Mike Dolan
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With the month ending Wednesday, the U.S. market anger at the U.S. market has calmed down in April, it is time to consider the cost of the actual economy.
Today's Market Minutes
*U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he does not support President Donald Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China are underway.
*Trump urges Russia to stop its attacks in Ukraine and advises Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to prepare to abandon Crimea as the price of a peace deal with Russia.
* Canadian prosecutors charged a 30-year-old Vancouver resident with murder for killing at least 11 people and injured dozens of people after he hit a crowd at the Philippines Community Festival in western Canada.
* According to most economists in Reuters polls, the risk is high. The global economy will fall into recession this year.
* Since the euro's surprise announcement, euro revenue may have lowered at least a few percentage points of European companies' revenue since the euro's surprise announcement, which increases the impact of the tax itself.
Trump's tariff losses
Last week, some signs of a downgrade in the U.S.-China trade war encouraged a rally in Wall Street stocks, while U.S. Treasury and the dollar were stabilized by President Donald Trump's claim that he was not going to fire Jerome Powell despite his attack on the Fed's chairman.
However, as neither major economic or corporate concerns have been addressed in the past few months, anxiety remains and policy visibility remains low.
U.S. stock index futures were once again slightly red before opening Monday. Despite a rebound last week, the S&P 500 has fallen 2.6% since the Trump tariff announcement on April 2 and has fallen 6.5% in the year to date. Nasdaq's Nasdaq still fell 11% in 2025.
Over the weekend, some trade mitigations last week were somewhat reversal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not confirm Trump's claims on the ongoing tariff talks with China and said he did not know if the U.S. president had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Now, the attention shifts to the charges for Trump’s first 100 days of office work, which pays for the real economy. This milestone will be marked on Wednesday.
Although the GDP estimates for the first quarter since the April 2 tariff announcement did not capture the period, there is still a significant risk of negative growth negative printing.
Company earnings in the first quarter will also continue to be popular, with about 40% of the S&P 500 companies reporting this week, with four of them once the "magnificent Seven" giants - Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon - reporting Wednesday and Thursday. The key focus will be on the rest of the company's time.
This week will be in Friday's April employment report, with more latest labor market reports. The weekly unemployment figure shows that job status is performing well, making the Fed focus on the potential price of tariffs worsen.
However, the March inflation rate in the personal consumption spending series, one of the Fed's most closely watched, is also expected to remain benign when it is issued on Wednesday. However, this may just be the calm before the storm.
The U.S. bond market will closely monitor the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates and plans. Monday's first thing was subdued for 10 years of yield after concerns about Fed's independence last week caused last week's upset.
The dollar index is slightly firmer, and Canada's dollar is weaker as the country travels to polls on Monday. Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party appears ready to return to power, a result that seems unlikely to come before Trump's inauguration, tariff plans and threats to Canadian sovereignty.
The dollar fell slightly against the yen, and the Bank of Japan may again resist interest rates increase at its meeting this week as tariff uncertainty dipped in the amount of rising inflation.
Japan's top currency diplomat Attsushi Mimura denied a media report on Monday that Scott Bessent told his Japanese counterparts at a bilateral meeting in Washington that his yen was weak and a strong yen was desirable.
Daily pictures
In the first estimate of GDP for the first quarter, which will be held on Wednesday in the first quarter, the Atlanta Fed closely watched model of the “GDPNOW” still shows a real GDP contraction for the three months to March, both on the title basis and having an impact on net trade during that period when adjusting for high-value imports.
The consensus among economic forecasters is a modest expansion of 0.4%, which is still slower than the 2.4% growth rate in the last quarter of last year. While GDP statistics may be distorted and revised continuously, the first quarter contraction will be an ominous sign, especially since it will happen ahead of the April 2 global tariff announcement. This will also increase the risk of a technical recession that can be recorded in the first half of the year.
Events to watch today
*In Canadian elections
*Dallas Federal Reserve April Manufacturing Survey
*European Central Bank's annual report for 2024, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos. Finnish Governor Olli Rehn speaks
* US company revenue: Domino's Pizza, Cadence Design, NXP Semiconductor, Teradyne, Universal Health, Cincinnati Financial, Nucor, Brown & Brown, F5, F5, Revvity, Roper, Roper, Wastower, Welltower, Welltower, Alexandria Real Estate, Alexandria Real Estate,
*U.S. Treasury quarterly loan estimates
(Edited by Mike Dolan, Anna Szymanski; Mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)