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"People are very satisfied with this president," President Donald Trump said in an interview. Atlantic last week. “I have a great poll.”
That wasn't true then, and it's not even true now. When Trump took office on his 100th day today, pollsters have been publishing new surveys, and the results are ugly. NBC News found that 55% of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of the work, but it's rosy, while 59% of CNN polls. ABC News/Washington Post The poll found that only 39% of Americans favored Trump's performance, the lowest ever, dating back to 1945 and smashed in a 42% record set in 2017 by a Donald Trump.
According to the Institute of Public Religion, more than half of Americans say Trump is a "dangerous dictator who should be restricted before undermining American democracy." NPR was asked to give Trump the first 100 days to give Trump a post, with 45% of Americans giving the president F, which included 49% of independents. 60% believe that the country is taking the wrong path according to NBC.
These numbers also extend to specific issues. Historically, immigration is one of Trump's most powerful problems, but ABC/postal Polls found that more voters now disapprove of his handling rather than approve it. NPR said the economy may be the decisive issue in November, but less than four out of 10 people now agree with Trump's handling. Relatedly, consumer confidence has been at its worst since the coronavirus pandemic. Trump has often promised historic president and he is delivering it.
When looking at these numbers, one temptation is to say that they don't matter. Many, including staff at this magazine, have warned that the second time President Trump could go wrong and that most support Trump anyway, and that the only important poll (as the saying goes) is an Election Day one. Trump now has power, he is waving it. This is especially true, because Trump is less responsive to indicators such as the stock market than in the past. Despite his quasi-joke about seeking a third term, his behavior has lifted the pressure of re-election.
All are true, but that's not the whole truth. The unpopular president is a less powerful president. Without public support, dictatorial attitudes (although not impossible), while other institutions (Republicans, universities, law firms) are unlikely to bend over if they see weaknesses.
One way you can tell these polls have some effect is that Trump exerts anger at them. Yesterday, he posted these on "Social Truth" on "Social Truth" that were "fake polls by fake news agencies" and added that "the investigation should be conducted on election fraud...the real enemy of the people!" (Trump attributed his analysis to his poller John McLaughlin, who was famous for his 2014 defeat by Eric Cantor. He also sued poller J. Ann Selzer, who released a poll late in the election cycle that showed Kamala Harris was slightly ahead in Iowa. Selzer's polls caused madness, but it turned out to be a mistake-one might think it was enough punishment. (Legal experts are skeptical of Trump's lawsuit.)
Pollers’ suspicion is not unfounded. The poll recently had some brutal mistakes, although polls were conducted at the end of the game, and the final 2024 results tracked it carefully. As strategist Michael Podhorzer wrote, pollers show their work as experience, but polls are actually journalistic, not partisan in some sense, but based on assumptions about voters, such as how many young voters will have for how many years, and how many college degrees there are. Some of these assumptions are inevitably more accurate than others. One of the more credible things that I mentioned here is that they all move in the same general direction. Can they tell us how many percentages of the population Trump actually disapproves? Unreliable. But all that said, they tell a consistent story, which also coincides with a series of worrying economic indicators that darken American views.
What’s interesting about Trump’s anger at the voting error is that, if anything, their tendency to underestimate his support benefits him. In 2016, Trump was able to partially exploit voter indifference because of expectations of Hillary Clinton’s victory. More importantly, FBI director James Comey later said his decision to re-announce Clinton’s October 2016 survey of Clinton’s emails was subject to a poll-driven assumption that Clinton would win on the walk. Instead, analyst Nate Silver calculated that the announcement made her election. Eight years later, the unrealistic rose poll convinced Democrat Joe Biden to compete for reelection against Trump, which allowed him to compete and then last too long in the game. Unfortunately for Trump, he is unlikely to encounter similar voting errors outside the positive perspective of the election. The question polls are more consistent in clarifying changes in sentiment.
Trump's impulse is always the shooting messenger, but the messenger is not Trump's problem here. This is the message sent to him by the voters.
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Stephanie Bai contributed to the newsletter.
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