Donald Trump's recent trip to the Middle East is shocking. The president visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, but not Israel, ostensibly a major ally of the United States. When asked about the freezing, he insisted that it was not a snub at all: “It’s good for Israel,” Trump said, referring to his willingness to strengthen his alliance with the unnamed Israeli nation.
Trump has made it clear through the whole country that Israel’s attention is not his top priority in the Middle East, and it may have been a while. It is not surprising from the way his government approaches the region. Trump's policies have repeatedly undermined the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and show that divisions between the United States and Israel are expanding.
Most Israelis welcome Trump’s reelection: Almost two-thirds of them believe he will support their interests more than Kamala Harris, for good reason. During his first term, he moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, tore up a nuclear deal with Iran, acknowledged the Israelis' annexation of the Golan Heights, and helped normalize their relations with several Arab countries. Unlike Harris, the same is true of their thoughts, Trump will not compromise with Iran or make them surrender to Hamas. Four months after his administration, their faith is being tested.
Let's start with Iran. For weeks, the United States has been negotiating its nuclear program for the masters of Israel, increasing the likelihood that the Trump administration can reduce sanctions and mitigate its stance on the regime. A deal is not inevitable, but the prospect alone is disgusting for Netanyahu, who hates the previous U.S. nuclear deal and opposes Iran’s signature foreign policy mission.
Gaza has also become the source of disagreement, especially this month, as Israel exacerbates missile strikes in the region. The re-attack offense not only undermined Trump’s (absurd) plan to “take over” the region and rebuild the region as “the Riviera of the Middle East”; it also underscores his failure to end the conflict, which he promised to do in a short time. Netanyahu hopes Hamas is “totally defeated”, a goal he cannot achieve without substantially prolonging the war. But earlier this month, Trump called for a ceasefire, prompting Israel to worry that U.S. support for military movements may not last. In another worrying sign to Israel, the Trump administration recently negotiated the release of Edan Alexander, a dual Israeli citizen, without the involvement of the country. This reinforces Netanyahu's critics who said he hasn't done enough to release the dozens of Israeli hostages remaining, more than 20 of whom are considered alive.
Syria is another pain theme in Israel. On a trip to Saudi Arabia, Trump met with Syria's new head of state Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the first time the U.S. president has met with a leader in the country in 25 years. Trump announced that he is bringing U.S. sanctions and calls them "tempting" and "very amazing." These may not be words that Netanyahu would use. Israel sees al-Sharaa as a threat, especially because of his connection to Al Qaeda’s forward. To weaken his new regime, Israel bombed Syria, established military bases along the common border, and supported the opposition of Druz in Syria. Israeli officials demanded that the Trump administration maintain sanctions. Trump didn't listen.
The United States also violates Israel's interests in Yemen. After the October 7 massacre, Yemen's Hushis began attacking U.S. Navy ships and united in Hamas to launch a missile strike against Israel. The United States responded by attacking Huthis whom Israel applauded. Then, earlier this month, the Trump administration held a ceasefire with Houthis. Israel was explicitly excluded from the deal and worked for itself: the agreement only lasted two days at Houthi missiles that struck the country's main airport, while further strikes against Israel followed a ceasefire.
In the long run, more broadly and even most importantly, the Trump administration is less inclined to play the decisive role the United States has traditionally played in the Middle East, while Israel relies on Israel. Under President Joe Biden, the United States maintained a considerable military presence in the region and provided great support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza, even as his administration urged Israel to urge a ceasefire and work with moderate Palestinians. By contrast, Trump is withdrawing some troops from Syria and equiping his cabinet staff with skeptical officials of his foreign intervention. The U.S. leadership in the Middle East has shaped the region in a way that greatly benefits Israel: stopping and coercing Iran, neutralizing Islamic State and other terrorists, and reconciling moderate Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration will not give up on these roles, but it has already backed off some of them.
However, this does not mean that the United States-Israel alliance is in crisis. Differences will continue to arise, but Israelis have reason to believe that U.S. support will usually remain strong. Most of Trump's advisers still see themselves as supporters of Israel, as are most congressional Republicans. Despite some Israeli fears, Trump seems unlikely to withdraw from their military operations in Gaza, partly because of his little attention to the humanitarian crisis that has been suffered by Palestinians. The president continues to support radical Israeli settlers in the West Bank and has appointed an ambassador, Mike Huckabee, who has supported the Israeli campaign to annex the region. (Ironically, some of these support makes Netanyahu's work a Harder By inciting his alliance's greatest rights, his call for a comprehensive policy change is increasingly difficult to ignore. )
Nevertheless, the situation in Israel has changed fundamentally compared to a few years ago. Compared to previous presidents, Trump is more willing to ignore the country's interests and pursue openly subverting their goals. Israel is unlikely to lose its allies to the United States. But that ally will soon make the Middle East look more threatening.