But not for the reasons he or Biden’s critics say
Today, after 15 months of brutal war, Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to secure the release of Israeli hostages and a cessation of hostilities in Gaza. The first six weeks of the deal will see Israel withdraw its troops from much of the enclave and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including convicted mass murderers, in exchange for Hamas releasing 33 captured Israelis — —Some alive, some dead. If all goes according to plan, ensuing negotiations will ensure the release of remaining Israeli hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza during the second and third phases of the agreement.
Despite the headlines and handshakes, the issue is far from resolved, given the shaky nature of the deal's staged structure. The deal must also be approved by the Israeli cabinet. If that happens, the next few weeks will be painful, as returning Gaza refugees find out whether their homes still exist and the families of Israeli hostages find out whether their loved ones are still alive.
Still, the tentative agreement is a victory for the foreign policy teams of Joe Biden and President Donald Trump, who worked with regional partners Qatar and Egypt to achieve the goal. The provisions largely echo a proposal Biden himself proposed in May 2024, but the incoming president dragged the parties across the finish line. What has changed is not Washington’s overall approach to the conflict. Far from putting pressure on Israel, Trump said during the 2024 campaign that he would further support Israel's stance and repeatedly attacked Biden for restricting arms sales to Israel. But the gesture could help both sides reach consensus: Hamas could reasonably presume it would not reach a better deal during Trump's presidency, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right The government may agree to this arrangement in order to remain in the interest of the new leader. He was favored upon taking office.
Far-right Israeli lawmakers, who hold the fringes of power in Netanyahu's coalition, have previously threatened that a deal would collapse if Hamas was not completely defeated from Gaza. But with Trump back, activists have set their sights on bigger goals, such as annexing the West Bank — which the Palestinians claim is their future state — and are unwilling to pass up such an opportunity. Therefore, they may vote against the ceasefire but keep Netanyahu in power so that he can implement it.
In other words, it’s not that Trump has a stick for defeating Israel that Biden doesn’t have; Rather, his presidency offers the prospect of carrots that Biden will never offer. It is not so much the president-elect's pressure as his underlying promise that has kept Israel's far right on side. For Trump, everything is a deal, and for his would-be suitors — not just Israel but Hamas’ backers in Qatar — the Gaza ceasefire is just a down payment.
On the Palestinian side, the deal marks a brief, albeit pyrrhic, victory for battered Hamas, which will claim to have outlasted Israeli forces and keep some freed prisoners in Gaza. Parades in the streets. But with its leaders killed and its territory devastated, the group will have nothing to celebrate or display its atrocities on October 7. The terrorist group may continue to impose its will through force, but is deeply unpopular in its own backyard. to recent polls.
At the same time, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the elimination of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the overthrow of the pro-Iranian regime in Syria, and the collapse of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, if a deal can be reached, Netanyahu There is reason to claim victory. If not, or if Hamas is not active enough in negotiations over the remaining hostages, it has a new U.S. president in office who might be happy to support a resumption of hostilities.
Fortunately, the guns may be quieting now, but if history is any indication, the long war between Israel and Hamas will continue in one form or another.