WASHINGTON — Two centuries of political experience suggest that Donald Trump should sit behind a podium on Monday and watch others take the oath of office, rather than take the oath himself.

Although he lost the 2020 election, he left the White House after leading a botched attempt to retain power. He was later indicted four times and convicted of 34 felonies in a New York criminal case involving hush-money payments to a porn star before the 2016 election.

Three years ago, when he announced he would run for president again, the New York Post, a normally friendly newspaper, dismissed his latest attempt with the cheeky headline "Floridians Announce"; the story ran on page 26.

That's when.

Trump, 78, will complete his improbable comeback at noon, becoming the first former president since Grover Cleveland in 1893 to lose re-election and return to power four years later.

That he won a second term — and a second chance — is a testament to his unique combination of political instincts and grit, as well as to the nation's deep polarization. Even when Republican politicians had seen enough, his loyal supporters never gave up on him.

Capitalizing on voters' frustration with high prices, Trump convinced them that he, a billionaire celebrity with private jets and palatial homes, was the only candidate who wouldn't forget them when he returned to power.

He swept all seven swing states and, most importantly, won the popular vote. What propelled his candidacy was precisely a character trait that many Democrats found off-putting: his willingness to flout convention, break norms and shake up a federal bureaucracy that seemed irrelevant to Americans' day-to-day concerns.

Millions of voters wanted someone unfriendly, and in the often bellicose, foul-mouthed Trump they saw their apolitical supporters.

"Trump remains popular because the Republican base still wants to see a boxer in that role," said Brandon Rottinghouse, a political science professor at the University of Houston. "All odds point to the Republican Party cutting ties with Trump." . But his ability to unite voters — and have his finger on the pulse of the most staunch Republicans — secured him a second term.”

Luck also played a role. At a campaign rally in Butler, Pa., last summer, an assassin's bullet caused his ear to bleed instead of piercing his skull because he turned his head at just the right moment to look at a chart.

Trump faced slim opposition in both the 2016 and '24 campaigns. Aging President Joe Biden abruptly abandoned his campaign in July, leaving his chosen successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, with just four months to develop a viable candidacy.

"Trump is probably the luckiest politician in my lifetime," said Republican pollster Whit Ayers. "This guy is so lucky!"

Trump will have a wealth of political capital when he takes office and can spend as he pleases. His party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate, albeit by a slim margin. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, owed his office to Trump. So did many of the Republican lawmakers who received the endorsements Trump coveted.

For their part, Democrats are in despair and disarray, with Biden's approval ratings hovering in the 30s and his legacy tarnished by his party's crushing defeats.

“We became a party that was out of touch with reality — listening to the elites and talking to them,” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. "Unless we start really listening to the problems of working-class and middle-class Americans and looking at livelihood issues and starting talking about them in a normal way, we're going to face continued political backlash."

Trump, who has filled the power vacuum following the Nov. 5 election as Biden exits, made the statement at his seaside resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

He said he wanted the United States to acquire Greenland.

And Canada.

And the Panama Canal.

He hit the caps lock button on the social media platform and warned that if the hostages held by Hamas were not released, "there will be a heavy price for everything." He dispatched Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff to help Israel and Hamas reach the ceasefire announced last week.

With foreign capitals looking on, world leaders have returned to interpreting Trump's true intentions and plans. Are his threats real or just a bluff? A question first raised nine years ago has become more pressing: Should Trump be taken seriously, literally, or both? A Canadian official speculates that Trump's call for Canada to become the 51st state is just a joke, and a bad one at that.

"We think it's a positioning," the official said in an interview. "President-elect Trump is a businessman and a negotiator, and many of the threats have to do with things at the border that he wants to see changed."

"We're not going to be the 51st state. That's not going to happen," the official continued. "Initially, it was viewed as a joke. We really don't think it's funny anymore. The joke has passed its sell-by date."

The hardest part begins at noon, when the 45th president becomes the 47th president. Trump has set the bar high for himself, promising massive changes from day one.

Trump told NBC News' "Meet the Press" host Kristen Welker on Saturday that he plans to sign a "record" number of executive orders upon taking office.

He has vowed to deport large numbers of immigrants living in the United States illegally. He said he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine within "24 hours" of taking office, or even sooner.

When Welker asked him last month if he still planned to end birthright citizenship on his first day in office, Trump said, "Absolutely."

None of this is easy. Sources close to the Ukrainian government told NBC News that Trump's foreign policy team has yet to make a peace proposal to Ukraine's leadership.

Legal experts say the 14th Amendment provides for birthright citizenship and cannot be revoked by law or executive order.

"Certainly, the law does not allow for the termination of birthright citizenship by executive order or act of Congress," said Lawrence Tribe, professor emeritus of constitutional law at Harvard University. “Only a constitutional amendment that changes the wording of the Fourteenth Amendment can produce fundamental changes to our nation’s legal and political system.”

Ultimately, Trump's most politically consequential challenge may be lowering prices. Cumulative inflation under Biden has exceeded 20%, compared with less than 8% during Trump’s first term — one reason hopeful voters have returned him to power.

If Trump can't bring some relief to Americans at gas stations and grocery stores, he could face backlash in the 2026 midterm elections.

In an interview with Time a few weeks after his victory, Trump said he had reset expectations, saying, "I want grocery prices to be lower. Once things go up, it's hard to go back down. You know, it's very difficult."

The 2026 midterm elections will prove to be a reckoning for Trump. Democrats hope this election will mark the beginning of their resurgence. If they regain control of the House and Senate, they will be able to thwart Trump's judicial nominations and legislative agenda. Additionally, they have subpoena powers that would allow them to launch an investigation into Trump's dealings. Concerned about this prospect, the Republican National Committee has begun considering the upcoming election.

"If we allow Democrats to take back control of the House and Senate, everything will change," Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley told members at the party's winter conference on Friday. "The radical left will immediately stop President Trump's agenda. They will resurrect the worst legal excesses we have dealt with in the past eight years."

“We’re going to see headlines about impeachment proceedings and useless Democratic political stunts,” Whatley added. "We can't let this happen again."

Whatever happens, Trump already occupies a unique place in the long history of America’s experiment in self-government. If he loses in November, his first term may be viewed as a throwaway, a reaction to the cautious centrism epitomized by his 2016 opponent Hillary Clinton.

His return shows that Trumpism is a real and powerful movement. Whether it can be sustained when Trump finally leaves the stage is another question.

"Let's face it. Donald Trump is unique," Ayers said. "There's no one out there like him. No one in either party has his combination of bravado, charisma, political instincts and entertainment value. It's hard to imagine Trumpism without Donald Trump."

Trump is also hard to imagine. At a campaign stop in Michigan toward the end of the race, he speculated on who might succeed him in 2028.

"Four years from now, someone's going to go down, and that person's going to be as hot as a pistol," he said. "You know what? They're going to draw about 300 people."