This is the gain from this morning's introduction, you can Sign up Receive in your inbox every morning:
It's been a week.
Stocks entered the year's green as investors cheered the U.S.-China trade thawed. Five CEOs reminded me this week that it was a truce, not a deal, and a top Fortune 500 executive who recently met with the Trump administration to discuss tariffs told me that the 30% level could be the new norm unless a major breakthrough was made.
The "Great Seven" tech stocks - Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (Googl), Meta (Meta), Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) - continue their renewal.
Economic Bell Cisco (CSCO) and Wal-Mart (WMT) revenues are not fully absorbed (although they are not perfect).
We even have some history on the Nasdaq. On his IPO day, Etoro (Etor) co-founder and CEO Yoni Assia noted that his father made a software company public in 1991. You will also notice that we are actually our first major “liberation day” IPO, although I have heard at least other big names focusing on the public market will wait until fall.
Through all this crazy activity, you might be surprised at what I really encountered under my skin.
I remind me that absolutely useless earnings estimates and company guidance (if the company decides to issue it) are in the context, and a social media post can blow up the company’s careful financial plan. If you rely on earnings estimates and company guidance to inform you about your investment decision-making process, stop. This is a total waste of time.
"If (the CEO) doesn't get rid of (the coaching)," former Medtronic (MDT) CEO Bill George said in Yahoo Finance's opening podcast. ” “I think they are smart. ”
George told me that outside of the camera, he missed only one earnings estimate in his 10 years as CEO of Medtronic, partly because he thought the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio was too high and wanted to reset expectations more reasonably.
So, this guy - also sitting on the board of Target, Exxonmobil and Goldman Sachs, he knew what he was talking about.
This embedded content is not available in your region.
"When I don't know what the base rule is, I just shoot in the wind and give you the numbers," George explained. "If you tell me what the base rule is, I'll tell you what we're going to do. But I need to have some base rule. I'll tell you when to bring new products to market; I can give you an idea of how we're going to complete our revenue and help you solve the problem."
See what's going on there.
Walmart lowered expectations a few weeks ago in investor activity, reiterating Thursday's full-year earnings forecast. Executives continue that they will start raising prices (in some cases, John David Rainey and Madison Mills told Me and Madison Mills on Yahoo Finance’s Catalysts). If the tariffs return to cutoff levels, it may result in the guidance being outdated.
Stocks were hit. But, the guidance is there. Why bother?
Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz told me last week that he decided to give guidance completely because trade uncertainty might inspire him to price increase in his near future toys. United Airlines (UAL) still has its dual guidance range (many executives have made fun of it privately).
Despite all the confusion, we are still looking for revenue growth in the streets 10% north of this year. How credible is this in this rich climate? It's not.
"I think there will be some winners and losers," said Adam Parker, senior strategist and founder of three student research. "So, picking stocks may be able to navigate through it. But I think the revenues of the whole system are too high, and they will go down. Of course, the stock market will definitely drop, but it will definitely be above normal. And we're about taxes. It's just not satisfied with (stocks).
Maybe I'm doing nothing on this topic. As you think, give me a line on X @briansozzi.
I'm just in the camp and historically, income estimation and guidance are important drivers of stock prices. As far as they are no longer them, I think this is a problem that investors have to face on a challenging issue in 2025.
Brian Sozzi It is the executive editor of Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on X @briansozzi,,,,, Instagram Then continue LinkedIn. Tips about the story? Send an email to brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
Click here to dig into the latest stock market news and events to transfer stock prices
Read Yahoo Finance's latest financial and business news