will comment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy review. Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and Gov. Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller are scheduled to appear in separate events.
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney will unveil a new cabinet that will be responsible for the ambitious economic agenda, including removing internal trade barriers and repositioning exports. Home sales in April will see the spring downturn, while Ontario, the country’s most populous province, has released its budget.
Elsewhere, GDP has seen inflation data from Japan to the UK and Switzerland, multiple speeches by central bankers and highlights of possible interest rate reductions in Mexico.
Click here to get what happened in the past week, here is our package of what’s going on in the global economy.
Asia
Days after the U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva, trade ministers from APEC gathered in South Korea on Thursday and Friday to develop a strategy to maintain about 49% of global business.
The focus will be on ensuring viability of regional supply chains and any tips about the possibility that U.S. measures could replace so-called AI proliferation rules.
India will report April's trade data on Thursday, which could highlight the importance of its proposal to reach a zero tariff on steel, automotive components and pharmaceuticals. Indonesia released its own trade account on Thursday.
Among other data, consumer inflation in India was found to cool down to its slowest rate since July 2019 by 3.2%, which allowed the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates again when it formulated its policy on June 6.
Preliminary data on Friday are likely to indicate that the Japanese economy has fallen into a contraction in the January-March contraction for the first time in the year. Business investment can be seen slowing, while private consumption is expected to stagnate.
Australia received a gauging of April business sentiment and May consumer confidence on Tuesday, and a day later, the first-quarter wage price index is approaching. Finally, the unemployment rate in April will expire on Thursday.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
UK data will shed light on an economy, with its cloud-like outlook putting the Bank of England cautious in Thursday's decision. After three-point votes were made between officials, the BOE cut a quarter, with a few hoping to reduce or not at all.
On Tuesday, UK wage numbers may show weaker wage pressure at a time when inflation is significantly higher than the 2% target. Thursday's GDP report could show growth in the first quarter before the Trump trade war broke out.
Eight of the nine members of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee plan to speak within a week, including Gov. Andrew Bailey. At least 10 European Central Bank officials also appeared on the calendar.
Most data issuances in the region are second estimates of growth or inflation, except for the ZEW investor sentiment survey in Germany on Tuesday and the euro zone industrial production on Friday. A highlight will be the European Commission's spring economic forecast this weekend.
Switzerland and Norway released their first-quarter GDP figures on Thursday. Swiss National Bank president Martin Schlegel will speak in Lucerne the next day, just as zero inflation and a strong Franc are his next policy move.
Israel's central bank will note on Thursday whether inflation slowed down from a 3.3% reading in April. It remains above the target of 1% to 3%, while the war in Gaza continues to expand, complicating efforts to reduce it.
On Friday, Russian officials will look for signs that inflation, which is currently more than 10%, may weaken in April. After holding key interest rates at record highs last month, Russian Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the price increase could peak in May.
In monetary decisions, Uganda officials could reduce the critical rate from 9.75% on Tuesday; the announcement began rescheduling from May 8. Inflation remains below the 5% target, and since mid-April, the stability of shillings has been largely stable.
Romania's central bank is expected to hold borrowing fees on Wednesday before the presidential runoff elections held on May 18. The recent market sell-off and the weakest LEU on record may prompt officials to say a tightening in the future.
Latin America
Wednesday's data should show that national inflation in Argentina could slow for the 12th straight month. Although the monthly rate may exceed 3% in the second month, it has dropped below 50% for the first time in nearly four years.
Chile's central bank released its meeting minutes on Thursday for its April decision to keep its key interest rate at 5%.
In Peru, April labor market data for the capital Lima and March GDP-Proxy report are being clicked. The Ministry of Finance narrowed its forecast for 2025 GDP from 4% to 3.5% earlier this month.
After a escalating rate hike on May 7, Banco Central Do Brasil's final communique sounds like "We're done." Brazil Watchmen will conduct a double check in Tuesday's minutes.
Colombia became the second economy of the region’s Big Six in the upcoming week to report first-quarter output. Economists believe GDP growth accelerated in 2025 for the second year.
Mexico's central banks will almost certainly cut their seventh consecutive drop rate (perhaps half a point, to 8.5%) on Thursday, despite insufficient inflation in April.
- With the assistance of Brian Fowler, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski, Robert Jameson and Tony Halpin.
Most of them come from Bloomberg Business Weekly
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