In a typically blunt move, Donald Trump first warned in December that the Middle East would "pay a heavy price" if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before he took office.

The US president-elect's bellicose tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled negotiations that culminated in a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday that ended a devastating 15 months of war in Gaza and Released 98 remaining prisoners held in Gaza. strip.

Steve Witkoff, Trump's New York real estate friend who later became the Middle East envoy, played a central role in shuttling Qatar and Israel, which hosted the talks, as mediators ended up with the Biden administration's long-term deal. An agreement that failed to be reached.

This should mean that Gazans, who have suffered immeasurably in the deadliest war in history, can finally get some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and can start thinking about reconstruction for now.

Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages will begin to hope that their nightmare is over since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials. If the agreement is successful, these prisoners trapped in Hamas's tunnel network will be released.

The key question is whether it can last. Will this be a temporary ceasefire, or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that mediators, Palestinians and the wider region desperately want?

Trump has claimed victory in helping to reach a deal that President Joe Biden failed to reach. But the longevity of the truce brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt may depend on his willingness to continue to use American political muscle, including ensuring that the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu completes the deal.

Trump, whose incoming administration is filled with staunchly pro-Israel figures, has shown little sympathy or patience for the Palestinians during his first term as he implemented a series of pro-Israel measures that upended the U.S. Decades of policy. But hopefully Trump will now seek to sign the deal and ensure its success.

However, all parties will face the risk of disruption, including from Hamas, whose military capabilities have been severely reduced but not eliminated.

The ceasefire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first backed in May. It will begin with a 42-day truce, during which 33 hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, will be released in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops should be redeployed from urban centers and aid should be allowed to flow into strips plagued by famine and disease.

More challenging is the second phase, which aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages, including Israeli soldiers, and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.

At this stage, the specifics remain to be negotiated and Netanyahu's commitment will be fully tested.

He has repeatedly ruled out agreeing to a permanent end to the war or withdrawing troops from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, is demanding the release of high-ranking prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murder and terrorism, in exchange for soldiers being held hostage - a bitter pill for Israelis.

Netanyahu already faces resistance from far-right allies as well as ministers Itamar Ben-Gver and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotridge described the deal as a "capitulation"; Ben Gwell this week called on Smotridge to join him in resigning from government.

Although the entry of another right-wing party in September strengthened the veteran prime minister's governing coalition, the departures of Ben Gwire and Smotrich will still leave him with a minority government. That could force Netanyahu to call early elections, bringing about the political reckoning at the ballot box that he has been trying to avoid.

The key question of who will be responsible for the film remains unclear. Israel, the United States and Arab states all want Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, to regain control, but Netanyahu has yet to come up with a viable plan for "day two" after the war. He has resisted pressure from the United States and Arab states to cooperate with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.

He strongly opposes any move to establish a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.

The Biden administration has been discussing with Arab partners for months the possibility of forming an international security force that would work with the Palestinian Authority-backed interim Palestinian government, which includes Gazans, on civilian affairs.

But the United States will not put troops on the ground, given the risk of becoming entangled in the insurgency and being seen as doing Israel's bidding, and it's unclear who, if anyone, will do so. It's unclear whether Trump will present his own plan or even if he has considered Gaza's future after Inauguration Day.

However, the needs of Gazans could not be more urgent. According to Palestinian officials, the Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, including civilians and combatants. Entire families were wiped out, and a generation of children were orphaned and scarred for life.

Schools, hospitals, homes, offices and businesses were destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been forced from their homes. Many have no idea what they will find when they return.

Trump is likely to focus on pushing for a major deal to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Riyadh insists this will only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.

With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or increase hostilities with Iran than make concessions to the Palestinians.

It took nearly a year of negotiations to stop the war. But compared with the daunting task of rebuilding Gaza, let alone the long-elusive goal of sustainable peace in the region, that may prove to be the easy part.