"It will be a long and long negotiation," said Warren Maruyama, who worked on the trade deal with the George W. Bush administration as general counsel for the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. "You can hope that your trading partner is stupid and will agree to a good deal. But, in most cases, most foreign trade negotiators are good, and it's usually a very cruel head-to-head negotiation between two mature countries doing trade deals."
The tensions Trump injected in recent weeks may also increase the complexity faced by U.S. officials sitting opposite foreign rivals, who may feel they have no clear understanding of what the U.S. offers, where the red line is or what it achieves from the trade agreement.
“I think it will be a challenge for many trading partners who feel they are negotiating with guns and negotiating with unreliable governments,” said Alex Jacquez, who worked for the National Economic Commission during the Biden administration.
“You’re just negotiating in a climate where you don’t know what your peers want at the end of the day or what they’re going to do during the transition,” Jacques said. “So if you’re just getting hit for that, there’s no motivation to come to the table.”
Still, U.S. officials say they are close to other deals next month. By Wednesday, the Trump administration hopes countries will submit best trade proposals, including proposals to buy U.S. industrial and agricultural supplies, to speed up negotiations, Reuters reported.
An official from the Office of the Trade Representative said in response to the report: “Productive negotiations with many key trading partners continue to be at a rapid pace. Interests from all parties have taken stock of progress and assessed any next steps.”
Nevertheless, a tentative trade agreement was reached with the UK in 60 days, although it has not yet been formally formalized. Trump suggested last month that he might just inform most countries of tariff rates after a 90-day pause because the United States lacks bandwidth to negotiate with each country.
This is where it is now.
Last month, Trump said he had suspended his massive tariffs on China since April, after senior U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to discuss their trade issues and reduce tensions at a meeting in Switzerland.
The Detente cracks began to appear after a week's suspension of tariffs. Chinese officials accused the U.S. of undermining the trade armistice they arrived at after the Commerce Department warned companies to use Chinese chips, including chip maker Huawei technology. Chinese officials said the guideline was "discriminatory" and "market distorted."
Last week, Trump accused China of not stopping the end of the truce, posting on social media: "Everyone is happy! This is good news! The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprising to some, is completely breaching the agreement with us. So much because being a good man!"
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with CNBC last week that the Chinese had “slowly” deals reached in Switzerland to relax their retaliatory countermeasures, such as Chinese restrictions on cargoes of rare metals.
"What China is doing is to stop products that are crucial to India and Europe's industrial supply chains. This is not a reliable partner," Finance Minister Scott Bessent said on CBS's "Facing the Country" on Sunday.
The United States and the European Union have been on tax rates shortly after Trump's second term - Europe at one point threatened a 50% tariff on American whiskey, and Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European wines. Trump has accused the EU of being "very bad" to the United States for years and was created to "utilize" the United States.
The two sides began negotiating a trade agreement after Trump suspended his so-called 20% mutual tariffs. But on May 23, the day when U.S. and European trade officials will meet in Washington, Trump threatened on social media to impose a 50% tariff on European goods, saying the group was not moving fast enough to reach a deal. He declared that “we played the game in the way I knew how to play it.”
A few days later, Trump retraceed the threat to postpone the tariffs until July 9, calling with his EU counterpart. Greer described the move as "fire" under the EU and said he now knows "what we want".
But as things seem to have returned to track, Trump said at a steel mill event on Friday that he raised tariffs on steel and aluminum (including from Europe) to 50%, from the 25% he has imposed.
The EU said higher tariffs on steel “suppress ongoing efforts to reach a negotiated solution” and officials are preparing to impose their own countermeasures.
"This decision has increased uncertainty in the global economy and increased costs for consumers and businesses across the Atlantic," an EU spokesman told NBC News.
In recent months, the United States and Japan have held at least four rounds of trade negotiations without any agreement. In a recent meeting, last week, Best and Business Minister Howard Lutnick met with Japanese Economic Minister Ryosei Akazawa for more than two hours.
After that, Akazawa said it would be difficult for the two sides to reach any agreement without the U.S. willing to remove Trump’s tariffs, including 10% tariffs on all products and 25% tariffs on cars, steel, steel and aluminum.
“If it is not possible, then it will be difficult for us to agree to a deal,” Akazawa told reporters after the meeting.
U.S. officials said they “emphasize the importance of leading tariff and non-tariff measures for Akizawa, increasing investment and working together to address economic security and other issues of mutual concern.”
Both sides said they will meet again before the seven summit groups that will begin on June 15, with both Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participating.