Donald Tusk's ruling coalition suffered a bruised defeat in the presidential election in the Polish prime minister, weakening his reform plans and raising doubts about the government's survival.

Tusk decided on Monday that he needed to seek a vote of confidence in parliament to continue to rule after the victory of the ultra-conservative Karol Nawrocki, which allowed him to face another hostile president, able to strip him of his policy plans.

In a brief speech to the country, Tusk said he had prepared a "contingency plan" to deal with the influence of Navoroki and his right-wing nemesis Yaroslaw Kachisky.

But the victory of the Kachisky Law and Justice (PIS) party has exposed a deep rift in Tusk's clumsy ruling coalition, which stretches from the conservative peasant party to the Greens and left-wing radicals.

Marek Sawicki, a conservative coalition partner, has increasingly speculated in Warsaw that the results will force early elections, demanding that Tuske resign, saying: "If a horse doesn't pull, you'll change it instead of giving it a lighter shopping cart".

Meanwhile, Magdalena Biejat, the leader of Tusk's left-wing alliance partner, argued that Nawrocki's election showed "the impact of the half-measure policy and was similar to the far right." While some Tusk's legislators support the anti-abortion legislation proposed under PIS, others push to legalize same-sex marriage as part of their progressive agenda.

Tusk has called for a full renegotiation of the coalition agreement from Poland in 2050 so they can implement "real change." “I know these are painful words, but now it’s a better statement than crying two years later: the Minister of Poland representing Poland in 2050.

Andrzejbobiński, managing director of think tank insight, said Tusk's alliance is facing "a bad look". He believes Tusk is most likely to "turn right" to take the ground back from PI and the far-right federal party, but says it has the potential to alienate his more progressive partners and trigger a coalition breakup.

Recent polls have shown that PI can win SNAP parliamentary elections with the support of the far-right federation. Katski said on Monday that Poland’s democracy “showed teeth” and called on Ivory to resign to make room for a “non-partisan” technical professional government.

Nawrocki overturned Tusk candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, as the leader in the entire campaign. Then, based on initial predictions, Tusk's candidate then nearly won the first round and announced a premature birth victory on dramatic election night, giving him a razor lead.

Maria Skóra, a Polish visitor researcher at the European Policy Centre of the Brussels think tank, said failure was not "everywhere" and was "a red card for the ivory government."

Tusk's legislative agenda was largely blocked by another PIS nominee Andrzej Duda and a Constitutional Court and was bound by a judge appointed by PIS. Tusk initially responded with an "iron broom" and most notably, he was accused of taking over state radio and television sets TVP just days after taking office in December 2023.

Once the polls began to show that voters began to feel disillusioned with voters due to the slow pace of reform, Ivory consolidated their power base, waiting for Duda to leave for a new start, even at the expense of junior alliance partners.

"Ivory has been a lot to marginalize its allies, but based on some false assumptions," said Adam Gendouwiłvol, a professor of political science at the University of Warsaw.

Gendíwiłłet said Tusk was also misunderstood because smaller partners could only earn temporary gains in 2023, a vote that was ultimately won under his civic platform.

But the election was exposed to competition between Ivory and Katsky, whose bipartisans defined Poland's political landscape for twenty years. In the first round, two-fifths of voters chose candidates other than both, and many young voters helped radical politicians achieve both sides in the political field.

Anna Wójcik, a legal scholar at Kozminski University in Warsaw, said the result will challenge Tusk's view of him, "had this battle with Kaczyński in the Polish direction". She expects “many moves within these coalition parties” and some may try to distance themselves from the civic platform.

While early elections remain a clear possibility, the threat of extinction could convince smaller coalition parties to stay in government. Under Polish law, parties must obtain at least 5% of the votes to enter the parliament, which is increasingly unstable for some of Tusk's allies.

Tusk apologized for the government's shortcomings shortly before the vote. But despite the setbacks on Sunday, Ivory, who is also the former president of the European Council, remains the main pro-EU politician in Poland.

His leadership on the civic platform is not challenged, and his ability to anti-intellectual emotional emotions still resonates with some voters.

"It may sound paradoxical, but if there is an apocalyptic atmosphere right now, it still makes Ivory the only one on the political stage that can save Poland," said Bobiński, director of the think tank.