Resources always determine power. The British Empire's command of coal helped to expand the realm to the end of the earth. The United States, as the main oil force, entered World War II and has integrated global supply for decades. In this century, electricity can be built on batteries, solar panels and artificial intelligence. China has grip on minerals - mineral elements, lithium, graphite, and needs to make them manufactured.

Both Washington's sides seem to agree that undermining Beijing's monopoly on the material would benefit the United States. "Our national and economic security is now severely threatened by our dependence on mineral production against foreign powers," President Donald Trump wrote in an executive order in March. The government has already green rare mines in California, already green on the only active mine in the United States, and has added 10 more mines today and 10 more mines to the list of projects that allow the federal government to quickly track. It also raised flashy and controversial ideas to secure mineral supplies in the United States, including seizing suspicious deposits in Ukraine and Greenland, clearing the roads for the way to create the first mines on deep-sea floors, and investing federal funds directly in U.S. mining companies.

Meanwhile, Trump broke what experts say is the best tool for the federal government to return to the United States. "It's better to meet the demand for minerals by ensuring the clean technology manufacturing market," Milo McBride said. “But we are reducing the demand for these technologies to manufacture.” He told me that at some point the government will have to face the paradox of the mineral security it creates: The country is now smoothing production paths while closing its main destinations.

Graphite supplier Syrah Resources is trapped in the paradox. The company’s Vidalia project in central Louisiana aims to refine graphite into battery-grade materials, providing the first source for the first soft conductive mineral in the United States. (China controls 93% of the world's graphite processing capacity.) Syrah is an Australian company, but in the United States it is both a potential market for graphite and a policy designed to encourage production. When the plant starts producing graphite in February 2024, Syrah may bet on something to phase out its investment.

Under the Biden administration, the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office provided $102 million in loans to support the facility. The State Council intends to compete with China for mineral-rich African countries and has formulated a 10-year strategy to strengthen ties with Mozambique, from which Sila gains refinement of ores. (For example, the plan includes improved transportation infrastructure, which will help bring these rocks to ports.) And the country’s landmark climate infrastructure law, the Lower Inflation Act, to redirect mineral supply chains from China: its electric vehicle tax credit provides a large reward composed of U.S.-made U.S. batteries.

A year later, these federal policies are changing dramatically. The Trump administration is covering up the loan program office, which can cut up as much as 60% of the workforce. Commodities from Mozambique now face a 16% tax at U.S. ports; tariffs also increase the cost of equipment needed to mine and process minerals, most of which are purchased from China, noted Kwasi Ampofo, a leading mining and mineral analyst at Bloomberg Energy Consulting. Republicans in Congress are almost certain to abolish the IRA’s electric vehicle tax credit.

According to data analysis by the research team E2, plans for nearly $8 billion worth of clean energy projects have been canceled this year, mostly factories for batteries and electric vehicles. To fulfill his campaign promises for what he called a "green new scam," Trump appears to be jeopardizing the domestic mineral supply of the military and industrial he supports.

“From a defense and aerospace perspective, the government is clearly concerned about rare earths, and I have seen players in the battery industry break away from electric vehicles in Washington’s rhetoric and advocacy and use themselves as strategic technology as the grid and the strategic technology of resilience and defense, seaver wang, a researcher around policy around climate technology, and a researcher on the throne of Wang, I will focus myself around technology around strategy. “But we know electric vehicles are about 80% of demand.” ” (Electric vehicles will account for 80% of global battery capacity in the future, according to the International Energy Agency.)

And, if no one buys these resources at home, the United States will not be able to gain the advantage of mining and minerals. "There is no clear, consistent demand signal, and no mining company will make a drill on the ground to invest in a drill bit," Ampofo told me. He described it as a chicken and egg where "if the chicken is killed, there is no egg."

Even some government efforts to allow new mines and processing plants to be easier may have backfired. Ostensibly to help such companies, the White House ordered federal agencies to revoke regulations that implement the National Environmental Policy Act; as the regulations remain in books and Congress has not yet proposed an axe, legal experts warn that much of the government's proposals will inspire uncertainty, which will spur lawsuits and conflict with decades of case law. Projects that excavate and handle minerals have long lead times and are highly upfront costs including labor, licensing and related litigation. These dynamics mean that for investors, “you have very low tolerance for risk and uncertainty,” Arnab Datta, an expert on key U.S. mineral policies, told me. “This administration adds uncertainty and confusion in every part of the equation.”

The White House did not return my request for comment. However, its strategy seems to be based on simple arithmetic, i.e. if you make mines easier to open and harder to import minerals, you will get a domestic boom. It's not entirely illogical: After the 2024 presidential election, on an industry podcast, Shiraz CEO Shaun Verner said tariffs could offset the loss of losing the electric vehicle tax credit by raising the cost of imported materials, giving the company's Louisiana factory price advantage. But government mathematics missed some key variables. If a country wants a large amount of minerals to provide batteries for a buyer, such as military drone manufacturers, it helps ensure the demand of a richer buyer, such as automakers and about 238 million Americans driving cars. To quickly move the mineral supply chain away from competitive countries, decades have spent building its industrial base, which helps attract allies that not only leverage resources, but also share the reserves you can share. Trump's formula ignores the fact that blanket tariffs may make domestic minerals more competitive, while also increasing the cost of equipment needed to produce these metals.

Meanwhile, China is following its own logic, which controls more variables. In March, Financial Times "In the past year, at least half of the provincial governments in China, including those in resource-generating areas such as Xinjiang, and half of the resource-generating areas in Xinjiang," the report said. "Even outside China, Beijing has set prices for global contracts. When financiers determine the price of a ton of lithium, they turn to the locations set by these prices, which (thanks to China's dominance) are usually in Asia. This means that the transaction price between the Tesla factory in Texas and the Lithium mine in Quebec ultimately depends on how much China sells in places like Vietnam.

Data told me that the United States could establish a comprehensive market with countries like Australia, Brazil and Canada by establishing alliances with other producers and establishing a comprehensive market for contracts. That's the Biden administration's goal; the electric vehicle tax credit is treated with allies with free trade agreements with the United States. For these countries, U.S. minerals should provide less risky alternatives with China. But, Data said: "We've gotten angry with everyone, all of these countries want to stay away from the United States."