Twilio shares soar after issuing upbeat 2027 forecast

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler speaks at the Twilio Signal event in Sao Paulo on August 14, 2024.

Courtesy: Twilio

Cloud communication software manufacturer twillio on Thursday issued promising profit forecasts for the coming years.

As part of its three-year guidance framework, the company expects adjusted operating margin to expand to 21% to 22% in 2027. This was higher than the Visible Alpha consensus of 19.68%. Twilio's adjusted operating margin in the most recent quarter was 16.1%.

Twilio unveiled the new guidance at an investor event on Thursday. Executives also committed to generating $3 billion in free cash flow over the next three years, with free cash flow expected to be approximately $692 million in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Twilio's consensus Visible Alpha from 2025 to 2027 is $2.76 billion.

The company's shares rose more than 10% in after-hours trading after the company released a briefing on the event.

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler told CNBC ahead of the company's investor day that if 2024 is about rebuilding Twilio's foundation, then 2025 is about execution.

"If we execute well in 2025, I think we'll start writing our story in 2026," said Shipchandler, who joined Twilio as finance director in 2018 after 22 years at GE and will take over in January 2024. Replaced co-founder Jeff Lawson as CEO in September.

Twilio, which sends text messages and emails to customers, did not release a 2027 revenue growth target at Thursday's event.

On Thursday, management also provided guidance for 2025. It calls for free cash flow of $825 million to $850 million and adjusted operating income of the same amount, with revenue growing 7% to 8% year over year. Visible Alpha's consensus is for adjusted operating income of $814 million and free cash flow of about $808 million. 2025 revenue forecasts are in line with the LSEG consensus.

More than 9,000 artificial intelligence companies are already building on Twilio services. These include OpenAI, which in December launched a 1-800-CHATGPT service leveraging Twilio's voice tools.

“We hope to be able to accommodate more of these businesses and larger businesses,” Shipchandler said. “We’re in open season on both.”

Shareholder pressure intensifies

After Twilio stock went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2016, investors piled in as the company delivered consistently high revenue growth rates. The stock moved lower in 2022 as investors became more interested in profitable companies and interest rates continued to rise. Meanwhile, Twilio's revenue growth is slowing.

According to CNBC, shareholder opinions influenced the restructuring, which included 17% layoffs in early 2023, with activist investors Anson Funds and Legion Partners Asset Management strongly advocating for the sale of Twilio or one of its business units.

Since activist investor Sachem Head Capital Management won a seat on Twilio's board of directors last April, Twilio shares have risen about 81% as revenue growth accelerates and losses narrow.

Mizuho analysts said in a note earlier this month that Twilio has the opportunity to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 and beyond. Analysts have given the stock the equivalent of a buy rating.

Twilio said that by expanding into new areas such as conversational artificial intelligence, its total addressable market could reach $158 billion by 2028, compared with $119 billion when focusing solely on the communications and customer data platform categories.

A spokesman said the company does not believe it needs to make acquisitions to enter new overall target markets.

Twilio's preliminary fourth-quarter results showed revenue rising 11%, with adjusted operating income exceeding the high end of the $185 million to $195 million range the company posted in October. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected revenue growth of 7.9%, with the consensus on adjusted operating income being about $190 million, according to Visible Alpha.

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