In October, the capital's financial district is a general view of the city's skyline.
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Global markets suffered new volatility this week after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose tariffs on imports from three of the U.S. largest trading partners.
Trump agreed on Monday to stop 30-day tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and both countries agreed to take steps to cut fentanyl opioids and push their borders across the United States.
However, China has no pause, it faces 10% import tariffs, followed by retaliation against tariffs on U.S. goods.
Further afield, European economies are also at risk from Trump’s tariff regime. The U.S. president told reporters on Sunday that EU tariffs on the EU "definitely happen", but said "a deal can be reached with the UK", which is a country with more balanced U.S. trade.
"British is out of place. I'm sure I think a problem can be solved," Trump told reporters. Starmer.
According to The Guardian, Starmer told reporters this week that he had discussed trade in talks with Trump and would not choose a side between the United States and the European Union.
Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves insisted last month that when it comes to trade deficits, the UK is “not part of the problem” when it comes to Trump’s hope to correct his tariff policy.
According to official data, the United States is the UK's largest trading partner, and as of September 2024, the United States was more than 17% of the UK's total trade volume.
Based on the numbers you are looking at, either the two countries have a small trade deficit or a surplus. But, it is important for Trump that when the United States exports less than imports to a country, they hate it - the numbers are almost balanced.
When the UK economy struggled - Reeves said last month that she was “working every day to start starting” to grow.
Irina Surdu-Nardella, professor of international business and strategy at Warwick Business School, told CNBC that even if the UK does suffer from tariffs, the impact may have been more than expected.
“In fact, the impact on the UK market will be relatively limited to industries such as fishing and mining,” she said. “The service-focused UK economy greatly avoids the consequences of tariffs. Tariffs particularly harm industries with complex supply chains, As the company tries to convert input into the final commodity, the commodity crosses the border many times. Again, this is not the case in the UK market, mainly export banks and consulting services to the United States.”
The five largest exports of the UK to the United States are cars, medicines and medicines, mechanical generators, scientific instruments and aircraft, with a total value of £25.6 billion (US$31.8 billion).
However, the value of these exports is dwarfed by their largest service exports, including financial services and insurance, with a total value of £1009.6 billion.
Neri Karra Sillaman of Oxford's Business School said avoiding tariffs completely is ideal because it can strengthen key industries in the UK.
"If the UK remains tax-free, it could be a unique position to attract investment, talent and new trade partnerships," she told CNBC on Tuesday.
“As tariffs drive businesses to find more cost-effective hubs, the UK could be the go-to portal for companies looking for restrictions,” she said. “Luxury, fashion, pharmaceuticals and advanced manufacturing (where the UK already excels) There may be a lot of investment and trade opportunities in areas such as this.”
She added that if U.S. buyers are outside tariff suppliers, the UK sector, including the automotive, aerospace and finance sectors, could also benefit from increased demand.
"We've seen these patterns before - every trade war has changed the global economic balance, which could be a time for Britain to take advantage of the change and become an active player, not a bystander," Sillaman told CNBC.
Alex King, a former FX trader and founder of personal finance platform currency generation, agreed that Trump's policies could provide some economic relief to the UK.
"When the U.S. first imposed tariffs on China, Chinese manufacturers listed many goods as the U.S. through Vietnam and Thailand to avoid tariffs," King said via email. "If the UK does avoid tariffs, then from a similar route to the EU," he said via email. Benefiting is a potentially favorable position.”
The king also argued GBP It could be the "main winner" of the potential trade war, noting that the pound rose against the euro, Canadian dollar, Australia and New Zealand currencies after Trump's initial tariff confirmation last week.
GBP/USD
He said it was a sign that global investors “may see the UK as a potential haven”.
“Ultimately, the UK may be one of the few major economies with relatively invaluable access to the United States and the EU, making it a potential winner.”
On Tuesday, Sterling cut trade with some of its earnings to the Euro, about 83.13 pence per euro. But the pound strengthens the dollar.
BRI Wealth Management CEO Dan Boardman-Weston said the UK has a "fighter" to avoid U.S. tariffs, which makes it an attractive market for investors.
“If Trump imposes tariffs on other countries, more commodities will eventually be lowered in the UK, which will curb inflation,” he said. “If tariffs become more severe and become a more permanent feature of the global trade landscape, It is likely to make a bigger intrinsic investment in the UK.”
He noted that in the UK, interest rates may now be faster and faster than in the US.
"When this is combined with the UK's relative political stability and cheap valuations, the UK is overweight in 2025," he said.
Chris Metcalfe, chief investment officer at Iboss Asset Management, said this means the dynamics of the UK-European dynamics have changed.
"For foreign investors, there is reason to choose a country in the EU region since 2016, mainly because it is just a larger market," he told CNBC on Tuesday.
""While Trump's tariff policy looks confusing and incredible, it's hard to see him turn the process around and impose more tariffs in the UK rather than the EU. This undoubtedly creates a positive background for attracting American companies and investing in the UK, especially given the political chaos in France and Germany. "