One of the richest industries in the United States is getting a huge boost from President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, which could be the possible cost of a larger slowdown in other aspects of the U.S. economy.
Trump signed an executive order that increased the 25% tariff on steel imports that he first set in March to 50%. He said last week that tariffs are getting faster and faster. It takes effect at midnight on Wednesday.
"We will increase it from 25% to 50% - tariffs on steel enter the United States of America," Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania.
The new 50% responsibility also affects aluminum products.
Steel tariffs on steel and imported cars and auto parts are obtained by authorities not affected by recent court decisions that have doubts about the president's power to build trade barriers.
US Steel praised Trump's re-push to increase the costs of US companies relying on steel imports. This is a particularly favorable response to their widespread opposition to their tariffs.
"Made in the United States is at the heart of President Trump's revitalization of domestic manufacturing and reinvigorating our country's economic power," the Steel Manufacturers Association said in a statement.
Investors have rewarded steel companies accordingly, and stocks of U.S. steel makers surged on Monday as U.S. steel and aluminum prices rose.
Today, the steel manufacturing industry directly employs 86,000 American workers. This is a small fraction of the industry's half a million labor force calculated in the decade after World War II, although employment levels have stabilized recently.
While trade globalization has a significant responsibility for the decade-long recession of steel, experts say technological advances play an equally important role. Steel production is increasingly centered around so-called arc furnace technology, a more efficient means of production than the classic open furnace business that prevailed for most of the 20th century.
Now, only a small portion of the labor force can achieve the same level as the heyday of steel. Just in the early 1980s, about 10 hours of steel were produced. Nowadays, assuming multiple steel plants work at the same time, it is only one hour faster than a single hour.
"The way we make steel in the United States has changed a lot," said Ken Kolb, a local influencer at the chair of the Department of Sociology at Furman University in South Carolina.
"If a small portion of the job is needed to reach the same level of production, then there is simply no way to bring this scale of employment back," Kolb said.
He estimates that assuming an increase in competency level, perhaps 15,000 new direct jobs could be added. But higher costs in industries that rely on steel inputs such as automobiles, construction and solar panels (aluminum components that rely on tariffs) may negate these benefits.
"In theory, you'll be able to hire some people, but in reality, the tariffs just raise the average price of steel," Kolb said. "When prices of similar commodities rise, businesses buy only less and side investments."
One study found that while Trump's steel tariffs in 2018 created 1,000 new direct jobs, it cost downstream industries that rely on steel to create as many as 75,000 jobs for their products because they are less competitive due to higher costs.
While limited capacity may return online in the near term, the inappropriate nature of the tariffs limits any immediate work gains, said Josh Spoores, head of corporate analysis at CRU Group Consultancy.
Spoores said in an email that there could be new investments if higher tariffs are retained - but building a new steel plant could take at least two years.
It is also not clear that the U.S. steel workers themselves fully agree with the tariffs. In a statement, the United Steel Union only expressed approval of the measure after the Canadian chapter denounced Trump’s announcement.
“While tariffs are used strategically and are a valuable tool to balance scale, we must work with trusted allies like Canada to reform the broader global trading system to control bad actors and continually undermine our industrial sectors,” the coalition said.
The union also showed signs of splitting in terms of the proposed "partnership" between U.S. Steel and Japan's Japanese Steel Company, which he had previously opposed. Trump now believes the deal “creates” as many as 70,000 jobs.
"There's a lot of money," Trump told supporters at a Pennsylvania rally on Friday.
United Steel workers expressed doubts about Japan's arrangements in a statement Friday.
"We have not participated in discussions involving U.S. Steel, Japan Steel and the Trump administration, nor have we consulted, so we cannot speculate on the meaning of the "program partnership" between USS and Nippon," it said.
It continues: “regardless of the transaction structure, our main concern remains that the impact of U.S. steel merger into foreign competitors will generate for national security, our members, and the communities we live and work in.”