The United States is preparing to burn more natural gas in the coming years to meet soaring electricity demand, potentially locking in emissions that have contributed to rising global temperatures for decades.

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions barely wavered By 2024, despite the country’s massive investments in clean energy Inflation reduction methodPresident Joe Biden signs landmark climate law. Market analysts say the U.S. reduction target Cutting heat-trapping pollution levels in half compared to 2005 levels by the end of the century is now almost out of reach.

For the power companies responsible for keeping the lights on, natural gas appears to be a reliable way to augment energy supplies for new data centers and factories, as well as for consumer goods such as electric vehicles and heat pumps.

Ben King, associate director at energy research firm Rhodium Group, said utilities must meet demand “no matter what.” “The way they feel most comfortable and confident is using the same stuff they’ve always put on the grid.”

Failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will have its own consequences. this United Nations says The world needs to eliminate or offset all greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century to avoid more catastrophic impacts of climate change. Natural gas produces fewer emissions than coal when burned, but producing and transporting it releases large amounts of pollutants Methanea potent climate pollutant.

"Business-as-usual projections are pretty dire when it comes to climate change," said Daniel Jacobs, a professor of atmospheric chemistry and environmental engineering at Harvard University.

"I don't think it's the end of the world," Jacobs said. "But it makes a mess of our society."

Companies say they want clean energy, but they only take what they can get

U.S. electricity demand over the next five years Expected to grow nearly 16%According to consulting firm Grid Strategies. This is huge for an industry that consumes huge amounts of electricity Annual growth rate is less than 1% past 20 years.

There are already signs that a construction boom in the natural gas industry is coming.

Gas turbine maker GE Vernova expects global orders to reach 20 gigawatts last year, nearly double orders for 2023, CEO Scott Strazik said. Speaking at a meeting with Wall Street analysts December.

“I can’t think of a more interesting time in the natural gas industry,” Straczyk said. The industry is also celebrating the election of Donald Trump, who has pledged to advance the country’s economy during his second term. Fossil fuel industry.

Companies that use natural gas to produce and generate electricity already dominate the U.S. electricity market. This fuel is used to generate approx. 43% of the country’s electricity 2023.

“That number is going to grow in the short term,” said Cy McGeady, a fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "How long it will last and to what extent it will be, that's hard to predict."

Data centers are driving power demand

Demand is growing in large part because companies are building data centers to power artificial intelligence, which consumes more electricity than the traditional internet. Grid Strategies said demand is also increasing as U.S. manufacturing grows and businesses and homeowners swap products that run on fossil fuels for other electricity-powered products, such as electric vehicles.

Highlighting the challenges posed by increased demand, Regulators warn As old coal-fired power plants are retired, much of the country may not be able to generate enough electricity in the coming years, increasing the risk of blackouts.

Fossil fuels are not the only answer to growing demand. When grid power is scarce, businesses can reduce electricity usage or draw power from batteries. There is a big push to add renewable power plants to provide more electricity. But industry analysts say regulations need to be simplified so companies can build clean energy projects and connect them to the grid more quickly.

Industry analysts say it remains challenging to provide electricity around the clock without causing climate pollution. For example, new nuclear power plants could play a key role, but "they're going to take a while to build," said Taylor Norris, a researcher at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment.

So, some utilities are Delaying plans to phase out aging coal-fired power plantsmany want to burn more natural gas.

"Meeting demand growth is a huge challenge," said Chris Seiple, vice chairman of power and renewables at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. "Meeting demand growth in a decarbonized way is an even bigger challenge."

What happened in the U.S. power industry last year showed how difficult it is to increase the supply of electricity without increasing emissions. Climate pollution in the power sector has increased as natural gas and renewable energy are used to meet a 3% increase in electricity demand, according to a report. Rhodium Group preliminary assessment.

Sepple said big power users are saying they need clean energy. But "if that's the only thing they can get, they're going to go with gas," he said. “They would even go to coal-fired power if that was the only thing they could get.”

A grid that already burns huge amounts of natural gas will use even more

Rhodium's King said even if the U.S. burns more natural gas to generate electricity, the amount of climate pollution from the country's power sector likely won't increase much because companies will continue to cut back on coal. But any delays in reducing emissions pose risks, as scientists say the world needs to act faster than now to curb the worsening effects of global warming.

“Staying flat or rising slightly in power sector emissions is not a step in the right direction,” King said.

Last year it was hottest on record After global emissions reach new highs 2023. As the world becomes hotter, the risk of extreme heat waves, storms, floods and wildfires will increase.

At the end of last year, Hurricane Helen swept through the southeastern United States and then devastated mountain towns in North Carolina. That storm was accompanied by Hurricane MiltonHit Florida about a week later Estimated cost Insurance companies amount to $55 billion. Now, wildfires around Los Angeles are expected to cause Damages and economic losses amount to $275 billionaccording to preliminary estimates.

Duke's Norris said it's also a troubling sign for other countries' climate efforts.

"If not even the United States or the richest countries in the world can make meaningful progress in reducing emissions, then from a global perspective we are in very serious trouble," Norris said.